Rockefeller clan black mark: the world is on the verge of a super crisis

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Street riots, mass panic, nationalizations and social unrest, which the world has not seen for the last 50 years - these are the terms used by leading analyst at JP Morgan Bank (USA) Marko Kolanovich.

In honor of the tenth anniversary since the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008, Mr. Kolanovich released a special analytical report, from which it follows that the global financial markets are now more vulnerable to the new crisis than they were. ten years ago. In the event of the implementation of the most negative of the scenarios presented, the crisis will be so comprehensivethat in order to save the economy, central banks will even have to carry out actual operations to nationalize the most affected companies by buying out their shares on the market.

Such a negative outlook, which, moreover, was formulated in the most unflattering terms and was filled with harsh criticism of the regulators of the American and global financial markets, it would be easy (but wrong) to write off the desire of another analyst to win the glory of a prophet or media attention, especially that such apocalyptic predictions usually do not come true. The problem is that there are ordinary analysts, there are well-known analysts, there are experienced analysts. and there is Marko Kolanovic. The latter's forecast attracted the attention of the world business media precisely because it has a well-deserved reputation for being not prone to excessive pessimism, but who sometimes accurately predicted previous problematic episodes in world markets. You can understand the logic of journalists: a person who has predicted several small crises may well be able to predict the emergence of a large one.

Moreover: to the leading analysts of the bank Jp morgan, which manages assets of $ 2.7 trillion and is traditionally considered the "family bank" of the Rockefellers, random people don't get caughtand, accordingly, Kolanovich himself has a reputation as a kind of "clairvoyant mathematician" who calculates the movements of the markets in the same way that astronomers calculate the movements of the planets.

Kolanovich's argument, who became a Ph. D. in physics before the desire to make really big money forced him to go to work on Wall Street, boils down to several theses that relate to the vulnerability of the existing structure of financial markets.

In the ten years that have passed since the 2008 crisis, the number of exchange transactions and financial decisions made by automated computerized systems has increased dramatically. It is worth emphasizing that these decisions are made without human intervention, literally in a split second. According to the Aite Group, which was quoted by The Economist magazine in 2014, approximately 65% of the volume of transactions in the American stock market is made by computer algorithms, not people. Kolanovich has already described several mini-crises (for example, this February, when the American market was losing several percent a day for no apparent reason), which were caused by the "herd behavior" of computer programs, rolling in trillions of dollars. The fact is that almost all such programs contain instructions that can be translated into human language as follows: "If something incomprehensible or unusual happens, sell everything right now." The result is a chain reaction in which some computers first "panic" from some external shock, starting to sell their stock portfolios at any available price, then other computers notice this, which also start selling, and so on, until the market crashes … In the past, such situations were stopped by people who entered the market in order to buy suddenly cheaper shares, but over the past ten years, almost all of them have been fired as unnecessary. Moreover, they cost much more than computers, which do not need to pay salaries, pay for vacations and for which there is no need to make pension contributions. Kolanovich calls this chain reaction "the great liquidity crisis" and suggests that central bank printing presses- with unpredictable social and economic consequences.

One would assume that such a crisis would be very short-lived and in the end people would put things in order in the market, as a result of which everything would be restored. But this will only happen if the same external shock that triggers the initial chain reaction is short-lived. The problem is that if the shock will turn out to be systemic, then the market will no longer be pumped out by conventional methods. In this context, it is useful to look at another prophet of the crisis - the chief economist of the rating agency Moody's Mark Zandi, who (also under the "anniversary" of the 2008 crisis) published an analytical note outlining a very likely scenario of the very shock, which may well lead to a repeat of the global financial crisis.

Mr. Zandi claims that last time the crisis began in the real estate market and then spread to the entire financial sector and the economy as a whole, and this time the epicenter of the crisis and the starting point of the chain reaction will most likely become the debt-backed American companies. This assessment stems from the fact that US monetary and regulatory policies over the past decade have resulted in there was a bubble of lending to "junk" companies, which, under a tighter monetary policy, should not have had easy access to borrowed funds at all. The potentially toxic debts of debt-backed American companies are about $ 2.7 trillion and are growing rapidly. A significant portion of the debts of already loaned American companies are floating rate debts, and if the Fed continues to raise the rate, both these companies and their creditors will fall like dominoes. The economist at Moody's emphasizes that it is too early to confidently assert that these toxic debts will lead to the collapse, but the similarity of the situation with the eve of the 2008-2009 crisis suggests unkind thoughts. It is noteworthy that Moody's has already drawn the attention of its clients to the fact that an unprecedented "wave of corporate defaults of" junk "companies" is approaching America and this "wave" will lead to serious negative consequences for the economy as a whole.

It is not hard to guess that such a "default tsunami" is just perfect as a strong external shock that will cause stock market panic.

Due to the fact that the modern world economy is highly integrated, in the event of another crisis in the United States, even countries that have nothing to do with its genesis will suffer, like last time. This is the nature of globalization. But, unlike 2008, in the event of another crisis, many countries will certainly have a desire to reverse globalization, and if possible - isolate Washington on the American continent and rid the rest of the world of its undeniably toxic political and economic influence.