Profit of Russian banks for the year increased fivefold, metallurgy - minus 2.3%

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Banks are bursting with money, factories with lack of money. The data of the Ministry of Economic Development show that the crisis is deepening. Hopes that the crisis has been overcome, as well-known experts and officials have repeatedly said at the end of last year, are denied by the data of the weekly monitoring of the Ministry of Economic Development.

A generalizing indicator - the volume of GDP - decreased by one percent over the year …

A drop in the gross domestic product by one percent (against its increase by about 0.6 percent, which was predicted by the Government in December) is in itself non-tragic, if not accompanied by failures in the real sector of the economy: it is likely that this percentage was lost in the financial and the credit sphere due to the fact that currency speculators have ceased to receive replenishment from their foreign partners, including those who know which doors the US Federal Reserve System should enter.

But the main trouble is that the fall affected precisely those branches of material production in which a positive and stable tendency has been outlined not only towards growth, but also towards entering world markets with control over its corresponding segments. Agriculture has lost, albeit a little - 0.2 percent, but the very fact of farmers leaving for the negative growth zone is extremely unpleasant.

Metallurgy (minus 2.3 percent), the production of vehicles (minus 3) and, let us highlight, construction materials (minus 6.6 percent) lost more noticeably, which means that there may not be enough resources for investment activity in 2017. This is also evidenced by the fall in the construction sector, which in December reached 5.4 percent. The pattern here is simple: no construction - no development.

Yes, no doubt, it makes me happy that the chemical, textile and food industries have retained their positions and even increased the potential, but this can largely be explained by value indicators that depend on currency volatility: the ruble has strengthened, respectively, the industries oriented to the domestic market have won.

Decently, by 3.8 percent, the production of complex mechanical engineering products with a high level of added value has grown, transportation has increased by 1.8 percent, which is undoubtedly a positive sign: not all industries have fallen into a stagnation loop.

The only sector that, against the background of a general decline, demonstrates not even confident, but rapid growth, is the banking system. The so-called net profit of Russian banks increased fivefold over the year - up to 930 billion rubles!

But at the same time lending to the economy(legal entities) decreasedby 9.5 percent, and the volume of deposits in the accounts of organizations - by 10 percent.

According to any laws of economic science, such a discrepancy between profits, loans and attracted funds cannot be. There is only one exception - if the bank's profit is obtained mainly by foreign exchange speculationsand playing on the stock market. This type of activity, for which neither the economy nor lending is needed, is very profitable, but it provokes inflation, since it is not accompanied by an adequate increase in the production of material values.

In our case, apparently, part of the profit is exported abroad, and partly remains at the disposal of banks and does not directly affect the rise in prices. Last year, the Central Bank even announced "excess liquidity" (there is too much money in credit institutions, to put it simply) and began to attract bank resources to its deposits, which are not in demand by the economy: this movement is hindered by the high key rate of the Central Bank.

At the same time, according to preliminary data from the well-known international agency Atradius Economic Research, the number of bankruptcies of legal entities in 2016 increased by one percent, and the number of bankruptcy cases tried in courts increased by 17 percent. The main reason is the insufficient monetization of the economy, when there are not enough funds even to service current needs, not to mention development.

What to do? After all, a little over a year ago, at the request of the Government, the legislators also envisaged anti-crisis measures (which, however, were barely implemented by half, as the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation found out) and outlined steps to attract investment into the economy? Why didn't it work in full?

Sergey Katasonov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes, believes that such a result was predictable for all economists familiar with the problems of real production.

It is necessary to consistently increase the incomes of the population, the deputy believes, stimulating consumer demand, which will ultimately become a source of investment along the entire technological chain focused on the final buyer.

In the meantime, the anti-inflationary policy of the Central Bank, apparently, has become an end in itself: the real incomes of the population due to the contraction of the money supply, in particular, decreased by almost six percent in 201, which entailed a reduction in retail turnover by 5.9 percent.

In addition to a signal that social standards are falling, the data means that this source of investment - the most theoretically abundant - also remains in the negative zone, along with 23 trillion rubles of household deposits that are stuck in banks, without having a tangible impact on the development of industry and rural areas.

Viktor Zubarev, in the recent past the Minister of Economic Development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, and now a member of the State Duma Committee on Energy, is also very critical of the policy of the Central Bank, concluding that an urgent need to reduce the key rate.

Without this, investments in production and, most importantly, in infrastructure projects will not go, Zubarev said. Two steps - affordable loans and the construction of bridges, railways, modern highways can, if not pull the economy completely out of the crisis, then reverse the negative trend in its development - for sure, the deputy believes.

It would be wrong to push all problems into the financial and credit sphere; about half of the FAIP (federal targeted investment programs) are not being implemented, although there are no problems with budget financing. Low professionalism of planning, as the Accounts Chamber has repeatedly noted? Probably. But also the inconsistency of material flows with cash.

Simply put, there is more money in the economy and banks than material values in the coordinates of existing prices. Such a discrepancy that hinders the development of the economy was pointed out by the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy Sergei Kalashnikov, who developed a fundamental concept dedicated to the development of Russian regions.

The political requirement for the socio-economic bloc of the Government and prominent economists is to form a clear and understandable model of economic management by May, of course, taking into account the experience and results of the last crisis years.

The main proposals and arguments in which direction it is advisable to reform the economy, legislators (and not only them) formulated repeatedly. Will they be considered this time?

What can you say here? As long as the corrupt deputies of all colors will give the usurers a green light, because they feed on them, - until then, our economy will drag out a miserable existence. And accordingly, we all too.

Our cowardly servants, of course, not the people, but the bankers - these miserable creatures despised by the people in the Duma armchairs perfectly understand the immorality of usury. They understand, they cannot but understand, because two millennia ago, many, including the famous Aristotle, directly declared the immorality of loan interest.

They understand, but they don't even want to try to change the existing slavery of the country and the people. Slave in relation to a small handful of Jewish bankers who took over the government of the country completely through the system of usury. And this happened even before the revolution, from the moment when the Minister of Finance Witte slipped a Jewish whore, which led to the introduction of the gold ruble, which was destructive for Russia.

And, pay attention, despite all the meanness and baseness of the behavior of the deputies of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation or the SR, the top of these parties does not hesitate to use the holy words for the Russian people "communism" and "justice" for self-promotion. Not to mention United Russia, where the word "Russia" they have lost by their actions so that in the future in the museum of the fascist era of liberalism, the party logos will decorate exclusively the latrines of the museum.

And today's speculators and usurers … If we lived in more correct times, then the best tool for cleansing the country of them is known: wall.

But today's time is different - democratic, therefore such clear recommendations should not be issued. So we don't give them …