Migrantophile arithmetic

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

The discussion about the required number of migrants for the Russian economy is at the cave level. Discussants cannot even agree on at least the number of migrants already available in Russia (estimates vary from 5 to 20 million - needless to say that a structural analysis of the employment of migrants, etc. with such a spread of numbers is possible only in the format of "fortune-telling on coffee grounds"), and if the position of the opponents of migrants is at least logical ("But you can at least recount them for a start and draw up a more or less plausible analytical report, and only then we will decide what to do with them?"), then the supporters of further migration can not squeeze out of themselves anything except delightful stories about "hardworking Tajiks" and "Russians are all drunk."

Seriously, this is the type of economic analyst in our country. Nobody knows the real needs of the labor market for foreign labor. Moreover, the figures periodically announced by the government (“Create 25 million jobs!” - Putin. Why 25 million? Why 25 million? What 25 million? What are you talking about, Colonel Botox? 2020 "outdated last year (and now they are drawing" Strategy-2030 "- why be modest, right?), Putin can promise anything, strategic planning in the country is absent as a fact) do not correlate well with reality, and of the three forecasts of economic development Russia looks most likely to be conservative (in short, it boils down to "sitting and eating up oil revenues").

Nevertheless, let's imagine the incredible - after a hundred years of absence, the Lord finally returned to Russia, and we finally began a rapid economic development with the need for labor. Not 25 million, but at least 5 million jobs have been created. Where can we get labor for them without bringing in migrants?

"Vedomosti":

“The productivity of personnel in modern Russian stores is significantly lower than in developed countries, analysts from Sberbank CIB point out. According to their data, the Russian store employs three times as many employees as in a store in the US of the same area. Exactly the same conclusion the analysts of the McKinsey consulting company came a few years ago: in 2009 in Russia, according to their data, there are an average of 71 employees per 1000 square meters of retail space, and in the USA - 26.

At the end of 2011, the American Walmart employed 2.2 million people - they served 10,130 stores with an area of 96.4 square meters, follows from the company's annual report. It turns out that in this network there is 43.8 sq. M of retail space per employee. In Russian chains, the ratio of employees to retail space is different: in Magnit, for example, at the end of October 2012, 165,000 people worked, the sales area of the company's stores at that time was 2.32 million square meters. It turns out that one employee (including office staff and warehouse workers and drivers) had 14.09 square meters of area. The Dixy group has similar indicators - at the end of 2012 it had 14.3 square meters of retail space per employee (514,934 square meters and 36,000 people).

At the same time, 11% of those employed in trade in modern stores serve 44% of retail turnover, another 89% of "trade workers" sit in stalls, stalls and kiosks, giving out only 56% of the turnover - that is, all these southern gentlemen who occupied our retail trade, work with negative efficiency. Simply bringing our trade infrastructure to modern standards will leave hundreds of thousands of Russians without jobs, and the introduction of sweatshop American management practices in modern supermarket chains will free up hundreds of thousands of workers for our economy without any migrants. The magic of effective management! Optimization magic! It goes without saying that if we introduce visas and increase the cost of labor for migrants, then our trade networks will be forced to modernize, adjusting themselves to the standards of the civilized world. In the meantime, it is possible to hire Tajik loaders by platoon for a penny, no one has a desire to optimize work processes.

From the same series "Reducing personnel in the service sector, which does not produce anything":

“This year, TATNEFT will open two automatic filling stations, another 10 ordinary filling stations will be re-equipped,” Rim Rafikov, head of the filling station department of the oil products sales department of the company, told Vedomosti.

It is three times cheaper to supply an automatic gas station than a standard one: 15 million rubles, and a regular gas station - from 20 million to 60 million rubles, says the owner of a private network of gas stations. The operating costs of the gas station, which does not need to be connected to the water supply and sewerage system, are three times lower, says Rafikov.

According to Rafikov, first of all, low-profit filling stations will be switched to automatic mode.

For the filling station, the only saving item is the lack of personnel, says Roman Fomentsov, economist at the Tatnefteprodukt filling station management: “No people means no water consumption, less electricity consumption”. According to him, an average of five people work at a regular gas station with an average salary of 25,000 rubles."

In total, there are now about 70,000 filling stations in Russia - thus, another 350,000 people are engaged in "give-and-bring" where it is possible to do with automatic equipment. I'm not even talking about several million "security guards", healthy men in their prime, all day sitting in annoying idleness.

Total: the modernization of the service sector, bringing it to the standards of the civilized world, will free up hundreds of thousands, if not millions of workers. Supporters of the mass import of migrants to Russia must prove that in the near future at least several million new jobs will appear in our country, which will not be possible to close due to optimization in other areas of the economy. But since the conservative development scenario (the only one more or less realistic) does not imply the massive opening of thousands of factories (rather, on the contrary), then you can take your thesis about "there is no one to work" and shove yourself in the place from where you stuck it out, and turn there until you have at least some reasonable forecast for the labor shortage in Russia.

With love for supporters not backed up by any data on labor migration, Russian nationalist Ivan Statistical-Digital.