The non-obvious side of the Dunning-Kruger effect

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Many people think they understand the essence of the Dunning-Kruger effect by reading its description somewhere on Wikipedia or on any other popular resource.

However, due to their low level of qualifications in the field of sociology, it often turns out that they completely underestimate the depth and variety of forms of its manifestation, and even in themselves. Even reading about this effect, they do not realize how far from understanding its real meaning, experiencing exactly the cognitive distortion that is described in the description they read. There are things in sociology, the comprehension of which requires an understanding of what you are comprehending. I will talk about such "closings" quite often, since they form the basis of our scientific research in the "Social Forestry".

The essence of the Dunning-Kruger effect is seemingly simple: a person, due to his low qualifications in something, is inclined to overestimate his understanding of things in this area and at the same time does not realize his low qualification level. In aphorisms, we can say the same in the words of Bertrand Russell:

One of the unpleasant characteristics of our time is that those who have confidence are stupid, and those who have at least some imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision.

or Confucius:

True knowledge is knowing the limits of your ignorance

F. M. Dostoevsky is also credited with a phrase like this:

The fool who has realized that he is a fool is no longer a fool.

There are many similar phrases. And now, after reading this, our reader already thinks that since he understands the meaning inherent in it, then he is definitely not a fool, that he possesses knowledge and understanding so much that it makes no sense to apply such phrases to him. Surprisingly, the meaning of such phrases is understood by almost everyone … and almost everyone thinks that none of this applies to them. And it just applies to almost everyone.

Our problem from the outside looks something like this: a person read something about the Dunning-Kruger effect, was imbued with the thought, agreed with it, quickly found examples from his life, how he unsuccessfully tried to explain something to a person who does not understand anything in a certain area, but stubbornly tries to argue, and maybe he remembered himself, how he thought that he understood something, until he actually began to understand. This person thinks that he has understood the essence of the phenomenon, has learned to recognize it and make sure that he himself does not become a victim … and immediately becomes another model by which this effect can be studied. Why? Because, due to his low qualifications in the field of sociology, he does not see that the essence of this metacognitive distortion is much more serious than in these superficial descriptions. I will try to explain this here at least briefly using examples with an ever-increasing difficulty of detecting the Dunning-Kruger effect in them. The further you read, the more likely you will not understand anything. Next, there will be paragraphs of text that are almost not connected with each other by the plot, except perhaps for the presence in them of an increasingly complex manifestation of the discussed cognitive distortion.

Let's take the simplest example for a start. Drinking and / or smoking is harmful. Those who do not know about it and do it are striking victims of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Many of them eat their drinks with "Dr. Fox's sauce", which is expressed in the advice of doctors or supposedly scientific research. They are not able to realize that drinking and smoking is harmful due to the same features of the intellect that are the reason for the use of these poisons (who did not understand, one of these features is stupidity). That is, roughly speaking, the situation is as follows: a smart person is smart enough not to drink or smoke of his own choice, and a stupid one is not smart enough to think of not using alcohol and tobacco poison on his own, and not smart enough to get smart and give up data habits, if he had them. To paraphrase FM Dostoevsky, mentioned at the beginning, if a fool realizes that he is a fool, he will stop doing what makes him a fool (in this example, drinking and / or smoking).

Go ahead. Take, say, a novice photographer. After all, it is not for nothing that jokes are circulated on the Internet about such people that, they say, they bought a DSLR and already considers themselves a professional photographer, and if they bought a scalpel, then they are already a professional surgeon. Indeed, it is true, with a good professional technique, photographs will indeed turn out to be a solid "four with a plus", if a person's hands at least grow out of his shoulders, and since most are unable to distinguish art from consumer goods, such photographs will be rated higher than they are. worth it. Not understanding his low qualifications in the field of photography, a person will also not realize that, in essence, his work is a trash heap. Novice designers, programmers, private builders (shabashniki), etc. fall into the same category of examples.

The unfortunate builder, whose ceiling collapsed in a private house, will say that "it was necessary to take thicker reinforcement", but he will not say that he did not calculate the floor slab for a distributed and concentrated load, because he, in principle, did not know about the need for such calculations, and when he is fired, or when the unfortunate customer sends him by the forest, he will not understand why, since, in principle, he is not able to realize the narrowness of his understanding of structural mechanics. Often this situation arises with shabashniki who do not understand why they are not paid for the work that they allegedly earned. It is impossible for them to explain why one or another element in construction they did wrong, because they all have one answer to everything, “we did this all our lives, our grandfathers did this, and nothing”, and they never did not hear. In short, it is impossible to explain to an incompetent person that he is incompetent precisely because of his incompetence.

I have often watched the attempts of the so-called "Fermatists" to present their elegant proof of Fermat's Great Theorem. On the one hand, they are surprised by their insistence to push through a complete mathematical nonsense, and, on the other hand, by their inability to understand the arguments of people who really understand mathematics. It is impossible to explain to the fanatic fermatist what the error in his proof is. He will foaming at the mouth to prove that "the scientific mafia does not specifically want to recognize my proof …", he will accuse mathematicians of conspiring and not letting talented people into science so as not to lose their jobs, etc. There is enough there are many people who are offended by science, to whom, due to their lack of understanding of mathematics, it is impossible to explain that their "proofs" are not proofs of the Theorem, but they have sites where they say that, they are offended, they are not recognized … the same is the case with other scientists, who are now fashionable to be called "altas" or "alternative scientists". Almost all of them do not know logic, but they are not able to understand this, since they do not know logic.

An incompetent boss who does not understand the basics of management is likely to blame his subordinates, as if they are not coping with the task, while he does not understand (and cannot understand due to the narrowness of his ideas) that it was he who set up the management scheme incorrectly. Another situation is also possible: subordinates, due to their incompetence in the field of management, will think that management is to blame for everything, not realizing that they are so incompetent that they have failed the project. In general, just observe people, they often look for excuses for their failures on the side, and they explain their merits precisely by their personal qualities.

Here, by the way, there is also an interesting feature of our society that falls into our topic: many think that the authorities are to blame for everything, on the other hand, they consider themselves competent enough to choose it and generally talk about politics, have kitchen conversations on political topics and talk in the spirit of "this Putinku should have done this: …" These people cannot realize their incompetence in the political sphere, you know why.

On this topic, you can generally give many examples where the described effect works to the fullest: from a fanatical hobby for football to collecting some coins, from a hobby for computer games to attempts to build a career ladder in official science (not everyone will understand this, but someday I'll explain). All people suffering from such nonsense are unable, due to their incompetence in matters of our life, to realize that they are engaged in nonsense. Awareness of the meaning of their life and the need to act in accordance with this meaning for them is an empty sound, because their level of understanding is only enough for nonsense.

There is a popular joke about Marxists. There are no Marxists. A person who understands Marxism will never be a Marxist, and someone who does not understand is not a Marxist. This joke contains the effect we are discussing, but the "Marxists" will not like it very much … they will not understand it … you know why.

Much more difficult is not understanding the consequences of your decisions in life. There is an observation that people do not understand the reasons for what is happening to them. For example, a person lives in poor conditions, constantly has to hang around at work for the sake of some kopecks, constantly something in his life does not go well. He cannot realize what exactly the reason is, but he often finds “simple explanations” for the consequences that he rakes all his life, which in fact are just excuses. For example, a woman can find a simple explanation of why she is still “strong and independent” in the phrase “all men are goats”, while at the same time men can find the same explanation for their failures in another equally well-known phrase. In general, people who love to cry about their fate are all those who are completely under the rule of the Dunning-Kruger effect. They cannot realize the reason for their failures precisely because this reason is the same reason that led them to these failures, that is, the inability to think and make the right decisions. If they really understood their life, there would be no failure, there would be no need to cry. When something goes wrong with a person in life, he is far from always able to find a long, long chain of cause-and-effect relationships, which may last for many years, and find its beginning. Why? Because he, due to the narrowness of his ideas about this world, does not know (and if he is told, he will not believe) that such chains really exist and they really need to be able to untwist them. They cannot realize that every action in this world has consequences. Moreover, quite often the cause from the effect can be defended by many years or even a decade. However, this is already a complex topic; it clearly requires a separate discussion.

Well, the last example for today (but not the last in its complexity) is that there are people who really think they understand the Dunning-Kruger effect. So … they don't understand him! Think for yourself why. As a hint, ask yourself the question: have you read this article, so what? Do you think you understand its meaning?

Despite the above, there is always a way to "break" the vicious circle formed by the Dunning-Kruger effect. That is, on the one hand, a fool cannot become smart precisely because he is a fool, but, on the other hand, people get smarter. There is a way out of any closed sociological circle, that is, you can learn to understand what for your understanding requires the same understanding initially. "Closures" always have an entry point and an exit point. But how can you find them? I will not rush to give ready-made recipes.