The era of digital wonders. Which predictions of science fiction writers have come true and which have not?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Once upon a time "in 2000" sounded like "in the distant future." By this turn of eras, science fiction writers, filmmakers and even serious scientists promised us all kinds of technological wonders. Some of their predictions came true. Others turned out to be a dead-end branch of technological evolution, while others did not go beyond the forecasts at all.

Several factors influenced the predictability of forecasts. Firstly, the absence of absolute contraindications on the part of the laws of physics - for example, it is useless to consider cabins for teleportation and time travel from a scientific point of view, since they contradict many fundamental laws at once. Secondly, the implementation of the forecast is tied to human needs: the idea of hunting seagulls from under the water is technically feasible, but this "entertainment of the future" was in demand even less than underwater hockey. And, finally, economics played a role: planes with sleeping compartments in the form of prototypes were built already in the 1930s, but airbuses in the end turned out to be more profitable.

Come true

Videophone

They do not exist as a separate device, however, in fact, any smartphone, tablet or desktop computer can easily cope with the transmission of both video and sound to the interlocutors. And, of course, the rotary dial that we can see in the pictures of the 1950s and 1960s is a thing of the past. Why it worked. Adding a picture to the sound turned out to be in demand: it is psychologically easier for people to communicate with visible interlocutors, and in some cases the picture allows you to convey that information that is extremely poorly expressed in words. For example, when you need to show a new dress, a blueprint for a drawing, or a room that you intend to rent out.

Key technologies:microprocessors, digital signal processing, fiber optic communication lines.

Flat TV screens

Neither subtract nor add: they exist and need no introduction. A full-wall screen, of course, is expensive, but no more than color TVs in the late 1960s (in the USSR, these cost up to a thousand rubles at first with an average salary of about 120).

Why did it work:a large picture has obvious advantages, it is not for nothing that cinemas immediately made a full-wall screen.

Key technologies:liquid crystal displays.

Solar energy

Instead of boilers heated by the sun's rays, we have photovoltaic converters, but in general, the idea of using the energy of the sun has taken root. Since 1990, the world has seen an exponential growth in solar power plants, and in 2017 they provided 1.8% of all electricity generated in the world. In Germany, this share is noticeably higher (6, 7%), and Chinese solar power plants in the next two years can bypass all Russian coal-fired CHPs combined in terms of their generated energy.

Why did it work:The sun is the primary source of all energy on Earth, with the exception of nuclear and geothermal. It makes sense to use it directly, especially when there is an easy way to convert light into electricity.

Key technologies: silicon, and in the future organic and perovskite photovoltaic converters.

Didn't work or remained as prototypes

Monorail

They roamed from one forecast to another, but did not become a mass mode of transport. Moscow plans to dismantle the monorail at all, and the Wuppertal monorail built in 1901 is still one of the three largest monorail systems in the world.

Why it didn't work:there are practically no advantages in comparison with the metro, tram or city train. In addition, the choice of traditional technology is very wide, and monorail systems are a piece goods.

Could it work: probably not.

Assistant robots

The universal mechanical servant appears already on the pages of popular magazines of the century before last. In an era when living servants were found in all wealthy homes, this idea suggested itself. However, today we have only robots that can only vacuum the floor or wash the glass. And even then only in not too difficult cases.

Why it didn't work: The task, trivial for humans, “to wipe dust from all surfaces in the room” turned out to be unbearable for artificial intelligence, which must, for example, understand which objects can be shifted to the side and which should not be touched. Choosing the right rags, bypassing cats, balancing on steps and not breaking dishes are also extremely difficult tasks. In addition, unlike microelectronics, servos and precision mechanics have not drastically dropped in price.

Could it work: with the advent of artificial intelligence and the improvement of mechanical engineering, it is possible.

Automatic translation

Yes, formally it exists, and it is even actively used. But you can just open the first note that comes across on the NASA website and try to translate it into Russian: “The interstellar object Oumuamua puzzled scientists in October 2017, when it climbed past the Earth at an unusually high speed. This mysterious visitor is the first object ever seen in our solar system known to have originated elsewhere. At most, this is suitable in order to approximately understand the topic of the note. This is still very far from the simultaneous translation of a conversation on an arbitrary topic in an arbitrary pair of languages.

Why it didn't work: the language is very complex, and its understanding is tied to the context (we understand that an asteroid cannot “climb” - only “fly”).

Could it work: rather, yes, but the question is how. Some linguists believe that machine learning and neural networks will suffice, while skeptics talk about the need to create a full-fledged artificial intelligence.

A helicopter in every family or flying cars

Helicopters are produced, of course, in large quantities, but even a small single-engine helicopter consumes fuel for several thousand rubles per hour. Add about a million rubles for piloting training, maintenance costs, the price of the helicopter itself, take into account the ban on flights over Moscow within the Moscow Ring Road.

Why it didn't work: it is possible to lift an aircraft into the air only with a very significant expenditure of energy, and it is impossible to reduce this indicator in principle. In addition, the consequences of pilot error are much more serious than the consequences of driver error.

Could it work: if there is a sufficiently perfect autopilot and cheap electricity.

Colonies on the Moon and Mars

They were promised by everyone, including NASA and the Soviet Union. But a manned expedition did not even land on Mars, and people last visited the Moon with Apollo 17 in 1972.

Why it didn't work: a cheap and massive means of delivering cargo to orbit never appeared. Delivery of a kilogram of cargo to Mars will cost the price of a kilogram of gold or even more - building not a city there, but a permanent base is simply incredibly expensive.

Could it work: if we can reduce the cost of spacewalk. In recent years, SpaceX has made significant steps in this direction, and others are trying to catch up with it.

Self-propelled sidewalks

An idea popular in science fiction from the late 19th to the middle of the 20th century - from Waels' "The Form of the Coming" to Heinlein's "The Roads Must Roll" and Asimov's "Steel Caves". However, in real 2018, we have a maximum of travelators in shopping centers and airports.

Self-propelled sidewalk with a German postcard. It was supposed to create a system of several belts moving at different speeds. Source: CC0

Why it didn't work: in order to comfortably and safely enter the sidewalk, its speed should not exceed the speed of a pedestrian. Riding at pedestrian speed is usually not very interesting.

Could it work: unlikely. The problem is not in the absence of any technologies, but in the idea itself.

Nuclear energy is everywhere

Reactors in cars and locomotives. Nuclear aircraft. Some even offered heating and lighting with radium, as well as radioactive drinking water and cosmetics.

Why it didn't work: after a series of major accidents, including (but not limited to) Chernobyl, humanity began to fear everything radioactive. What to do with nuclear waste is also not very clear.

Could it work: nuclear engineers argue that inexpensive uranium-238 and thorium can be used, and nuclear waste can be "burned" in special reactors to relatively low-level substances. However, putting reactors in trucks is still a bad idea, because road accidents will clearly happen in the future.

May become reality soon

Passenger electric multicopter

Almost no publication about the prophecies of the past is complete without a Jules Verne helicopter. However, if you re-read "Robur the Conqueror", it becomes clear that his "Albatross" is not a helicopter of the XX century. It has a lot of propellers and runs on electricity, which means it's a multicopter. Considering that Norway has recently decided to gradually replace conventional aviation with electric by 2040, this prediction can be safely written in the category "most likely to come true in the next decades." It is unlikely to come to every house, but it will be able to squeeze the helicopters on kerosene.

Why should it work: in theory, electric vehicles can be made cleaner than gasoline vehicles.

Key technologies: accumulators and control electronics.

Unmanned vehicles

They were even described in "Dunno in the Solar City". Today they are tested on the roads and even mass produced, but with limited functionality; likely to become a ubiquitous reality in the next 10-15 years.

Why should it work: the person behind the wheel is the main cause of an accident today. The robot is always in great shape, does not sleep, and even more so, is deprived of the nasty habit of drinking alcohol before the trip. He can also navigate by radar and thermal imager, and his reaction time is many times less than the reaction time of a person.