The wonderful world that we have lost. Part 6

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Start A small preface to the continuation

The previous fifth part of this work was published by me two and a half years ago, in April 2015. After that, I tried several times to write a sequel, but the work did not go on. Either new facts or works of other researchers appeared that needed to be comprehended and fit into the big picture, then new interesting topics for articles appeared, and sometimes a lot of basic work simply piled up and physically there was not enough time and energy for something else.

On the other hand, the conclusions that I eventually came to, collecting and analyzing information on this topic for more than 25 years, even seemed to me too fantastic and incredible. So incredible that for a while I hesitated to share my findings with anyone else. But as I found more and more new facts that confirmed the previously made assumptions and conclusions, I began to discuss this with my closest friends who are also involved in this topic. To my surprise, most of those with whom I discussed my version of the development of events not only accepted it, but also began to supplement and develop almost immediately, sharing with me their own conclusions, observations and the facts they collected.

Ultimately, I decided during the first Ural conference of thinking people, which was held in Chelyabinsk from October 21 to 23, to make a report on the topic "The wonderful world that we have lost" in an expanded version, including the information that did not exist yet in the parts of the article already published at that time. As I expected, this part of the report was received very controversially. Perhaps because it touched upon such topics and questions that many of the conference participants had not even thought about before. At the same time, an express survey of the audience conducted by Artyom Voitenkov immediately after the report showed that about one third of those present generally agree with the information and conclusions that I voiced.

But, since two-thirds of the audience turned out to be among those who doubt or disagree at all, at this stage we agreed with Artyom that on his Cognitive TV channel this report will be released in a shortened version. That is, it will contain exactly that part of the information that was presented in the five previous parts of the work "The Wonderful World We Lost." At the same time, at my request, Artyom will also make the full version of the report (or the part that will not be included in his version), which we will publish on our channel.

And since the information has already entered the public space, I decided to finally finish writing the end of my work, which I offer below for your attention. At the same time, I doubted for some time where to include this block of information, whether in the work "Another History of the Earth", because there this information is also necessary to understand the overall picture, or still finish the old work. In the end, I settled on the last option, since this material fits in here much better, and in The Other History of the Earth, I'll just make a link to this article later.

Comparative analysis of biogenic and technogenic principles of matter control

The level of development of a particular civilization is determined by what methods of control and manipulation of energy and matter it possesses. If we consider our modern civilization, which is a pronounced technogenic civilization, then from the point of view of manipulating matter, we are still trying to reach the level when the transformation of matter will be performed not at the macrolevel, but at the level of individual atoms and molecules. This is precisely the main goal of the development of the so-called "nanotechnology". From the point of view of energy management and use, as I will show below, we are still at a fairly primitive level, both in terms of energy efficiency and in terms of receiving, storing and transferring energy.

At the same time, relatively recently, a much more developed biogenic civilization existed on Earth, which created on the planet the most complex biosphere and a huge number of living organisms, including human bodies. If we look at living organisms and living cells of which they are composed, then from an engineering point of view, each living cell is, in fact, the most complex nanofactory, which, according to the program embedded in the DNA, written at the atomic level, synthesizes directly from the atoms and molecules of matter and compounds necessary both for a specific organism and for the entire biosphere as a whole. At the same time, a living cell is a self-regulating and self-reproducing automaton, which performs most of its functions independently on the basis of internal programs. But, at the same time, there are mechanisms for coordinating and synchronizing the functioning of cells, which allow multicellular colonies to act in concert as a single living organism.

From the point of view of the used methods of manipulating matter, our modern civilization has not yet even come close to this level. Despite the fact that we have already learned to interfere with the work of existing cells, modifying their properties and behavior by changing the code of their DNA (genetically modified organisms), we still do not have a complete understanding of how all this actually works. … We are not able to create a living cell with predetermined properties from scratch, nor to predict all the possible long-term consequences of the changes that we make in the DNA of already existing organisms. Moreover, we cannot predict either the long-term consequences for this particular organism with a modified DNA code, or the consequences for the biosphere as a whole as a single multi-connected system in which such a modified organism will ultimately exist. All we can do so far is to get some kind of short-term benefit from the changes we have made.

If we look at the level of our ability to receive, transform and use energy, then our lag is much stronger. In terms of energy efficiency, the biogenic civilization is two to three orders of magnitude superior to our modern one. The amount of biomass that needs to be processed to obtain 50 liters of biofuel (on average one tank of a car) is enough to feed one person for a year. At the same time, those 600 km that a car will travel on this fuel, a person will walk on foot in one month (at the rate of 20 km per day).

In other words, if we calculate the ratio of the amount of energy that a living organism receives with food to the volume of real work that this organism performs, including the functions of self-regulation and self-healing in case of damage, which currently does not exist in technogenic systems, then the efficiency of biogenic systems will be much higher. Especially when you consider that not all the substance that the body receives from food is used precisely for energy. A fairly large part of food is used by the body as a building material from which the tissues of this organism are formed.

The difference in the handling of matter and energy between biogenic and technogenic civilizations also lies in the fact that in a biogenic civilization the loss of energy at all stages is much less, and the biological tissues themselves, from which living organisms are built, enter as an energy storage device. At the same time, when utilizing dead organisms and organic materials and tissues that have already become unnecessary, the destruction of complex biological molecules, for the synthesis of which energy was previously expended, never occurs completely before the primary chemical elements. That is, a fairly large part of organic compounds, such as amino acids, is launched into the cycle of matter in the biosphere without their complete destruction. Due to this, the irretrievable energy losses, which must be compensated for by a constant influx of energy from the outside, are very insignificant.

In the technogenic model, energy consumption occurs at almost all stages of the manipulation of matter. Energy must be consumed when obtaining primary materials, then when converting the resulting materials into products, as well as during the subsequent disposal of this product in order to destroy products and materials that are no longer needed. This is especially pronounced in working with metals. To obtain metals from ore, it must be heated to very high temperatures and melted. Further, at each stage of processing or production, we must either reheat the metal to high temperatures in order to ensure its ductility or fluidity, or spend a lot of energy on cutting and other processing. When a metal product becomes unnecessary, then for disposal and subsequent reuse, in cases where this is at all possible, the metal must again be heated to the melting point. At the same time, there is practically no accumulation of energy in the metal itself, since most of the energy spent on heating or processing is ultimately simply dissipated into the surrounding space in the form of heat.

In general, the biogenic system is built in such a way that, all other things being equal, the total volume of the biosphere will be determined by the radiation flux (light and heat) that it receives from the radiation source (in our case, at a given time from the Sun). The greater this radiation flux, the greater the limiting size of the biosphere.

We can easily fix this confirmation in the world around us. In the Arctic Circle, where the amount of solar energy is relatively small, the volume of the biosphere is very small.

And in the equatorial region, where the energy flow is maximum, the volume of the biosphere, in the form of multi-tiered equatorial jungles, will also be maximum.

But the most important thing in the case of a biogenic system is that as long as you have a flow of energy, it will constantly strive to maintain its maximum volume possible for a given amount of energy. It goes without saying that for the normal formation of the biosphere, in addition to radiation, water and minerals are also needed, which are necessary to ensure the flow of biological reactions, as well as for the construction of tissues of living organisms. But in general, if we have a constant flux of radiation, then the formed biological system is able to exist for an indefinitely long time.

Now let's consider the technogenic model from this point of view. One of the key technological levels for a technogenic civilization is metallurgy, that is, the ability to obtain and process metals in their pure form. Interestingly, in the natural environment, metals in their pure form are practically not found or are very rare (nuggets of gold and other metals). And in biogenic systems in their pure form, metals are not used at all, only in the form of compounds. And the main reason for this is that manipulating metals in their pure form is very expensive from an energetic point of view. Pure metals and their alloys have a regular crystal structure, which largely determines their properties, including high strength.

To manipulate metal atoms, it will be necessary to constantly spend a lot of energy to destroy this crystal lattice. Therefore, in biological systems, metals are found only in the form of compounds, mainly salts, less often in the form of oxides. For the same reason, biological systems need water, which is not just a “universal solvent”. The property of water to dissolve various substances, including salts, turning them into ions, allows you to divide matter into primary building elements with minimal energy consumption, as well as transport them in the form of a solution to the desired place in the body with minimal energy consumption and then collect them from them inside the cells complex biological compounds.

If we turn to the manipulation of metals in their pure form, then we will have to constantly spend a huge amount of energy to break bonds in the crystal lattice. In the beginning, we will have to heat the ore to a high enough temperature at which the ore will melt and the crystal lattice of the minerals that form this ore will collapse. Then, in one way or another, we separate the atoms in the melt into the metal we need and other "slags".

But after we finally separated the atoms of the metal we need from everything else, we ultimately have to cool it down again, since it is impossible to use it in such a heated state.

Further, in the process of manufacturing certain products from this metal, we are forced to either reheat it in order to weaken the bonds between the atoms in the crystal lattice and thereby ensure its plasticity, or to break the bonds between the atoms in this lattice with the help of one or another instrument, again, spending a lot of energy on this, but now mechanical. At the same time, during the mechanical processing of the metal, it will heat up, and after the completion of the processing it will cool down, again uselessly dissipating energy into the surrounding space. And such huge losses of energy in the technogenic environment occur all the time.

Now let's see where our technogenic civilization gets its energy from? Basically, this is the combustion of one or another type of fuel: coal, oil, gas, wood. Even electricity is mainly generated by burning fuel. As of 2014, hydropower occupied only 16.4% in the world, the so-called "renewable" energy sources 6.3%, thus 77.3% of electricity was generated at thermal power plants, including 10.6% nuclear, which, according to in fact, also thermal.

Here we come to a very important point to which special attention should be paid. The active phase of technogenic civilization begins about 200-250 years ago, when the explosive growth of industry begins. And this growth is directly related to the burning of fossil fuels, as well as oil and natural gas. Now let's see how much of this fuel we have left.

As of 2016, the volume of proven oil reserves is just over 1,700 trillion. barrels, with a daily consumption of about 93 million barrels. Thus, the proven reserves at the current level of consumption will be enough for mankind only for 50 years. But this is on condition that there will be no economic growth and an increase in consumption.

For gas for 2016, similar data give a reserve of 1.2 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, which at the current level of consumption will be enough for 52.5 years. That is, for about the same time and provided there is no growth in consumption.

One important note must be added to this data. From time to time there are articles in the press that the oil and gas reserves indicated by the companies may be overestimated, and quite significantly, almost twice. This is due to the fact that the capitalization of oil and gas producing companies directly depends on the oil and gas reserves they control. If this is true, then in reality oil and gas may run out in 25-30 years.

We will return to this topic a little later, but for now let's see how things are with the rest of the energy carriers.

World coal reserves, as of 2014, amount to 891,531 million tons. Of these, more than half, 488,332 million tons, is brown coal, the rest is bituminous coal. The difference between the two types of coal is that for the production of coke used in ferrous metallurgy, it is hard coal that is needed. World consumption of coal in 2014 amounted to 3,882 million tons. Thus, at the current level of coal consumption, its reserves will last for about 230 years. This is already somewhat more than oil and gas reserves, but here it is necessary to take into account the fact that, firstly, coal is not equivalent to oil and gas in terms of the possibility of its use, and secondly, as oil and gas reserves are depleted as at least in the field of electricity generation, coal will first of all begin to replace them, which will automatically lead to a sharp increase in its consumption.

If we look at how things are with fuel reserves in nuclear power, then there are also a number of questions and problems. First, if you believe the statements of Sergei Kiriyenko, who heads the Federal Agency for Nuclear Energy, Russia’s own reserves of natural uranium will be enough for 60 years. It goes without saying that there are still uranium reserves outside of Russia, but nuclear power plants are being built not only by Russia. It goes without saying that there are still new technologies and the ability to use isotopes other than U235 in nuclear power. For example, you can read about this here. But in the end, we still come to the conclusion that the stock of nuclear fuel is actually not that big and, at best, is measured by two hundred years, that is, comparable to the stock of coal. And if we take into account the inevitable increase in nuclear fuel consumption after the depletion of oil and gas reserves, then it is much less.

At the same time, it should be noted that the possibilities of using nuclear power have very significant limitations due to the dangers posed by radiation. In fact, speaking of nuclear power, one should understand precisely the generation of electricity, which can then be used in one way or another in the economy. That is, the scope of application of nuclear fuel is even narrower than that of coal, which is needed in metallurgy.

Thus, the technogenic civilization is very strongly limited in its development and growth by the resources of energy carriers available on the planet. We will burn down the existing hydrocarbon reserve in some 200 years (the beginning of the active use of oil and gas about 150 years ago). Burning coal and nuclear fuel will take only 100-150 years longer. That is, in principle, the conversation cannot go on about thousands of years of active development.

There are various theories of the formation of coal and hydrocarbons in the bowels of the Earth. Some of these theories claim that fossil fuels are of biogenic origin and are the remains of living organisms. Another part of the theory suggests that fossil fuels may be of non-biogenic origin and are the product of inorganic chemical processes in the interior of the Earth. But whichever of these options turned out to be correct, in both cases, the formation of fossil fuels took much longer than it took a technogenic civilization to then burn this fossil fuel. And this is one of the main constraints in the development of technogenic civilizations. Due to the very low energy efficiency and the use of very energy-intensive methods of manipulating matter, they very quickly consume the available energy reserves on the planet, after which their growth and development slow down sharply.

By the way, if we take a close look at the processes that are already taking place on our planet, then the ruling world elite, which now controls the processes taking place on Earth, have already begun preparations for the moment when energy supplies will come to an end.

First, they formulated and methodically put into practice the strategy of the so-called "golden billion", according to which by 2100 there should be from 1.5 to 2 billion people on Earth. And since there are no natural processes in nature that could lead to such a sharp decline in the population from today's 7, 3 billion people to 1.5-2 billion people, this means that these processes will be caused artificially. That is, in the near future, humanity expects genocide, during which only one out of 5 people will survive. Most likely, different methods of population reduction and by different amounts will be used for the population of different countries, but these processes will take place everywhere.

Secondly, the population under various pretexts is imposed on the transition to the use of various energy-saving or substitution technologies, which are often promoted under the slogans of more efficient and profitable, but elementary analysis shows that in the overwhelming majority of cases these technologies turn out to be more expensive and less effective.

The most telling example is with electric vehicles. Today, almost all car companies, including Russian ones, are developing or already producing certain variants of electric vehicles. In some countries, their acquisition is subsidized by the state. At the same time, if we analyze the real consumer qualities of electric vehicles, then, in principle, they cannot compete with cars with conventional internal combustion engines, neither in the range, nor in the cost of the car itself, nor in the convenience of its use, since at the moment the battery charging time often several times longer than the subsequent operation time, especially when it comes to commercial vehicles. To load a driver for a full day of work at 8 o'clock, a transport company needs to have two or three electric vehicles, which this driver will change during one shift while the rest are charging the batteries. Additional problems with the operation of electric vehicles arise both in cold climates and in very hot ones, since additional energy consumption is required for heating or for the operation of the air conditioner, which significantly reduces the cruising range on a single charge. That is, the introduction of electric vehicles began even before the moment when the corresponding technologies were brought to a level where they could be a real competitor to conventional cars.

But if we know that after a while oil and gas, which are the main fuel for cars, will run out, then this is how we should act. It is necessary to start introducing electric vehicles not at the moment when they become more efficient than conventional cars, but already when, in principle, it will be possible to use them to solve certain practical problems. Indeed, it will take a lot of time and resources to create the necessary infrastructure, both in terms of mass production of electric vehicles and in terms of their operation, especially charging. This will take more than one decade, so if you sit and wait for the technologies to be brought to the required level (if at all possible), then we may face a collapse of the economy for the simple reason that a significant part of the transport infrastructure based on cars with internal combustion engines, will simply get up due to lack of fuel. Therefore, it is better to start preparing for this moment in advance. Again, even if the artificially created demand for electric vehicles will still stimulate both developments in this area and investments in the construction of new industries and the necessary infrastructure.