Ukraine. Was there a war tomorrow?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Events in Ukraine are developing so rapidly that one gets the feeling that one has only to imagine the worst, and it will certainly come true. After a week of active, but absolutely unsuccessful protests by residents of the South-East and countermeasures taken by the rebels, it is possible to draw certain conclusions and outline a new Ukrainian reality.

New order

Over the past week, the rebels have taken control of all security agencies on the mainland. Thus, the SBU was actively involved in the work and began to jail the leaders of the civil protest, and new commanders were assigned to the demoralized police officers and the re-certified Berkut and reinforced with revolutionary political instructors. Hundreds of Maidan self-defense forces were deployed to the regions, and now the Nazis, together with the police, are engaged in suppressing protests in the South-East.

Attempts by the officers who retained their honor to refuse to carry out criminal orders end with the junta replacing them with loyal persons. The oligarchs, on the other hand, strengthened their control over the regions entrusted to them thanks to mercenaries from their security structures, and Kiev attracted a landing of fighters from private military companies.

The situation with the Armed Forces is no better: there, in addition to the theft of portable anti-aircraft missile systems and the introduction of the institution of revolutionary commissars, there is a massive replacement of officers in the South-East by people loyal to the junta. The next step is the transfer of army arsenals and military equipment parks to the Nazis from the Right Sector in order to pacify the South-East.

When protests lose their meaning

In the current situation, the civil actions of the South-East have exhausted themselves and can no longer create anything other than a television picture. Now the process of letting off steam from the Russian-speaking population and draining the protest is just going on. In some regions, this is being done by those who previously positioned themselves as staunch supporters of Eurasian integration.

The protest movement on the mainland has no real successes, and it cannot be: the rebels have seriously strengthened their positions not only in law enforcement agencies, attracted foreign political strategists and specialists in information warfare, but also launched an unprecedented scale of anti-Russian propaganda and hysteria, taking control practically all media.

The disaffected in Ukraine will be suppressed by the Nazis from the right sector and mercenaries. The Southeast cannot oppose them with anything, since it has neither a regional leader, nor organizational structures, nor the tools to repulse the Nazis. Simply put, the protest movement will be crushed, the leaders are at best locked up, and the disaffected will be intimidated.

No one will hear your cry

It is difficult to predict whether the coming economic collapse and the dismantling of the welfare system will fully awaken the masses. Undoubtedly, some of the country's inhabitants will wake up and begin to look at the world sanely, but this will take at least several weeks, or even months, before the masses take to the streets. However, the propagandists will do their job, and through the Ukrainian media, Russia, which refused to finance the junta, will be appointed guilty of everything.

Thus, almost all TV channels and the overwhelming majority of online media outlets, without exception, are engaged only in creating disinformation and shaping the image of Russia as an enemy. It is worth giving them their due: this process is proceeding extremely successfully and the most common "arguments" among the inhabitants of Ukraine are the speech that the treasury was plundered by Yanukovych, Putin is wrong, and Russia is the aggressor. It is not possible to prove the opposite to an ordinary citizen of Ukraine. In addition, the process of the rapid ousting of Russian TV channels from the Ukrainian information space begins.

Thus, the junta took control of the country's information space and began to intensively brainwash the citizens of Ukraine.

Course for aggravation and war

Kiev and the West deliberately chose a course of aggravating relations with Russia. Thus, the governors of the Russian regions are threatened and demanded from them to join Ukraine, the sites of the Russian media are hacked by hackers of the “Internet Hundreds”.

But most importantly, in the south of the Kherson region, in the immediate vicinity of the Perekop isthmus, troops are concentrated, armored vehicles are being brought in and a Ukrainian air defense system is being deployed. Obviously, the junta's intentions are not to protect the mainland from the Crimeans' “encroachments” on neighboring regions, but to establish “constitutional” order on the territory of the peninsula and disrupt the referendum.

I believe that one of the scenarios for saving the Kiev rebels from bankruptcy may be a war, since for simply maintaining hysteria in the media, armored vehicles and air defense systems look like unnecessary and extremely costly elements of an information war.

However, in order to use force, the junta needs confidence that Moscow will not dare to fully respond and send military units to the territory of Ukraine. I believe that Kiev does not have such confidence now, and no one can give guarantees of non-interference from the Russian Federation. However, it is not known which of the "Western partners" promised the Kiev radicals. Therefore, the risk of a punitive operation against the Crimeans is very high, as well as the likelihood that such actions will end with the appearance of polite people in the Lviv region.

Subtotals

It is worth giving up the illusion that the collective South-East will be able to give birth to a single regional leader and force the local elites to vote for a referendum on federalization. In the context of the unfolding terror, the protest movement will simply die.

I believe that the RF leadership has little time to make decisions with regard to Ukraine, and it will have to act extremely tough. However, Vladimir Putin has the right to use armed forces, sanctions do not frighten anyone in the Russian Federation, and the level of support of the Russian authorities among the population is extremely high.

And no references to the norms of international, let alone Ukrainian national law, should stop Russia: the “revolution”, having destroyed Ukraine, nullified all Russian obligations to the international community and the Kiev rebels.

Otherwise, within a few years the Ukrainian Wild Field will give birth to such monsters that it will take even more forces and resources to restore order, and the flame of terror and color revolutions will have to be extinguished already on the territory of the Union republics.

Ivan Lisan, www.odnako.org

Important addition:

In his speech, the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the ARC, Sergei Aksyonov, called the Kiev government illegitimate, urged Odessans not to recognize it, create self-defense units following the example of Crimea and seek an all-Ukrainian referendum. He also promised Odessa help and support of the Crimeans.