Should we wait for the second wave of coronavirus?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Rumors that the COVID-19 quarantine will be reintroduced in September flashes in our information field. We decided to figure out what they are connected with and whether there are real prerequisites for the second wave and new restrictions.

Why are they afraid of autumn?

Note that any statements and opinions are a subjective assessment of what is happening. However, from the big picture, we can better understand the trend.

So, for example, virologist, professor Anatoly Altstein predicted the beginning of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia in October-November.

In an interview with the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, the scientist said that the seasonality of the coronavirus is not as pronounced as the experts expected, and the hopes that the infection would subside with the onset of heat did not come true.

But we were wrong. Yes, a slight decrease is noticeable, but, apparently, in October-November, when it becomes cool and damp, the coronavirus will raise its head.

Anatoly Altstein, virologist and professor

According to Altstein, according to the theory, over time, the virus begins to adapt to the human population. It is not profitable for the coronavirus to kill its owner; it is in its interests so that people continue to communicate with each other and the virus can be transmitted to new and new owners.

In other words, there are suggestions that in the second wave, COVID-19 will become a more widespread disease, but the number of severe cases will decrease. Although viruses that are widespread in Russia, and today have a low mortality rate at the level of 1.5-2%.

Another concern is the case with Australia. It is winter now in the country, and the second wave of the disease has begun there. Experts point out that it is even worse than the first.

The second wave of coronavirus in Australia is getting stronger than the first: the authorities are reporting new records for daily growth, including the period of the first wave, which began in March. It is winter now in Australia, and the rise in the number of cases in the country shows a "disturbing trend" that subsequent waves of COVID-19 may be stronger than previous ones, especially when conditions are favorable for infection, writes Bloomberg. Such favorable conditions can be, among other things, cold weather, when people hide from the weather in closed spaces.

Moscow

Another reason why fears about spring came from: the publication in the Octagon media, which said that Sobyanin was preparing Moscow for the second wave of coronavirus. The journalists relied on "a source familiar with the situation", who said that the mayor of Moscow issued a "closed order to prepare for the second wave of coronavirus incidence."

The text stated that from September 20, quarantine with self-isolation, electronic passes and the closure of shops and restaurants will be reintroduced in Moscow. The authors of the material associated this with the City Day on September 5 (the Moscow authorities are preparing for it, but are not sure that the holiday will take place anyway) and with the Single Election Day on September 13 (although in Moscow there will be elections only in two districts - Babushkinsky and Maryino).

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin at the end of July in an interview with "Russia 24" commented on rumors about the resumption of quarantine - and denied everything.

The second wave is when people are in danger of being infected a second time. There is practically no such thing anywhere in the world. Why is there such rapid growth in a number of regions? Because they have not even passed the first wave yet.

Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow

Note that now in the capital there is no single dynamic with regard to the identified cases of the disease.

If in mid-July, about 550 infected people were detected every day in the capital, then at the beginning of August - already about 650. But, most likely, this data does not reflect an increase in the number of infections, but a new strategy for testing for coronavirus, which allows to identify more infected.

The official explanation looks like this: in the city on July 16, they launched a program of free testing in polyclinics, which is why now 5 thousand more PCR tests are performed every day. According to Meduza's model, if at the beginning of July 10% of cases were detected, then at the end of the month - 13%.

Saint Petersburg

At the end of July it became known that an almost tenfold increase in community-acquired pneumonia was recorded in St. Petersburg. The largest increase in their number, according to city statistics, fell on May 2020.

In May 2020, 9,560 cases of community-acquired pneumonia were recorded in St. Petersburg, which is 9, 9 times more than in the same period last year. Such data are contained in the report of Petrostat "Socio-economic situation of St. Petersburg in January-June 2020".

In the first five months of 2020, 27,878 people died in St. Petersburg, which is 2,148 more than in the same period last year. Due to the smaller number of births, the natural decline in the city was 5,356 people in 2020 against 2,083 in the past.

Yesterday, August 5, the authorities of St. Petersburg received a letter from Rospotrebnadzor, in which the chief sanitary doctor Anna Popova proposes to weaken a number of restrictions on coronavirus in the city. This was announced by the vice-governor Oleg Ergashev.

According to the official, this is favored by both a decrease in the prevalence of COVID-19 and a decrease in the number of hospitalizations of patients. And the number of patients in intensive care beds is decreasing.

The city has already taken some easing measures, typical for the second stage of lifting restrictions, in particular, kindergartens, shops, shopping centers, swimming pools, fitness centers are operating, albeit with some nuances. But Smolny will certainly add new indulgences to this.

Yekaterinburg

We should expect an inevitable increase in the incidence of COVID-19 and a new increase in the burden on the health care system at the end of August and September, Soloviev said.

And there are several reasons for this: mass vacations of residents of the region in the conditions of overcrowded resort areas, international tourism, lack of control measures for compliance with the requirements for preventing infection in public places, in transport, when returning to work in collectives, the beginning of the school year in schools and universities.

If everyone goes to shopping centers en masse and returns from the Krasnodar Territory, we may not go down from the current incidence rates of COVID-19.

Doctor-epidemiologist

On August 4, it became known that in the Sverdlovsk region, regional fines for violating the self-isolation regime and the mask regime were canceled. Amendments to the regional code of administrative offenses were adopted by the deputies of the Legislative Assembly.

Kazan

On August 1, it became known that the government of Tatarstan made a decision on another easing of restrictions previously imposed due to the pandemic of the new coronavirus infection. It was allowed to hold leisure, sports and entertainment events in the open air with the number of participants not more than 50, the corresponding decree is published on the website of the regional government.

At the same time, a prerequisite for such events is a prior written notification of the Rospotrebnadzor administration in Tatarstan at least 7 days in advance.

It is important to note that among other large cities, Kazan has the lowest increase in cases. Local residents note that the city takes good precautions: sellers, owners of establishments make sure that customers do not congregate in one place and wear personal protective equipment.

Sochi

In early August, an increase in the number of people infected with the virus was recorded in Sochi. This follows from the official data published on the website of the Krasnodar Territory administration.

Earlier, the governor of the Krasnodar Territory, Veniamin Kondratyev, announced a stable epidemiological situation in the resorts of the Krasnodar Territory, despite the increase in infection cases.

Doctors say that it is not tourists sunbathing in the open air that are susceptible to illness, but office workers. Coronavirus spreads better in unventilated areas.

Now all services in the region are trying to extinguish the flames of infection that have flared up again until the fall. But, if the epidemiological situation deteriorates, quarantine restrictions may be reintroduced in the Kuban. Let us remind you that now there is a high alert mode in the region.

According to the latest data today, August 6, in Sochi, the most positive results for coronavirus were detected - 46. In total, during the pandemic in the Krasnodar Territory, the virus was confirmed in 8,946 people, including 673 children.

Until August 21, a high alert regime is in effect in the Krasnodar Territory. In July, local authorities lifted most of the restrictions imposed during the pandemic, including on passenger transport and the operation of catering establishments, hotels, shops, as well as fitness centers, swimming pools and water parks.

What's the bottom line?

The situation in large cities is completely different, some are softening the measures, others, on the contrary, presumably, are preparing to tighten them. In a pandemic, we cannot say about the second wave for the entire country, because the situation is individual. However, there are general patterns: in cities where, for some reason, the circulation of local residents and visitors to the city is not controlled, there are multiple outbreaks, we can see this in the resort of Sochi.

Now such a period, when the sun warms both in the Crimea and in the middle lane, and the amount of vitamins B and A, which are absolutely necessary and very much contribute to the production of interferons of our innate immunity, our interferon [was] higher than in winter. Vitamins help the formation of those proteins in our body that the coronavirus RNA directly grabbed and destroyed. Therefore, there is some definite protection, and the number of severe cases [of coronavirus infection] is less, and the epidemiological process is not as acute as in winter or autumn.

Alexander Gintsburg Director of the National Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology named after N. F. Gamaleya, Ministry of Health of Russia

However, it is not known what awaits us in the autumn-winter period, we can be guided by the experience of Australia and recommendations for protecting our body.