Russian timber is exported to China: analysis by numbers

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

We devoted the 300th anniversary edition of the project to the very important topic of exporting Russian timber to China. This topic is surrounded by many myths and may become a point of political tension in the near future. This study uses not only materials from specialized publications, but also reports from the UN, Greenpeace, and official statistics from Russia and China.

All numbers are under this video:

All of Siberia is leased to the Chinese, the scale of deforestation is such that in 10 years there will be a bare desert - such statements are increasingly common on the Internet. Some blindly believe them, others simply brush it off, claiming that all this is fake. We decided to put an end to a long dispute and sort out today's special issue. As always, based only on figures and facts.

How much does China export

The first figure that will help us understand the situation is the volume of Russian timber exports to China. China is indeed the largest buyer of our timber due to the fact that we have a convenient land border and quality timber. According to official data, we sell about 22 million cubic meters of timber products to our neighbor per year.

It is practically impossible to export timber bypassing customs, and if it does exist, then in scanty volumes. However, there remains the possibility of fraud at the customs itself with an underestimation of the volume of exports. The approximate scale can be calculated based on the needs of China. They are about 170 million cubic meters per year, about 100 of them are closed by China itself, and at least 30 million cubic meters are supplied to China from other countries. It turns out that if we proceed from the bold assumption that only in Russia suppliers underestimate the volumes of export, then in total we sell to our neighbor 40 million cubic meters per year. Now let's figure out how much it is.

How much forest is there in Russia

Russia has about one fifth of the world's total timber reserves. The total area is over 750 million hectares, which is more than Canada, Sweden, Norway, USA and Finland. However, not all timber is suitable for industrial harvesting. In total, for these purposes, we have a reserve of 30 billion cubic meters, which is three times higher than the same figure for the reserves of Canada and the United States.

Therefore, if we assume that China will buy up Russian timber at the same rate as now, then even taking into account the black exports we have calculated, it will take about 800 years to export all industrial resources. But this will never happen for several reasons.

Firstly, China is increasing its own timber production and intends to significantly reduce the volume of imports in 10-15 years. Secondly, the forest is a renewable resource and, with the right approach, it is almost endless. Thirdly, we are not the only ones working with China, and the same Canada, New Zealand, Finland, the USA and other countries are fiercely competing for the right to sell their timber to China.

However, all of the above does not mean that we can now relax. We really have enough problems in the forestry sector.

Are the Chinese to blame?

The idea that all of Siberia and Primorye are flooded with Chinese lumberjacks who steal and secretly take out our timber is not true. China simply does not need to take such a risk, because the citizens of Russia themselves, among other things, are illegally cutting timber for them. And the Chinese just buy it and send it home. Yes, they often participate in illegal transactions, but they are impossible without the participation of the Russian side. And the main problem here is not so much in the scale of the shadow business as in its barbaric nature. Forests are cut down randomly with gross violations, and there is no question of any compensatory forest restoration.

But worst of all, unauthorized dumps are formed at the sites of felling, which often lead to fires. Namely, fires today are destroying much more forest than illegal mining. Last year alone, 4.5 million hectares of forest were affected by fires in Russia. If it were only industrial timber, it would have been exported to China for 22 years.

Now let's talk about what the state is doing to conserve our forest resources.

How the forest is protected

It would be unfair to say that the state turns a blind eye to the situation. The first step was to reduce the export of unprocessed round timber and stimulate the export of sawn timber. Therefore, back in 2008, protective customs duties were introduced on the export of round timber, which led to a sharp reduction in the export of timber raw materials and the development of its own processing. The results are clearly visible in these graphs:

At the same time, it was forbidden to cut down rare and especially valuable forest species on pain of criminal punishment. In relation to the forest, the EGAIS system began to be used. As a result, every tree is tracked all the way through its commercial life - from the place where it was felled to the border crossing. As a result, the volume of detected violations and the number of criminal cases increased by 6 times.

Now the state has gone further and decided to stimulate deep processing of wood using complex biochemical technologies. For this, industry clusters, public-private partnership projects are being created, we talked about many in our issues.

And, literally, the other day a bill was finally adopted, which provides for the mandatory restoration of forests after felling. They are obliged to plant seedlings in a volume equal to the cutting area within one year after the work. And the same breed. Or contribute an equivalent amount to a fund that is independently engaged in reforestation.

conclusions

- The problem of illegal logging in Russia and smuggling to China exists and it is stupid to deny it. Its scale is not as great as popular rumor draws;

- The Chinese do not steal Russian timber, but buy it from our dealers, who themselves easily violate the laws in pursuit of profit;

- Selling timber abroad is normal. The largest economies in the world are fighting for the right to supply to China;

- Forest is a renewable resource. It can and should be sold, but at the same time, felling should be carried out according to the rules and disposed of efficiently, in which we are still inferior to many forest countries;

- We need to continue to strive to sell not raw materials or products of elementary processing, but more complex products created in our territory - furniture, paper, house kits, etc.;

- Only the state is able to put things in order in the forestry sector with the help of tariff measures and strict control;

- Any strengthening of control over the industry in the future will be accompanied by protests from those who are used to feeding on illegal business, which means that we will still have protests on this topic and attempts to give it a political character.