Kindafrika. China, India and Africa are creating tomorrow's world

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

In 2014, the book Kindafrika was published in France. China, India and Africa are creating tomorrow's world”J.-J. Boileau and S. Dembinsky. It is difficult to say whether the term "Kindafrika", which unites China, India and Africa, will take root - most likely not, too different worlds are squeezed into it.

However, operatively-empirically, the term "Kindafrika" can be used as an eyepiece or, as Isaac Asimov would say, to "look from a height" at three rising blocks, the demographic and economic (at least China and India) weight of which will really play everything a great role in the fate of the world in general and the Post-West, Pax Occidentalica in particular.

According to the authors of the book, in 2030–2050. this role (of course, if there is no global catastrophe) in many respects will be decisive.

The controversy surrounding Kindafrika is a good reason to look at the three parts of it. At the same time, it makes sense to take a closer look at Africa (we are talking about Africa south of the Sahara, i.e. about "black", Negro, non-Arab, or, as it is also called, "sub-Saharan" Africa), since about China and (in to a lesser extent) there is already quite a lot of writing about India. Africa is often out of focus. It is not right.

Firstly, Africa is the resource base of a significant part of the world in the second half of the 21st century, and therefore interested structures are slowly beginning to take over its hands ("second colonization");

Secondly, demographic and other processes developing in Africa towards social hopelessness are fraught with problems, at least for Western Europe.

So far it is being mastered mainly by the Arabs, but sooner or later, as the African situation worsens, the “superfluous”, “unprofitable” people of the black continent will rush to Europe, and Yesenin's lines “Black man! You are a very bad guest! will acquire practical importance for Western Europeans.

So about present-day Africa even now, paraphrasing P. Ershov, one can say: "It will bring a lot, a lot of restlessness with it."

Western Europeans and Americans in the 19th – 20th centuries. their actions in Asia and Africa have woken up famously and are now dealing with recoil. This is exactly how - "Blowback" called his book by the American analyst Charles Johnson, a recognized expert on Japan and anti-guerrilla warfare.

By recoil, he meant, among other things, a wave of political violence directed against the West by the Afro-Asian world in the first half of the 21st century. in response to what the colonialists did in this world in the twentieth century. The demographic fist is what brings the Afro-Asian world to the European nose.

According to forecasts, in 2030 the population of China will be 1.5 billion, India - 1.5 billion, Africa - 1.5 billion (while the two countries, Nigeria and Ethiopia, together will provide 400 million people), and in 2050 The population of Africa can reach 2 billion.

In other words, in a decade and a half, half of humanity will live in Kindafrika, and the bulk of this half, especially in India and Africa, will be represented by young people - in contrast to the aging and shrinking population of Europe.

It should be noted here, however, that the traditional size estimate of China (and India) is disputed by some. Some, for example, the late A. N. Anisimov, believe that this estimate is underestimated and China needs to add 200 million.

Others, like V. Mekhov, who recently published his calculations on the Internet, believe that the population of China and, in general, all the so-called demographic giants of Asia is overestimated and, in reality, is significantly less.

In particular, the population of the PRC, according to V. Mekhov, is not 1 billion 347 million, but at best - 500-700 million.

Firstly, he emphasizes that there are no exact demographic data, all data are estimates. Historical data vary by tens of millions. So, according to one source, in China in 1940.there were 430 million, and according to others - 350 million in 1939.

Secondly, according to V. Mekhov, the Asians well understood that the population size is their strategic weapon, and therefore are interested in overestimating the numbers. In 2011, the share of the urban population of the PRC for the first time exceeded half - 51, 27%. If we consider that the population of the largest cities in the PRC is 230-300 million people, then, Mekhov writes, according to this logic, it turns out that the population of China is 600 million, no more than 700 million.

It's the same with India: 75 million live in the 20 largest cities. Where is another billion? If there is one, then the population density is 400 people. for 1 sq. km. According to statistics, 70% of Indians live in villages, i.e. 75 million is 30%. It turns out that the population is no more than 300 million.

I have something to object to these calculations, but in this case, the main thing for me is to pay attention to them and give the reader an opportunity to think for himself, but I will continue to adhere to the traditional assessment.

There was a time when Europe showed high rates of population growth: at the end of the Middle Ages, Europeans accounted for 12% of humanity, in 1820 - 16.5%, on the eve of the First World War - 25%. And then the proportion of white Europeans in the world population began to decline.

Today, according to various estimates, it fluctuates between 8% and 12% - is the demographic return of the West to the Middle Ages? In addition, today in Western Europe and the United States, people over 70 years old make up 25% of the population, in 2030 they will be more than 30%. We see the demographic decline of the white race and its aging, in "Kindafrika" - the opposite picture.

By the way, whites are the only race whose numbers are constantly decreasing. And something is not heard the alarmed voices of politicians, anthropologists, ecologists, hysterically shaking about the reduction or threat of extinction of any species of arachnids, fish or endocannibals of the Yanomami tribe (lives on the border of Brazil and Venezuela). Do you feel sorry for the Whites? But what about equality? Or are we living in an era of anti-white racism? But this is by the way.

The population of "Kindafrika" at the beginning of our era was 70% of the world population, in 1950 - 45% (they accounted for 4% of the world's wealth). For 2030, demographers give the following forecast: North and South America - about 13% of the world population; Europe with the Middle East and Africa - 31%; "Chinese" Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia) - 29%; "Indian" Asia (formerly British India) - 27%.

The figures for the age composition of the 15-24 year old cohort are even more impressive. In 2005, in China, it totaled 224 million, in 2030 in China, 177 million are predicted - a decrease of almost 50 million; in India - 242 million, in Africa - about 300 million (almost a third or a quarter of the size of this world cohort). And this despite the fact that in 2000 the average life expectancy in Africa was 52 years, in India - 63 years, in China - 70 years.

In general, 223 people are born every minute in the world (173 of them are in 122 underdeveloped countries). In 1997, the birth rate in the world was 24 per thousand, in Africa - 40. In 1997, 15% of births in the world were African, in 2025 there will be 22%, and by that time 50% of the African population will live in cities (in Latin America - 70%), the world average is 60–65%.

At the same time, demographically, sub-Saharan Africa is heterogeneous. Experts identify four demographic models in it.

1. "Demographic bomb". These are primarily Nigeria and Mali, as well as Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Angola, Congo (formerly fr.), Chad, Uganda, Somalia. In 1950, 90 million people lived in these countries, in 2040 there will be 800 million.

2. "Stable option" with some population decline: Senegal, Gambia, Gabon, Eritrea, Sudan. Now - 140 million, by 2040 the population of this group of countries should decrease by 5-10%.

3. Model associated with the active impact of AIDS. According to various estimates, between 25 and 40 million Africans are HIV-positive, and only 0.5-1% of them have access to the necessary drugs. 90% of those infected are under 15 years of age.

The classic case is Zimbabwe (in the capital, Harare, AIDS is the main factor in mortality for 25% of the population), as well as the whole of southern Africa. Outside this region, HIV is raging in Tanzania, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon. However, with all the inhibitory effects of AIDS, the population will grow here too, although not in the same way as in the countries of the first model. In 1950, the population of these countries was 46 million, in 2040 260 million are predicted (for South Africa these figures are 56 million and 80 million, respectively).

4. A model driven by surges in war-related mortality. These are Sierra Leone, Burundi, Rwanda, DR Congo. Here, too, growth, but again not like in the countries of the first model: 80 million in 1950, 180 million in 2040.

In other words, by 2030–2040. in Africa there will be a huge number of "extra people", and not at all "Onegin" and "Pechorin" - it will be another human material. One of the means of solving the problems of the surplus population is migration to a place “where it is clean and light”.

Moreover, for a large part of Africans there is almost no work in Africa: Africa today gives 1.1% of world industrial production, and its share in the global GDP has decreased from 12.8% in 2000 to 10.5% in 2008.

Today, Africans, using their ethnic networks, migrate mainly to France and Belgium, as well as to the UK and Italy. In 2010, Africa provided 19 million migrants (10% of world migration). In the last year of the twentieth century. 130 thousand people migrated to Europe from Africa; for 2030, it is projected from 700 thousand to 1.6 million.

However, there are other forecasts: from 9 to 15 million. If they come true, then from 2 to 8% of the European population will be Africans. This is not so much, but the fact is that they are compactly concentrated in the largest cities, and this changes the situation.

The small number of migrants from Africa can be easily explained: the African middle stratum (these are 60 million households with an income of $ 5,000 or more per capita per year) simply does not have the money to emigrate. Well, if the “middle” do not have money, then what can we say about the bulk ?! After all, 50% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa live on less than $ 1 a day, they do not migrate (in general, 2 billion people in the world have less than $ 2 a day).

Those who live in Africa on $ 2 a day migrate, but not far from their place of residence, mainly to nearby cities. In this regard, even intra-African migration is not so great: 23 million people. in 2000, by now it has increased insignificantly.

On their continent, Africans migrate mainly to Algeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Morocco and Nigeria. In contrast to the internal migrations of India and China, intra-African ones give rise to ethnic conflicts. This is understandable: China and India are entire states, and China, on top of that, is, in fact, a mono-national state (Han people make up 92% of the population). By 2030, Africa is projected to have 40-50 million internal migrants aged 18-24. It is clear that this will not add stability.

A calmer situation with internal migration in China and India. In China, internal migration - from village to city - according to traditional estimates (they seem to me significantly overestimated), is about 400-500 million people, and it plays a large economic role.

But intra-Indian migration does not play such a role, internal migrants do not adapt well to life in the new conditions. This is primarily due to powerful caste and regional identities, which in India are much stronger than national identity. India, according to a number of experts, is not so much a whole as a sum of states.

One of the most striking reflections of this is the preservation and development of regional cinema, which, unlike Bollywood, is unknown in the West. This is Collywood (Chennai / Madras) - after the studios in Kodambakkam; Tollywood (from Tollingung) in Kolkata; movies in Bengali, Telugu.

In the coming decades, it is projected that 300 million Indians will leave the countryside for the cities, and this will be a migration shock. Considering that India is already one of the world leaders in receiving labor migrants from abroad, the shock can be very strong. India is mainly visited by people from neighboring countries, where the situation is even worse than in India - from Bangladesh and Nepal (now the population of Bangladesh is 160 million, more than 200 million are predicted in 2030; India's other neighbor, Nepal, has 29 million)., for 2030 - about 50 million).

The Indian diaspora outside India - 25 million (in 2010 they gave the country 50 billion dollars), and if we take people from all of former British India, then the diaspora - 50 million Indian diaspora (Pravasi Bharatiya Divas), dated to the date of the return of M. K. Gandhi to his homeland from South Africa in 1915

As a distraction, I will note that, despite the poverty, India is covered by a mobile telephone network. If in 2003 there were 56 million subscribers, then in 2010 - 742 million, and now it is close to 900 million. This is due to the cheapness of fees: 110 rupees (2 euros per month), there is also a very cheap tariff - 73 rupees …

China welcomes the migration of its citizens to strategically important areas in Africa. Here, the Chinese diaspora is 500 thousand, and half of them live in South Africa. Of the 700,000 young Chinese graduates who left the country between 1978 and 2003, 160,000 returned to China.

Today analysts are increasingly comparing the constituent parts of Kindafrika in terms of education. First of all, it should be noted that today 40% of today's global youth aged 20–25 are getting higher education.

On the eve of World War II, this figure was only 5%. I am not talking about the quality of this education, it is declining all over the world. Quantitatively, the number of educated people is growing - just according to Mikhail Ivanovich Nozhkin: "educated people simply won."

In "Kindafrika" with a minimum of minimum - literacy - the situation is as follows: in China there are literate 90%, in India - 68%, in Africa - 65% - a colossal contrast with the situation in 1950; us based on films with Raj Kapoor ("The Tramp", "Mr. 420", etc.).

In the Indian state of Kerala, in general, 90% of the literate is the result of the fact that the communists were often in power in the state. At the moment, India and Africa in literacy are approximately at the level where the PRC was in 1980, i.e. there is a 30-year lag.

Nowadays there is a lot of talk about the "knowledge economy". For the most part, this is the same ideological fake as "post-industrial society" or "sustainable development". Just look at how some indicators of the "knowledge economy" are derived: the number of hours that students spend in educational institutions is multiplied by the number of people.

Thus, in the United States, from 1980 to 2010, the number of years of study increased from 1.7 billion to 2.4 billion, and in China - from 2.7 billion to 7.5 billion. 2050 may reach 10 billion, and Africa, according to formal indicators, will become one of the leaders of the “knowledge economy”. It is clear that all this is fiction - the same as, for example, replacing the term "underdeveloped countries" with "developing". But the question is: developing how - progressively or regressively?

In the ranking of the world's leading universities, “Kinda African” are represented minimally. Chinese universities - Peking, Hong Kong and Qinhua - are ranked 154th, 174th and 184th respectively in the list of 500 leading universities in the world; in this half-thousand there are also 3 Indian and 3 South African (by the way, more than half of all African students study in South Africa and Nigeria).

In the first hundred, 59 universities are American, 32 are European (half of them are British), 5 are Japanese (in particular, the University of Tokyo, which is ranked 20th).

Of course, the level of Indian and African universities is lower than that of leading Western universities, but it should be remembered that university rankings are not so much a reflection of an objective picture, but rather a weapon of the West's psychohistorical war. The Chinese, unlike, for example, the Russian Federation, do not accept these ratings - and they are right.

The real level of Anglo-American universities, their teachers and students is not so high - I testify as a person who has lectured at far from the worst universities in the USA and Great Britain and has the opportunity to compare them with universities in the Russian Federation, China, India and Japan (also far from the worst).

In Kindafrika, China is the leader in education, as well as in the economy. In doing so, however, there is one thing to keep in mind.

Chinese economic reforms of the 1980s and the Chinese breakthrough of the late XX - early XXI century. (mainly with British, Dutch and to a lesser extent Swiss money) was in many ways a project of a certain part of the Western elite. The creation in East Asia of an industrial zone based on cheap super-exploited labor was aimed at saturating the markets of Western Europe and the USA with cheap products.

Unlike the Soviet "economic miracle" of the 1950s, the modernization of the PRC from the very beginning was outwardly oriented and organically built into the plans of the Protestant elites in Western Europe and the world capitalist economy, by no means being an alternative development option to it.