Russia is an energy superpower

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

The term "energy superpower" has a traditional definition - this category includes states that have two characteristics

First, there are large proven reserves of at least one energy resource on their territory, that is, oil, natural gas, coal, uranium. The second sign of an energy superpower is that such a state is the largest exporter of at least one of the listed energy resources. It sounds, it would seem, quite logical, but this is only at first glance, since this definition lacks the most important feature - an energy superpower cannot be a country that does not have stable state sovereignty

The first two signs in the recent past were, for example, Libya and Iraq, but we can clearly see how this situation ended for them. If the availability of energy resources is not supported by military potential, then the country will inevitably lose the status of an "energy superpower", the only question is the time during which this will happen. The highest stage in the development of military potential is the presence of a nuclear weapons complex and modern means of delivering nuclear weapons to any part of the Earth. Five nuclear states are known - Russia, the United States, Britain, France and China, but three states from this short list are not exporters, but importers of energy resources. Further reasoning leads to the only logically correct conclusion - on our planet there is exactly one already established energy superpower and there is a second one that makes every conceivable effort to get on the same level with it. We are talking about Russia and the United States. Since the start of the shale revolution, the United States has managed to become exporters of oil and gas; they are traditionally among the top ten coal exporters. But the export of hydrocarbons is not "clean" - the United States remains large importers of oil, and in the not so distant 2018 we witnessed that due to weather anomalies and the quirks of its own legislation, the States were forced to import liquefied natural gas, and even produced in Russia. In addition, in 2019 alone, the volume of US coal exports collapsed by 20% and there are no encouraging signs of a recovery in these volumes in the coming years.

Vladimir Putin and the concept of "Russia is an energy superpower"

The concept of Russia as an energy superpower was first discussed at the turn of 2005 and 2006, and many analysts representing our non-traditional Western partners attribute the formulation of this concept to Vladimir Putin, citing the fact that it was he who expressed this idea during his speech at the Council meeting Security of Russia December 22, 2005. However, in the future, the Russian president repeatedly stressed that nothing of the kind was said in his speech. It is not so difficult to find out who is telling the truth and who is engaged in falsification - the Security Council carefully keeps the minutes of all its open meetings, including the said opening speech of the President of Russia.

Vladimir Putin

Here is a quote from that primary source.

“Energy is the most important driving force behind economic progress today. It has always been this way and will remain so for a long time; in essence, stable energy supply is one of the conditions for international stability in general. At the same time, our country has natural competitive advantages and natural and technological opportunities for taking more significant positions in the world energy market. The well-being of Russia, both in the present and in the future, directly depends on the place we occupy in the global energy context.

Claiming leadership in the global energy sector is an ambitious task. And to solve it, it is not enough just to increase the volume of production and export of energy resources. Russia should become the initiator and “trendsetter” in energy innovations, in new technologies, in the search for modern forms of resource and subsistence conservation. I am convinced that our country, its fuel and energy complex and domestic science are ready to accept such a challenge."

As you can see, in this speech the words “Russia must become an energy superpower” are really absent, it was only about leadership in the world energy sector. So why, one wonders, were Western analysts and our domestic Russophobes so alarmed? You can answer briefly - cumulatively. Even then, in 2005, no one disputed the known facts: Russia possesses the largest natural gas reserves on the planet, ranks second in the world in terms of proven coal reserves, second in oil production, and third in proven uranium reserves. With nuclear weapons, Russia is also in perfect order, because after the USSR reached global parity with the United States, our country managed not to lose this potential and ensure that nuclear weapons that ended up on the territory of post-Soviet states after 1991 were returned to Russia … But all of the above was already fait accompli, they, in general, did not cause reasons for alarm. Most of all, our loyal and sincere enemies were alarmed by one single phrase of Putin:

"Russia should become an initiator and 'trendsetter' in energy innovations and new technologies."

Just at this time, at the end of 2005, Russia clearly demonstrated that it does not intend to continue following the canons and recipes of the liberal doctrine of economics. The unrestrained fragmentation of the fuel and energy complex (FEC) changed the course towards a sharp increase in state control over it. On May 16, 2005, the Meshchansky District Court sentenced Mikhail Khodorkovsky, control over YUKOS passed to Rosneft, in the same 2005 Gazprom acquired a controlling stake in Sibneft (now we know this company as Gazprom Neft), in early 2006 Gazprom became the main shareholder of the Sakhalin-2 project, while the events that led to this result took place in 2005. The state was returning oil and gas under its wing; in his speech at the Security Council meeting, Putin repeatedly emphasized the role and importance of nuclear energy. Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the fact that attentive Western observers "between the lines" of the speech of the President of Russia clearly saw the "ghost of the USSR" - the desire of Russia to start innovative development of energy technologies at the state level. What is the development of technology by concentrating the efforts of the entire state, the USSR showed with the development of atomic and rocket projects, with the development of other projects of the military-industrial complex - we were catching up and overtaking the West, regardless of any difficulties. Even a hidden allusion to the possibility of Russia repeating the same "maneuver" in the fuel and energy complex caused not even anxiety, but a poorly concealed fear in the United States and Europe. Nuclear weapons, huge reserves of energy resources and a simultaneous breakthrough in the development of the latest technologies in the fuel and energy complex with the restoration of state control over it - such a Russia in the West definitely did not suit anyone.

Formula Vladislav Surkov

However, it was not Western apprehension that became the main problem that prevented the implementation of the plan outlined by Putin on Energy Day 2005. The Russian government, especially its economic wing, turned out to be frankly not ready for the proposed development of events. Putin's idea was openly "emasculated" by Vladislav Surkov, who then held the posts of deputy head of the presidential administration and presidential aide.

Vladislav Surkov

Here is a quote from his speech to the audience of the Center for Party Studies and Personnel Training of United Russia on March 9, 2006:

“The fuel and energy complex should remain predominantly Russian, we should strive to participate in the global energy market as part of new multinational corporations, the economic future is not in the confrontation of great nations, but in their cooperation. The task is not to become a very large raw material appendage, but to make the most of our capabilities, develop them and bring them to a new quality level. To begin with, we must learn how to extract oil and gas in more modern ways. It is no secret that we really do not know how to do this, and that we do not know how to produce oil on the shelf ourselves, for example, and that, in my opinion, we do not have a single refinery that meets modern requirements for the quality of oil products. We must get access to technologies by exporting gas, oil and oil products. If we get access - in cooperation, of course, with Western countries, in good cooperation with them - to new technologies, even if maybe not the very last day, then we ourselves, developing our education system (we, in general, not stupid people in general), we will be able to reach those very high technologies."

It was these "postulates of Surkov" that grateful listeners in the person of senior officials and our oil and gas companies tried to implement over the next eight years: "In cooperation, of course, with Western countries, in good cooperation with them." Only in 2014, after the Ukrainian events and the start of discriminatory measures against Russia by Europe and the United States, the Russian government was able to comprehend what “good cooperation” is in the understanding of Western countries and what results we have achieved, counting on it. Just as Russia did not have its own technologies for the production of hydrocarbons on the shelf and at sea - so they do not exist, just as we did not have our own technologies for large-scale gas liquefaction - so they do not exist, just as our power engineering enterprises did not know how to produce high-power gas turbines, so this still remains an unresolved problem. This list can be continued and continued, since only in 2014 a new word appeared in the Russian language - "import substitution".

Rosatom phenomenon

However, in 2006 there were also those who were not present at Surkov's lecture to members of United Russia - there were no representatives of our nuclear industry. Rosatom not only remained in state ownership, after its creation, the corporation returned control of Atommash and ZiO-Podolsk, bought out Petrozavodskmash, built vertically integrated holding divisions under its control in the extraction of uranium ore, in its processing, in fabrication of nuclear fuel, returned to operation design bureaus and research institutes, restored the training system to the maximum, not only at the expense of its flagship universities, but also by creating a whole network of training and production centers in all its closed cities. If Russia as a country ranks third in the world in terms of uranium reserves, then Rosatom is the first company in the world in this category, since it managed to get ownership of shares in mining projects in Kazakhstan, bought deposits in Tanzania and in the United States. We will not go into other details, “large strokes” are quite enough - Rosatom occupies a two-thirds niche in the world reactor building market, nuclear icebreakers under construction are “armed” with the latest generation of reactor plants, in 2019 they will enter the energy system of the northernmost city in the world, Pevek, the world's first floating nuclear power plant "Akademik Lomonosov" produced electricity. Designers are currently completing the development of projects for the onshore placement of reactors installed on new icebreakers, which will give Rosatom a significant head start in the sector of low-power nuclear power plants - competitors have such projects only at the preliminary stage of development. This is not “according to Surkov,” this is “according to Putin”: “Russia must become an initiator and a“trendsetter”in energy innovations and new technologies.”

Vladimir Putin and Sergey Kirienko, General Director of the State Atomic Energy Corporation Rosatom (2005-2016)

In short, the result is as follows. The state-owned company Rosatom, having implemented what Putin had proposed, became the leader of the world atomic project. State-owned companies Gazprom and Rosneft, implementing the proposed by Surkov, continue to fight for a place in the sun, receiving sensitive blows to all their plans as a result of surges in world prices for hydrocarbons. In the coal industry, Russia does not have a single company with state participation - and due to the unsuccessful price environment in 2019, we saw a decrease in production volumes, bankruptcies of several mines and open pits, wage delays and a decrease in previously planned investment volumes. Russia, once a pioneer in the development of wind energy, the potential of which in our Arctic zone is called “endless” by experts around the world, is taking only the first steps to restore the national scientific and technological school, the Ministry of Education is only groping for the possibility of creating a system for training relevant specialists. Such a situation cannot be called optimistic, but one can recall the wonderful Soviet film "Aibolit-66" and the immortal words of Barmaley: "It's even good that we feel so bad!" The sanctions imposed on Russia helped government officials, deputies of the Duma and the Federation Council to realize with painful clarity what "good cooperation with Western countries" is in the understanding of these Western countries themselves, how unpromising are the prospects for further adherence to liberal postulates in the fuel and energy complex.

Coordination of efforts and cooperation of fuel and energy companies is the basis for the implementation of national projects

In December 2005, Vladimir Putin suggested that his government do without his own mistakes, but the circumstances are such that Russia has to learn from them. As you, dear readers, understand, this phrase was composed solely for the sake of compliance with the requirements for respectful treatment of the leaders of the country for the media, nothing more. In our opinion, the time has come to fill the concept of "Russia as an energy superpower" with a new, correct meaning - taking into account all the lessons that we have been receiving since 2014.

Our armed forces guarantee us state sovereignty, reserves of energy resources in the depths of Russia and the experience gained by Rosatom - this is what makes it possible to implement this concept at a modern level. Gazprom, Gazprom Neft and Rosneft have no right to compete with each other in the struggle for hydrocarbon deposits; the development of new technologies should be carried out in close cooperation of state-owned companies with each other. We already have living examples of what is possible: Rosneft is building the country's largest shipbuilding complex Zvezda near Vladivostok, on which tankers will be built for both Gazprom and NOVATEK, on which it is planned to lay the newest Leader-class nuclear icebreaker for Atomflot - an icebreaker, which will be built in order to ensure the implementation of projects of our oil and gas companies in the Arctic.

New meanings of the concept of an energy superpower

Russia has two national super-projects - the development of the Far East and the Arctic Zone, but their implementation is impossible without innovative energy projects, without a qualitatively new level of management of the fuel and energy complex. No investors, even those with the most benevolent attitude towards Russia, will come to the region, where, before building industrial enterprises, they will have to solve the problems of designing and building thermal power plants. In the 21st century, it is simply a shame to continue to provide the vital activity of ports and settlements in the Arctic at the expense of northern delivery - this was permissible in the first decades of the Soviet Union. Let us recall, for example, what the delivery of diesel fuel and coal to remote villages and uluses of Yakutia looks like. Nuclear icebreakers bring caravans of cargo ships to Yakutsk, then river boats, which have completely exhausted their resource 20 years ago, deliver cargo to villages located on the tributaries of the Lena. And then - everything, further roads in the summer do not exist at all. Power engineers are waiting for frost, snow and polar night - these conditions make it possible to build winter roads, along which, in incredibly difficult conditions, every year a line of trucks drag through the blizzard and snowfalls. An annual feat on a schedule, the annual surprise of the government that people are leaving and leaving the Arctic.

In the energy sector of the Arctic, there have never been, and still are not, “effective private owners” - there are no opportunities to recoup investments in a matter of years. The energy sector of the Arctic is the state-owned company RusHydro, which has already built 19 combined solar power plants under these conditions. Solar panels are combined with diesel generators: there is sunlight - we use it, there is no sunlight - the diesel will turn on in automatic mode so that consumers are as comfortable as possible. Each kilowatt * hour, "caught" by solar panels - an opportunity to bring one less diesel fuel barrel. In the winter season of 2018/2019, a combined wind farm was working confidently in Tiksi - at -40 degrees, under fierce arctic winds. Withstood! The project of this miracle of engineering was developed in Russia, but the equipment was manufactured … in Japan - well, there are no companies in Russia that could pull out an order of such complexity, no!

In the summer of 2020, the Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant will be connected to the Pevek heating networks, which will allow the local Chaunskaya CHPP, which was commissioned in 1944, to retire. In the summer of 2020, a new CHPP in Sovetskaya Gavan is to start operating in order to replace the Mayskaya GRES, which in some unknown way continues to provide light and heat, although it was built in 1938.

FNPP "Akademik Lomonosov" on September 14, 2019 docked in the port of Pevek

Russia must be an energy superpower in order for our country to be able to master itself, to complete projects that are already several hundred years old. Our ancestors mastered the Far East and the Arctic under tsars and emperors, during the Time of Troubles, all conceivable wars and revolutions, under feudalism, capitalism, socialism. You can treat Kolchak in different ways as the supreme ruler of Russia, but also those who are “for” and those who are “against” should strain and remember that in 1910, Captain II Rank Alexander Kolchak, who was previously a member of the Northern Sea Route Commission, during navigation in 1910, he commanded the Vaigach icebreaker and took part in an expedition led by Boris Vilkitsky, who in 1914-1915 was able to navigate through the NSR for the first time in 1914-1915. We are able to argue for years about the role that Peter Wrangel played in the history of Russia, but we have no reason to argue about the contribution of Ferdinand Wrangel to the study of the Arctic Ocean - the very one whose name is the island between the East Siberian and Chukchi seas and an island in the archipelago Alexandra, Alaska. Returning to the age-old projects of the development of the Far East and the Arctic at a new stage of technological development - isn't it the way to end the dispute between the “red” and “white”?.. We can think about this, but at the same time it is indisputable that this return is impossible without the implementation of new and advanced energy projects.

Energy supplies as part of comprehensive proposals

Russia must be an energy superpower in order to strengthen its position on world markets, to expand the sphere of our technological influence. This cannot be achieved by remaining only a supplier of oil and gas - in this case, we will be forced to endlessly compete with the United States, since they will not give up their attempt to become the No. 2 energy superpower, using methods that are far from the concept of market ones. It will be very difficult for us to compete with them on the energy markets of Europe and Southeast Asia - their lead is very great due to the fact that the dollar remains the main trading currency of the world, due to the fact that no one even thinks to dissolve the NATO bloc. The states put pressure on us on the LNG market, price wars have already begun - this is a tradition for any manufacturer of the same product. But only 42 states import LNG, and there are three times more of them on the planet, not counting the very dwarf ones.

Rosatom wins the reactor building market because its proposals to potential customers are complete and complete: design of nuclear power units of generation "3+" that meet all post-Fukushima safety requirements, their construction and provision with all equipment, supply of nuclear fuel and reprocessing of irradiated fuel, preparation professional staff in Russian universities and educational and industrial complexes, which are included in the package for the construction of nuclear power plants, development and implementation of schemes for the output of electricity produced at nuclear power plants into the energy system of the customer country.

Construction of NPP "Rooppur" (Bangladesh)

This means that our gas companies must also learn to develop and implement a comprehensive proposal - from a coastal regasification terminal to the construction of power plants, not only land-based, but also floating ones - the world is full of island states that simply do not have free territories. We will also have to invent ways in which developing countries can settle accounts with our companies. This is also possible: TATNEFT is working on signing a contract for the supply of oil products to one of the African countries, and this contract will also include the third participant - Alrosa. There is no money? Pay with diamonds! So far, this is only the first example, but the method has been found - in the depths of many developing countries there are extremely demanded minerals, it remains only to combine interests. Yes, please note that Tatneft and Alrosa are by no means owned by “effective private owners,” but by the state - another proof that theories of fans of liberal economics in real life are extremely rare in practice.

Do customer countries need natural gas not as an energy resource, but as a raw material for the chemical industry? This means that Russian companies are obliged to be able to offer such enterprises, but working not on other people's technologies, but on Russian patents. Exactly the same applies to the oil industry - not only "black gold", but also projects of oil refineries and petrochemical plants from foundation to roof, from the switch at the entrance to the Klaus oxidation plants. Coal is falling in price and all export plans of our coal companies are on the verge of failure? The reason is the same - coal miners are not able to make a comprehensive proposal, they cannot offer customers not only an energy resource, but also the construction of coal-fired power plants designed for supercritical and ultra-supercritical working steam temperatures, equipped with ash and slag processing technologies, modern filtration systems and carbon dioxide utilization. … The USSR developed all these technologies on its own and was the world leader in this sector, but everything was abandoned after the onset of the “era of big gas,” which means that efforts must be made to revive and develop this scientific and technological school. Just don't expect that this work will be undertaken by private owners - it is possible only with government leadership and government coordination. Alloys of metals that can withstand enormous temperatures, for example, for pipelines of liquid metal nuclear reactors - this is the Central Research Institute of Structural Materials "Prometheus", a branch of the Kurchatov Institute in St. Petersburg, coal miners will be looking for it until the beginning of the next century, and to build cooperation without sensitive guidance from the state - another two hundred years.

Electricity is the final product of energy processing

Russia as an energy superpower is a country that exports not only energy resources, but also the final product of their processing, that is, electricity. Export of electricity from Russia is also a monopoly, a monopoly of the state-owned company Inter RAO. So far, the volume of this export cannot be called particularly large - a little in the Far East to China, a little to Finland through a connection with its energy system near Vyborg, and some more crumbs to the Baltic countries through the BRELL energy ring (Belarus - Russia - Estonia - Latvia - Lithuania). Few. Not enough, because we have not yet been able to agree with China on increasing the volume of supplies due to disputes over prices and because we did not have and do not have additional energy capacity along the Amur. The projects of hydroelectric power plants on the tributaries of the Amur are gathering dust on the far shelves, the Erkovetskoye coal deposit passes from hand to hand, where at the turn of the tenth years the Medvedev government tried to develop and implement a project of a large thermal power station.

But the development of feasibility studies for two energy bridges at once is already approaching the final stage: Russia - Azerbaijan - Iran and Russia - Georgia - Armenia - Iran. Are we going to build them on our own technologies? The answer to this question determines the prospect of expanding cooperation with Iran - the country occupying the second line in the table of ranks in terms of natural gas reserves and the state that the United States, in the updated version of the National Security Strategy, has designated as its strategic adversary along with Russia and China. We are not talking about a return to the days of "international friendship", but such a verdict from the United States is the basis for a situational convergence of positions in the energy sector. Iran has been under Western sanctions with short interruptions for three decades now, and these sanctions are more severe than those applied to Russia. However, Iran's offshore drilling platforms are already operating - their own, import-substituted to the last rivet, the chemical industry is developing confidently - and also based on its own technologies. Iran has been resisting pressure from the West for decades, adopting one amazing method for this - in 2021, this country will end the 6th five-year economic development plan. A capitalist state in which the state sector in the economy barely reaches 50% - and a five-year plan! At the very least, it is worth taking a closer look at such an experience, studying and analyzing it - it will suddenly come in handy.

A comprehensive development plan or a market element?

Each of the listed components of the concept of Russia as an energy superpower requires a powerful strengthening of power engineering, an increase in steel production, the expansion of existing capacities and the construction of new ones. But the technical equipment of these factories cannot continue to be based on imported technologies - otherwise, there will be a risk of falling under the next batch of especially sophisticated sanctions. Russia as an energy superpower is a "long game", but we were not left with any other choice. Continue to "push your elbows" in the markets of developed countries? A fascinating activity, only competitors strive with their elbows not only in the side, but also in the face, and even with their feet in the kidneys - the assortment is great: personal and sectoral sanctions, blocking cash payments, bribery of politicians and heads of large companies, etc. other. Market competition in its pure form exists only in the Economics book and on planets where fairies with wings graze herds of unicorns in emerald glades, and on the third planet from the Sun, everything is much more brutal. This means that we need the same "asymmetric response" that we have learned to give in the military-industrial complex - to create new markets, giving the chances of the Third World countries to become developing countries again.

Russia as the "homeland of GOELRO" should be able to provide assistance in the design and creation of interconnected energy systems - the only basis for the creation of energy-intensive industries. Russia should have the potential to give customer countries a chance for development not only through the supply of energy resources and technologies for their storage, transportation and processing, but also - without the slightest hesitation! - through training in our education system, in our scientific, design and engineering schools. The Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, the St. Petersburg and Tomsk Polytechnic Universities, which train students from those countries where Rosatom is building nuclear power plants, makes a contribution to expanding Russia's sphere of influence hardly less than MGIMO, which prepares our diplomats for their homelands, and turns MEPhI into ours. technological envoys are their bright minds - after all, others do not go to "nuclear" universities.

The implementation of the concept "Russia as an energy superpower" is not something "narrowly specialized", it is a complex project that requires the development of science and technology in a variety of industries. A potential customer in Africa, Asia or South America hesitates whether to agree to sign a contract for the supply of LNG and for the construction of a power plant? So, to the envy of Kio, you need to be able to "pull out of the sleeve", for example, the project of a seawater desalination plant. What, it has nothing to do with energy? And to hell with it, but this addition to the complex offer may be in great demand in countries located on the sea coast and in which there are no significant sources of fresh water. Does the customer like the project of the power plant, which does not yet give environmental impact, but does not have anchor consumers? This means that our geologists should help to discover mineral deposits, and our energy company should be able to immediately roll out projects for mining and processing plants and plants for deep processing of these minerals.

The double challenge facing Russia

The implementation of this concept is a completely different level of public administration, it is a re-mastering of the art of developing and implementing comprehensive development plans. The education system, restoration and development of the Soviet geological school, power engineering, non-ferrous metallurgy and shipbuilding, cooperation of the capabilities and competencies of all state-owned companies in the fuel and energy complex, restoration and development of instrument making and machine tool building, programming, comprehensive digitalization - there are many components that must develop in a coordinated manner, strengthening and empowering each other. There are no trifles here, there is "every bast" in a line, including the restoration of industry journalism, restructuring of the work of the federal media. This is a huge challenge for Russia, which cannot but accept another challenge - the creation of an economy of the fourth economic order, the development of industries that previously simply did not exist in our penates. Additive technologies, biotechnology, hydrogen energy, composite materials, high-temperature superconductor technologies - science does not stand still, we must learn not only to be in the right place at the right time, but also to be pioneers, leaders in new and new industries.

But Russia needs not only those who will go into a new scientific and technological revolution - in order to master itself, to realize the concept of an energy superpower, we again need steelworkers and miners, chemists-technologists, sailors who will not be afraid of the challenges of the Northern Sea Route., railway workers and stevedores, designers and engineers, all these specialties should again become prestigious, in demand by our youth. Double challenge: reindustrialization based on its own new technologies and the simultaneous implementation of the fourth industrial and technological revolution. The challenge is difficult, difficult, very, very difficult. But there is no other way out - from the very moment the United States updated its National Security Strategy, the Rubicon has been crossed, the second "cold war" has already begun quite openly in the world and is underway. Either we accept this double challenge, or "good cooperation with Western countries" will end up turning Russia not into an energy superpower, but into a raw material appendage of these Western countries.

With all the richness of choice, there is no other alternative, let’s falter - the “cold” war will be turned by “good employees” into a hybrid one, it will blaze with a color revolution. Either Russia perceives itself as a unique state, stretching in 12 time zones on the shores of three oceans, or it resigns itself to the prospect of becoming a "huge Libya." The choice must be realized. The choice to be made. A challenge to have the courage and willingness to accept.