Table of contents:
- 1. Mass computerization
- 2. The disappearance of some professions
- 3. Changing the concept of education
- 4. Growing problems with the environment
- 1. Robots in every home
- 2. Successful space exploration
- 3. World Peace
Video: The fulfilled predictions of science fiction writer Isaac Asimov for 2019
2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55
35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the Canadian edition of The Star, impressed by Orwell's dystopia "1984", asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write a forecast article for 2019.
The year was not chosen by chance. Orwell's masterpiece came out of print in 1949 - 35 years earlier. The journalists found it curious to find out how our world will change in another 35 years. Azimov was also interested and gave his version of the development of events.
Now we have finally reached the point where the prophecies of the famous writer can be verified.
What came true
From the point of view of Azimov, humanity on the way to 2019 should have been disturbed by three most important thoughts:
- The likelihood of a nuclear war.
- Massive computerization.
- The use of outer space.
As for the first point, the years were before perestroika, when relations between the two superpowers - the USSR and the USA - reached a boiling point. The world was on the verge of disaster, but the futurist still chose to remain an optimist.
Asimov also predicted computerization surprisingly accurately, although in the early 1980s few believed in the massive development of this area. Moreover, the science fiction writer made a number of additional conclusions from his prophecy, which are also coming true today. If you touch on this topic in more detail, you get the following.
1. Mass computerization
Asimov firmly called it inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, society will reach the level where it simply cannot exist without computers, which will be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.
This prophecy has definitely come true: today there is a PC in almost every home, even in third world countries.
2. The disappearance of some professions
This fact, from the point of view of Azimov, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But at the same time, not everyone will please.
Isaac Asimov
It's not even that computers will take jobs away from people. The need for a whole range of professions will simply disappear: any clerical work, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. Computers and robots controlled by them will begin to execute them, and they will do it more quickly and successfully.
The prediction also came true: by 2019, a number of professions, for example, telephone operators and stenographers, have already died out, and dozens of other specialties are expected to disappear from the market by 2020. Moreover, as Azimov suggested, this is due exactly to the automation and development of computer control systems.
3. Changing the concept of education
The advent of computers and the associated changes in the labor market, according to the writer, will require fundamental changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If before industrialization a person could live well without knowing literacy, then in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to handle computers and navigate the new high-tech world.
The futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. By 2019, they may well be replaced by computers, and children will receive education at home - not according to the standard school curriculum, but at an individual pace and in accordance with their own interests.
In general, this prediction can also be considered, if not come true, then actively coming true. The principles of upbringing and education of children have changed dramatically, with more and more parents preferring the so-called distance learning in online schools.
4. Growing problems with the environment
The first half of this forecast, obviously, came true: environmental problems in the world are really growing. But with the second, unfortunately, there was a bobble: modern scientists have not been able to offer a way out of this crisis.
What did not come true (but, perhaps, will come true)
There are other moments in which human society progresses more slowly than the astute science fiction writer expected. Here they are.
1. Robots in every home
As the author of the laws of robotics, Azimov was sure on the eve of 1984: “A mobile computerized object, which is also a robot, has already penetrated into industry. In the next generation, it will penetrate into every home."
Until that happened. Unless, of course, we consider robotic vacuum cleaners, smart coffee makers and kettles with Internet access as full-fledged "mobile computerized objects".
2. Successful space exploration
By 2019, according to Azimov's forecasts, humanity will return to the Moon with renewed vigor and even create a colossal inhabited station there, whose employees will extract minerals and produce building materials from them, necessary for the construction of other objects in space. Also, the science fiction writer assumed the launch of global industries into orbit (this would reduce environmental pollution on the planet) and the creation of a huge space power plant to collect solar energy and transfer it to Earth.
But something went wrong.
3. World Peace
The need to solve social, educational, environmental, space issues, on which the existence of our civilization directly depends, should force humanity to unite.
Isaac Asimov
So Azimov believed, predicting even the creation of a semblance of a world government. Alas, in this matter, the legendary science fiction writer again turned out to be too optimistic.
Recommended:
Arthur Clarke: a science fiction writer who predicted the future
British scientist, inventor, futurist, explorer and science fiction writer Arthur Clarke is known for "predictions" of the future, for which he received the nickname "Prophet of the Space Age". He shared a vision of the future that amazed his contemporaries, as well as ideas about technologies that humanity will rely on. But how accurate were Clark's prophetic visions?
Leo Tolstoy's secrets of success. Writer about education, science and death
In the literary community, jokes about the length of the works of Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy are among the most popular. However, the writer not only successfully composed long sentences, but also knew how to express thoughts vividly in a short form. Theory & Practice cites Tolstoy's best diaries about art, education and death
Ivan Efremov at gunpoint of the KGB. The fulfilled prophecies of the forgotten genius of science fiction
Most of the inhabitants of our country know Ivan Efremov as a science fiction writer, but this is only the tip of the iceberg. Many secrets and rumors are associated with his name, which are still not disclosed. Here are just a few of them
The era of digital wonders. Which predictions of science fiction writers have come true and which have not?
Once upon a time "in 2000" sounded like "in the distant future." By this turn of eras, science fiction writers, filmmakers and even serious scientists promised us all kinds of technological wonders. Some of their predictions came true. Others turned out to be a dead-end branch of technological evolution, while others did not go beyond the forecasts at all
The great wisdom of science fiction writer Ivan Efremov in quotes ahead of the century
I would like to share the selected quotes of the famous writer and scientist I. Efremov, which are filled with a deep philosophy of life and open a new horizon of understanding. I learned about Ivan Efremov from the book by A. Novykh “Sensei”. To be honest, I was never fond of science fiction, but Efremov's works made a strong impression on me. I strongly advise you to familiarize yourself with at least one of his works, as with the complementary books by A. Novykh