The world after the coronavirus pandemic. Changes in the life of different countries

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Like the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the coronavirus pandemic has rocked the world, and we are only now beginning to realize its far-reaching consequences. One thing is for sure: disease destroys lives, disrupts markets, and demonstrates government competence (or lack thereof). This will lead to permanent changes in political and economic power, although these changes will become clear only after some time.

To understand how and why the ground is slipping from under our feet during the crisis, Foreign Policy asked 12 leading world thinkers from different countries to share their predictions about the world order that will form after the pandemic.

A world less open, prosperous and free

Stephen Walt is Professor of International Relations at Harvard University

The pandemic will strengthen state power and strengthen nationalism. States of all types will take extraordinary measures to overcome the crisis, and many will be reluctant to relinquish their new powers once the crisis is over.

COVID-19 will also accelerate the movement of power and influence from west to east. South Korea and Singapore have responded well to the outbreak, and China has responded after making a number of mistakes early on. Europe and America reacted slowly and ill-considered by comparison, further tarnishing the much-vaunted Western "brand."

What will not change is the basically conflicting nature of world politics. Previous epidemics did not end great power rivalry or herald a new era of global cooperation. This will not happen after COVID-19. We will witness a further retreat from hyperglobalization as citizens hope to be protected by national governments and states and companies seek to address future vulnerabilities.

In short, COVID-19 will create a world that is less open, prosperous and free. It could have been different, but the combination of a deadly virus, poor planning and incompetent leadership has put humanity on a new and very alarming path.

The end of globalization as we know it

Robin Niblett is the director of Chatham House

The coronavirus pandemic could be the straw that breaks the back of the camel of economic globalization. The growing economic and military power of China has already led both leading parties in the United States to firmly decide to exclude the Chinese from American high technology and intellectual property, and to try to achieve the same from their allies. There is mounting public and political pressure to meet carbon targets. This could lead to many companies ditching their ultra-long supply chains. COVID-19 is forcing states, companies and societies to strengthen their coping capacity in the face of prolonged self-isolation.

In such a situation, the world is unlikely to return to the idea of mutually beneficial globalization, which became a defining feature of the early 21st century. Lacking incentives to defend the common achievements of global economic integration, the architecture of global economic governance that emerged in the 20th century is rapidly atrophying. Political leaders will need colossal self-discipline to maintain international cooperation and not slide into the swamp of geopolitical rivalry.

If leaders prove their ability to overcome the COVID-19 crisis to citizens, it will give them some political capital. But those who fail to prove it will find it very difficult to resist the temptation to blame others for their failure.

China-centered globalization

Kishore Mahbubani is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, author of Has China Won? Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy

The COVID-19 pandemic will not fundamentally change the direction of global economic development. It will only accelerate those changes that have already begun. It is about moving away from US-centered globalization and moving towards China-centered globalization.

Why will this trend continue? The US population has lost faith in globalization and international trade. Free trade agreements are harmful with and without President Trump. And China, unlike America, has not lost faith. Why? There are deep historical reasons for this. The country's leaders are now well aware that the century of China's humiliation from 1842 to 1949 was the result of its own arrogance and futile attempts to isolate itself from the outside world. And the last decades of rapid economic growth are the result of international cooperation. The Chinese people have also developed and solidified cultural self-confidence. The Chinese believe they can compete everywhere and in everything.

Therefore (as I write about this in my new book Has China Won?), The United States has little choice. If America's primary goal is to maintain global domination, then it will have to continue this antagonistic geopolitical rivalry with China in the political and economic fields. But if the goal of the United States is to improve the well-being of the American people, whose living conditions are deteriorating, then they must cooperate with the PRC. Common sense is that collaboration is the best choice. But due to the hostile attitude of the United States towards China (we are talking mainly about politicians), common sense in this case is unlikely to prevail.

Democracies will get out of their shell

G. John Ikenberry is a professor of politics and international relations at Princeton University and is the author of After Victory and Liberal Leviathan

In the short term, this crisis will strengthen all camps involved in the Western grand strategy debate. Nationalists and anti-globalists, militant opponents of China, and even liberal internationalists will all find new evidence of the relevance of their views. And given the emerging economic damage and social collapse, we will surely witness a growing movement towards nationalism, great power rivalry, strategic disunity and the like.

But as in the 1930s and 1940s, a counter current may gradually emerge, a kind of sober and stubborn internationalism, similar to that which Franklin Roosevelt and other statesmen began to formulate and propagate before and during the war. The collapse of the world economy in the 1930s showed how interconnected modern international society is, and how it is susceptible to what Franklin Roosevelt called a chain reaction. The United States at that time was less threatened by other great powers and more by the deep forces of modernity and their two-faced character (think of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde). Roosevelt and other internationalists envisioned a post-war order that would rebuild an open system, enriching it with new forms of protection and new potential for interdependence. The United States simply could not hide behind its borders. They had to act in an open post-war order, but this required building a global infrastructure and a mechanism for multilateral cooperation.

Therefore, the US and other Western democracies can go through the same sequence of reactions, driven by a powerful sense of vulnerability. The reaction may be nationalistic at first, but over time democracies will emerge from their shells to find a new kind of pragmatic and protectionist internationalism.

Less profits, but more stability

Shannon C. O'Neill is a Senior Fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead)

COVID-19 is undermining the foundations of global production. Companies will now rethink their strategy and reduce the multistage and multinational supply chains that dominate manufacturing today.

Global supply chains have already come under fire for economic criticism due to rising labor costs in China, Trump's trade war and new advances in robotics, automation and 3D printing, as well as political criticism for real and perceived job losses. especially in mature economies. COVID-19 has severed many of these ties. Plants and factories were closed in areas affected by the epidemic, and other manufacturers, as well as hospitals, pharmacies, supermarkets and retail outlets, lost their supplies and products.

But there is another side to the pandemic. Now there will be more and more companies who want to know in detail where the deliveries come from and decide to increase the safety factor even at the expense of efficiency. Governments will also intervene, forcing strategic industries to develop contingency plans and create reserves. The profitability of enterprises will decline, but the stability of supply should increase.

This pandemic may benefit

Shivshankar Menon is a Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution (India) and former National Security Advisor to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh

It is too early to judge the consequences, but three things are already clear. First, the coronavirus pandemic will change our policies, both internally and externally. Societies, even libertarian ones, turn to the power of the state. The success of states in overcoming the pandemic and its economic consequences (or their failures) will affect security issues and polarization within societies. One way or another, state power is returning. Experience shows that dictators and populists are no better at coping with the epidemic. Those countries that began to react from the very beginning and are operating very successfully (South Korea, Taiwan) are democracies, and they are not ruled by populists or authoritarian leaders.

But the end of the interconnected world is still a long way off. The pandemic itself has become a testament to our interdependence.

But in all states, the process of turning inward has already begun, the search for autonomy and independence, attempts to independently determine their own destiny. The world in the future will be poorer, meaner and smaller.

But at last there were signs of hope and common sense. India has taken the initiative to convene a videoconference of leaders from all South Asian countries to develop a region-wide response to the threat of a pandemic. If COVID-19 shakes us hard enough and makes us understand the benefits of multilateral cooperation on the important global issues we face, it will be beneficial.

American government will need a new strategy

Joseph Nye is Professor Emeritus at Harvard University and author of Is Morality Important? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump

In 2017, President Donald Trump announced a new national security strategy that emphasizes great power rivalry. COVID-19 has demonstrated the flaws of such a strategy. Even if the United States prevails as a great power, it cannot defend its security by acting alone. Richard Danzig in 2018 formulated this problem as follows: “Technologies of the 21st century are global not only in their extent of distribution, but also in their consequences. Pathogens, artificial intelligence systems, computer viruses and radiation may well become not only their problem, but ours as well. We need to create consistent reporting systems, common controls and controls, common standards and contingency plans, and contracts to mitigate our many common risks.”

When it comes to transnational threats like COVID-19 or climate change, it’s not enough to think about the strength and authority of the United States over other countries. The key to success also lies in knowing the importance of strength with others. Each country prioritizes its own national interests, and the important question here is how broadly or narrowly it defines these interests. COVID-19 shows that we are unable to adapt our strategy to this new world.

The Winners Will Write COVID-19 History

John Allen is president of the Brookings Institution, a retired four-star general in the United States Marine Corps, and former commander of NATO's International Security Assistance Force and US forces in Afghanistan

It has always been this way, and it will be so now. The story will be written by the "winners" of the COVID-19 pandemic. Every country, and now every person, is increasingly feeling the burden and impact of this disease on society. Those countries that persevere and withstand the merits of their unique political and economic systems, as well as their health systems, will lay claim to success at the expense of those with different, more pernicious and destructive results. To some, this will look like a great and irrevocable triumph of democracy, multilateralism and universal health. For some, this will be a demonstration of the "advantages" of decisive authoritarian rule.

Either way, this crisis will completely reshape the structure of international power in a way that we cannot imagine. COVID-19 will stifle economic activity and heighten tensions between nations. In the long term, this pandemic could significantly weaken the productive capacity of the global economy, especially if companies and jobs are closed. The risk of economic turmoil is especially strong in developing countries and in economies where there are large numbers of economically vulnerable workers. The international system, in turn, will be heavily stressed, creating instability and leading to numerous internal and international conflicts.

A dramatic new stage for global capitalism

Laurie Garrett is a former Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations and a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer

The massive shocks to the global financial and economic system are a recognition that global supply chains and distribution networks are highly susceptible to disruption and disruption. Therefore, the coronavirus pandemic will not only cause long-term economic consequences, but also lead to more fundamental changes. Globalization has allowed companies to distribute production around the world and deliver products to markets on time, avoiding the need to store them in warehouses. If inventory was left on the shelves for several days, it was considered a market failure. Deliveries had to be carefully prepared and delivered in a timely, consistent, global manner. But COVID-19 has proven that disease-causing microbes not only infect humans, but poison this entire supply chain on a strict schedule.

Given the scale of financial market losses the world has been facing since February, companies are likely to abandon the just-in-time model as well as global distribution of production after the end of this pandemic. A dramatic new phase for global capitalism will begin as supply chains move closer to home and stockpile to guard against future disruptions. This will negatively affect the profits of companies, but will make the system more resilient and resilient.

New bankrupt countries

Richard Haass is President of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The World: A Brief Introduction, which will be published in May

I don't like the word "permanent", as well as the words "little" and "nothing." But I think that because of the coronavirus, most countries will turn inward for at least a few years, focusing on what is happening within their borders rather than abroad. I foresee more proactive moves towards selective self-sufficiency (and, as a result, weakening of ties) given the vulnerability of supply chains. Stronger resistance to large-scale immigration will arise. Countries will weaken their willingness and willingness to tackle regional and global issues (including climate change), as they will constantly feel the need to devote resources to rebuilding their economies and to address the economic consequences of the crisis.

I expect many countries to find it difficult to recover from the crisis. State power in a number of countries will weaken, and there will be more failed states. The crisis will surely lead to a deterioration in Sino-American relations and to a weakening of European integration. But there will be positive moments, in particular, we should expect some strengthening of the global health system and its management. But overall, a crisis rooted in globalization will weaken the world's readiness and ability to overcome it.

The United States Fails The Leadership Exam

Corey Schaquet is Deputy Director General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies

The United States will no longer be considered a world leader because the government of this country has narrow selfish interests and suffers from ineptitude and incompetence. The global impact of this pandemic could have been seriously mitigated if more information had been provided by international organizations at the earliest stage in the pandemic. This would give countries more time to prepare and mobilize resources in areas where these resources are most needed. Such work could well have been carried out by the United States, thereby showing that, despite their own interests, they are guided not only by them. Washington has failed the leadership test, and it will make the whole world worse.

In every country we see the strength of the human spirit

Nicholas Burns is a professor at the Harvard University School of Government and a former undersecretary of state for political affairs

The COVID-19 pandemic has become the greatest global crisis of our century. Its depth and scale are colossal. A public health crisis threatens every 7.8 billion people on earth. The financial and economic crisis is capable of surpassing the consequences of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Each crisis individually can become a seismic shock that will forever change the international system and the balance of power we know.

The international cooperation established today is regrettably insufficient. If the world's most powerful countries, such as the United States and China, do not abandon their war of words about who is responsible for the crisis and who can lead more effectively, their authority in the world could be seriously affected. If the European Union fails to provide more targeted assistance to its 500 million citizens, national governments will in the future take away many powers from Brussels. It is imperative for the United States that the federal government takes effective measures to contain the crisis.

But in every country there are many examples of how strong the human spirit is. Physicians, nurses, political leaders and ordinary citizens demonstrate resilience, performance and leadership. This gives hope that the people of the world will rally and gain the upper hand in responding to this extraordinary challenge.