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Video: Northern Sea Route: Russia's wealth prospect
2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55
Back in 2005, the famous economist V. Inozemtsev in his speech predicted the collapse of the development of the Northern Sea Route. According to him, the prices are too high for this direction to be really competitive. However, several years later, cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route is increasing unusually quickly, despite the solid prices for the service. Kramola offers to look at the prospects of this transport direction.
Know the value of time
The Northern Sea Route is the shortest route from Europe to East Asia. For example, from Murmansk to Yokohama, you can swim along it in 20 days, and the path is 10, 7 thousand km. If we compare the data with the Suez Canal, then the distance along it of 24 thousand km can be covered in 32 days.
This feature allowed the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to become one of the most large-scale developing projects in Russia over the past 10 years. For comparison, in 2017 the volume of cargo transportation has already exceeded 10 thousand tons. These are record figures in the entire history of the NSR. If we compare the indicators with the same 2005, then they amounted to about 5 million tons. According to experts' forecasts, by 2030 the volume of cargo transportation will amount to 100 and more million tons per year. According to less optimistic forecasts, growth will stop at around 72 million tons, despite the high price.
Ice melts, ships sail
As V. Inozemtsev rightly noted in his speech, there are more important things than the delivery time of the cargo for the Russian economy. Still, the cost of transportation comes to the fore today. If we compare the price of transportation along the Northern Sea Route, it is obvious that it is not competitive. A certain benefit can be seen when comparing the delivery time of the cargo. Saving 10-15 days has certain benefits. But even with such an advantage, transportation is complicated by bad weather, which disables navigation. Ships in northern latitudes are capable of sailing on their own for no more than 4 months. a year. The rest of the time you have to use the help of icebreakers. Which, as you might guess, is not cheap.
But soon the situation may change dramatically. According to forecasters, by the second half of the 21st century, the Arctic Ocean, due to global warming, may be completely cleared of glaciers. A number of recognized experts believe in such a scenario, in particular, V. Krupchatnikov. In his opinion, if the climate continues to change so rapidly, then the melting of glaciers will be fully completed by the previously indicated period of time.
More restrained forecasts indicate that the ice will melt, but not so rapidly, but "after a few years." The ocean without ice, according to such forecasts, will be available for ships not 4, but 8 months a year. The rest of the time, you still cannot do without icebreakers. But the designated period will be enough for a greater development of the Northern Sea Route in the near future.
Ports for everyone
Climate change on the planet will also contribute to the change in the modernization of the Russian economy. Despite the fact that much attention is now being paid to the development of the Northern Sea Route, the authorities do not consider it as a worthwhile alternative to the southern routes. At the moment, he is assigned the role of a certain driver. Its main task now is to optimize the internal structure and build an icebreaker fleet. Investments go to meet the needs of the Ministry of Defense. Now it has focused on the development of airfields and military bases in the region, as well as mining corporations. These corporations are involved in the production and liquefaction of natural gas. On this basis, whole settlements and cities are being created in the region. A striking example is the village of Sabeta. If we compare the growth rates, then in 2009 there were about 19 people, and now about 20 thousand. The authorities are doing everything for the convenience of life and work of the village, even an international airport has been created.
But the increased traffic along the Northern Sea Route will force the authorities to reconsider some of the priorities in their work. In order to compensate for the traffic, the authorities will have to deal with port modifications. The total capacity of the northern terminals by 2028 is projected to exceed 117 million tons. This should be enough for the basic development of the NSR. However, this volume is not enough to turn the Northern Sea Route into a competitive project. Today there are 71 seaports located along the NSR. Of these, 66 have a cargo turnover of less than 100 thousand tons per year. Or they just don't work. The authorities need to understand that in order to stabilize the operation of the Northern Sea Route, the activation of these points is necessary.
You need to look for sources of funding for the project. In particular, at first, the state and related businesses will have to invest. The amount of funds received will depend on the amount of cargo transported. Help can also be expected from foreign partners. In particular, from China, which is interested in developing this area. The use of Beijing as one of the ports of the NSR is being actively discussed, and China also has its share in Yamal LNG.
Japan is also ready to provide assistance. The country's representative on Arctic issues K. Shiraishi noted that Tokyo can redirect up to 40% of cargo along the Northern Sea Route to the old world. This is already enough for the rapid development of the project and Russia.
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