The will to win. Russia in the face of a shortage of historical time

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Last year marked the 100th anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution. With what results did the Russian Federation meet the anniversary of the Great October Revolution, the holiday of which - November 7 - was canceled and "hung" with an artificial Day of National Unity with whom it is not clear who (similar to the bashful hanging of the word "Lenin" on the Mausoleum during parades)?

In August 2017, as if on the occasion of the anniversary of the October Revolution, an international team of experts led by T. Piketty, author of the scientific bestseller Capital in the 21st Century, published a report "From Soviets to Oligarchs: Inequality and Property in Russia in 1905-2016." The report is on the Internet and we have already thrown it into the information space (this was done by ES Larina in an interview with "Komsomolskaya Pravda"). According to the report, the volume of Russian offshore capital exceeds the level of the country's foreign exchange reserves by about three times. In 2015, the volume of assets taken offshore amounted to about 75% of the country's national income. In other words, offshore centers contain almost as much of the finances of wealthy Russians as the entire population of the Russian Federation keeps inside the country.

According to the Global Wealth Report, 1% of wealthy Russians account for 71% of all personal assets in Russia. For comparison: the 1% of the rich in India account for 49% of personal assets, in Africa - 44%, in the United States - 37%, in China and Europe - 32%, in Europe - 17%. The world average is 46%, while in our country it is 71%, that is, the wealthy in Russia have exceeded world indicators by 1.6 times. Another indicator by which the Russian Federation is leading is the share of the wealthiest 5% of the population in the personal wealth of the country - 82.5%. The remaining 95, therefore, have 17, 5% - and, as they say, do not deny yourself anything! Another killer figure: 96 Russian billionaires own 30% of all personal assets of Russian citizens. The world average is 2%. That is, Russian billionaires are 15 times cooler than the world's average.

According to Knight Frank, which is cited in a report prepared under the leadership of T. Piketty, in the Russian Federation the number of multimillionaires with over $ 30 million, centmillionaires over $ 100 million, and billionaires increased from 2004 to 2014 by 3.5 times and, according to the forecast, by 2024 it will increase by one and a half times. And the other side of the coin is as follows: from 1992 to 2016, $ 1, 7 trillion was stolen from Russia in the form of illegal financial flows, and $ 5 trillion worth of raw materials was exported in 25 years. But Marx once wrote that property is not theft, but a legal relationship.

According to the Global Burden of Disease Studies, the Russian Federation ranks 119th in the world in terms of the state of health of its citizens; in the rating of the comfort of life of older people (the size of pensions, health status, quality of the social environment), the Russian Federation is in 79th place out of 91. According to our Rosstat, 22, 7 million people. (15.7%) have an income below the subsistence level (which, by the way, is understated in our country), that is, they are poor. According to Eurostat criteria, the poor are those who have an income below 60% of the median income in a given country. We have 25% of them.

But from recent data: On October 6, RIA Novosti reported that the Russian Federation came out on top in Europe in terms of early male mortality: 43% of men in the Russian Federation die before reaching the age of 65. In Ukraine and Belarus, this figure is 40%, in Moldova - 37%, in Lithuania - 36%. When asked why this happens, experts say that one of the reasons is the trauma and stress that men received in the 1990s. That is, in other words, the capitalist structure in Russia may well exist, but capitalist Russia as a whole is dying or simply dead Russia.

Capitalism as a system for Russia as a whole can exist only to plunder the country, as a means of this process. And since the main factor in the accumulation of funds by the upper classes was the devouring and plundering of the Soviet heritage, production itself did not develop.

Recently, a very interesting interview was given by one of the best specialists in the economic history of the USSR G. Khanin, the author of the three-volume economic history of the USSR and the Russian Federation. As Khanin notes, “from 1992 to 2015, Russia's GDP did not grow by 13.4% at all, as Rosstat assures, but decreased by 10.2%. Labor productivity during this time did not increase by 9.2%, but decreased by 30, one%". That is, our economy has not yet reached the 1991 level. And to the journalist Trushkin's question "can we overcome the lag behind developed countries?" Khanin, as a sober person and a patriot, answers: "It is unthinkable to overcome. Imagine that you are standing at the start, and your rivals have gone 5 kilometers ahead." The country's leadership, Khanin is convinced, relies on erroneous data on the economy and underestimates the depth of the problems. The illusion arises that economic growth is possible without serious costs.

“I figured,” says Khanin, “that in 2015 prices, to preserve fixed assets and increase them by 3% a year, 14.6 trillion rubles of investments will be required, plus 900 billion rubles in working capital and in the development of human capital, that is 10.3 trillion rubles should be invested in education, healthcare, and scientific research. All together, this amounts to 25.8 trillion rubles a year - a third of our GDP. " To the journalist's question "and nothing can be done?" - Khanin says: “The gap can be narrowed.: 1 to 6: 1. That is, up to the rate that exists in most Western European countries, but this will take many years."

Here I have to disagree with Khanin. We do not have many years - taking into account the geopolitical situation, and taking into account the impending global crisis, and taking into account the socio-economic situation in the country. In addition, in general, no one has succeeded in the evolutionary redistribution of income in favor of the poor and the poor. This is a revolutionary measure. The question is whether it is done from above or from below. In short, the absence of redistributive measures is leading the country straight to disaster, since the solution of Russia's economic problems is impossible without a preliminary solution of social problems. In turn, social problems, that is, inequality, cannot be solved otherwise than by political means. A political decision presupposes the presence of an ideology, which, according to the Constitution, does not exist in the RF de jure. As I said in one interview, the lot of those who have no ideology is a picnic on the sidelines of History. And in the threatening time that is approaching on a global scale, this may no longer be the sidelines of History, but its parasha. True, the Constitution contains the thesis that the Russian Federation is a social state. Here it is just right to present to the authorities: "Observe our / your Constitution." However, someone, instead of making demands, chooses a different path. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the number of people leaving the Russian Federation is constantly growing: 2011 - 36 774 people, 2012 - 122 751 people, 2013 - 186 382 people, 2014 - 310 496 people, 2015 - 353 233 people. Of those 10 million who have left over the past 30 years, 1.5 million are scientists, mainly young and promising. This is an asymmetric response to the situation in the RAS, which is determined by two factors: the inertia and inadequacy of the leadership of the RAS itself to the modern world and its pogrom from the outside under the guise of reforms.

Here we come to the question: what should be the ideology in the new Russia? I have no answer to this question: I do not know what the new ideology of Russia (or the ideology of the new Russia) should be. But I know what it should not be and cannot, otherwise Russia will not expect anything except the chronicle of the announced death. The ideology of the new Russia cannot be bourgeois or, as we often say, "liberal". And the point here is not only that in Russia liberalism, the monarchy and the ROC discredited themselves in February - March 1917. The fact is that liberalism in the world died in the 1910s, immediately after at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries. capitalism has exhausted its economic potential (its achievements in the twentieth century are provided non-economically), and what is called "liberalism" or "neoliberalism" today has nothing to do with real liberalism. The current Russian "liberal Westernizers" look very wretched. However, those who are called "patriotic statesmen" and "imperials" also have enough problems.

The main one is the socio-economic, class content of neo-empire. While advocating a tough Stalinist course, other imperials do not understand an elementary thing: the Stalinist system is incompatible even with a socialist (anti-capitalist) oligarchy, not to mention a capitalist-type oligarchy. An attempt to combine empire and capitalism in Russian history was already at the end of the 19th - beginning of the 20th century. and failed miserably. Therefore, you should neither step on a rake, nor depict "clap with one palm." Stalin's methods work only under conditions of anti-capitalism, and under Russian conditions this is not Pinochet, which some liberals dreamed of in the 1990s, but something like a "tandem" between Yeltsin and Berezovsky. There is no other way in our reality. Conclusion: the question of neo-empire (or of an imperial-like formation), of the "Stalinist legacy" is not a political question, but a socioeconomic one, if you like, a class one. A different formulation of the question is, at best, empty chatter, at worst, a provocation.

Ideology cannot look into the past and, moreover, cling to the debris of a bygone era: that is, kings and priests are the past; all hopes for the restoration of the monarchy are a look into the past. It is impossible to go into the future looking back all the time. Nor should we be allowed to reduce our history to its last - Christian - millennium, depriving us of at least two or three millennia of our pre-Christian history, which was not at all an era of savagery and lack of culture. On the contrary, it was then that the foundation and the first floors of the Rus building were created. Russia of the last millennium has grown on a strong foundation of Russian, Slavic and Indo-European traditions, organically intertwined with each other. Byzantine Christianity (10th century), Petrine Westernism (18th century), Soviet communism (anti-capitalism, 20th century) became only later layers, superstructures on this powerful historical foundation, which significantly changed the strata and adapted them to itself.

Outwardly, this foundation may not seem like something solid, but an amorphous mass, which in itself does not generate power pyramids. In Russia, “the rulers,” writes O. Markeev, “always brought the idea of a pyramid from outside, fascinated by the order and splendor of overseas countries. by itself, in order to suddenly and unexpectedly destroy with one powerful impulse, the bubbling energy of the womb […] The only question is time and patience of the masses. " And one more thing: "the mass only from the height of the pyramid seems like a jelly … inside it conceals a rigid crystal lattice, from which it forges rods that pierce the next pyramid of power brought in from abroad, and … only these rods give the pyramid stability and integrity; it is worth removing them, nothing will save the state pyramid from collapse."

Our "grids" are much older and stronger than the "pyramids", the ideology of the new Russia must take this into account and take them into account in the first place - this is required by the elementary principles of consistency and historicism.

Ideology should give a clear definition of the future desirable for the majority of the country (goal) and name, at least in the most general terms, the means of achieving it (present). It must clearly define the attitude towards the past, first of all, towards the Soviet one. There are clear markers here - phenomena, events and figures: Stalin, Gorbachev; perestroika as the destruction of the USSR; Soviet system; capitalism; Yeltsin and Yeltsin. The position on these issues makes it clear: with whom are you, the masters of power, with the people or not? You cannot be with the people, winking at the West and flirting with those whom the authorities themselves from time to time call "the fifth column."

Ideology is also symbolism: coat of arms, flag, anthem. Fortunately, our anthem, albeit with changed words, is Soviet. The situation is different with the coat of arms and flag. I cannot say that I am delighted with the two-headed eagle, but eagle heads with crowns returned not so long ago are preferable to heads devoid of crowns - it is this kind of chicken-like birds that appeared on the coat of arms of the Provisional Government in February 1917 and the Yeltsin Russian Federation sample of 1992. Then the tricolor was returned.

As for the flag, it should symbolize power and historical victory. He should remind of victories and in no case should he be associated with defeats and stained with betrayal. White-blue-red was the flag of the Provisional Government, which destroyed the country and, in fact, threw state sovereignty under the feet of Russia's worst enemy - Great Britain. Under this flag, the Vlasovites, who served Hitler, killed their own, Russians, participated together with the Croats in punitive actions against the Serbian partisans. It is no coincidence that during the Victory Parade on July 25, 1941, the Vlasov tricolor flew to the foot of the Mausoleum along with the flags of the Wehrmacht, SS and other flags of the enemy defeated by the Soviet Union.

But the red flag is the flag of Victory, the flag of the restoration of historical Russia in the form of the USSR. This flag was over the Reichstag. And one more very important thing: Svyatoslav had a red flag. It was, however, not a star and a hammer and sickle, but the sun! I don't care what happens there, but the flag should be red. Red means beautiful, it is the traditional Russian victory color.

And do not look back at what the West will say. First, it is humiliating, just as humiliating is the constant discussion of what Trump said, etc. Secondly, it is useless to look around: there we were appointed not just guilty, but victims, as the Italian philosopher D. Agamben would say, who do not even have the right to a defense speech. Russia and the Russians, apparently, have a "final solution" to our question - both in itself and because with its help the masters of the world game will try to prolong the life (dying) of their own system and eliminate the Russians as the only people, as the only civilization, which is able to oppose them with its own version of the future, and not a local-regional one, like the Chinese, Indians or even Muslims, but a universal global one. It is clear that an attempt will be made to remove the carrier of such a potential threat. Therefore, there is no need to look back to the west and be afraid to violate the flags placed around us over the past quarter of a century - "for the flags - the thirst for life is stronger!" (V. Vysotsky).

The authorities in Russia must clearly define the Russian question. The "Russian world" should be created not outside the borders of the Russian Federation, not on the territory of the former USSR, but above all in Russia itself. This should manifest itself in different ways: both in fixing the status of Russians as a state-forming people, and in tough opposition to Russophobia and the destruction of Russian culture, and in many other things. Otherwise, the Russian world is a fiction, a props, an opportunistic bureaucratic scheme.

Yuri Trifonov, in his best, in my opinion, novel "The Old Man" noted that "old age is a time when there is no time." Aldeady no. Capitalism, the capitalist Post-West has no time. "The Portrait of Dorian Gray" is rapidly dispersed, and in place of the image of a gallant man in the prime of his years, something appears between the super-old face of a century-old Rockefeller, physiognomies from the paintings of Bosch or Grunewald and the ruthlessly cold face of a reptile. And buying additional time of its existence is something, this undead is going, including at our expense. Brzezinski said that the world of the 21st century will be built on the ruins of Russia, at the expense of Russia and to the detriment of Russia. As Ilya Muromets used to say in similar cases: "But you won't choke, you rotten Idolische?"

It was during the Soviet era that "Idolische" wore the mask of a fighter for human rights, primarily in the USSR, a defender of dissidents, Sugar, Solzhenitsyn, etc. But then the USSR left, the masks were thrown off, and nature crawled out from under them - the faces of Lie and Evil, rude turned inside out. Let's remember Vysotsky:

And the grin of death. Indeed: Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine - death, coffins, crows. It is impossible to negotiate with Evil and Lies, or rather, their personifications - Gaddafi tried. Short-term tactical truces or even alliances with a lesser evil against a greater one are possible (for example, an alliance of the USSR with Great Britain and the United States within the framework of the anti-Hitler coalition) - nothing more. It should be remembered that the "partners" are constantly ready to organize the "unthinkable" - like Churchill, who planned on July 1, 1945, a strike against the Soviet army by the force of German (mainly) and Anglo-American divisions.

The authorities will have to give an answer as to whether its orientation is traditional Russian or non-traditional (pro) Western. In addition, there may not be time left afterwards. The delay of death is similar, as one classic used to say, who found himself in an acute situation a hundred years ago. And you can't sit on two chairs anymore: the examples of Nicholas II and Gorbachev should be in front of your eyes, especially since in three decades the chairs have departed, and Western predators only need one chair, the second they needlessly, they will knock it out - so why Keep? By the same chair - and by the adversary. In short, to drag out time and delay the choice, the decision will no longer work: circumstances will not allow, they are clearly stronger than such an intention, if any. It makes no sense to shy away from a fight when it is inevitable. I will never forget how Yu. V. Andropov, when he became General Secretary, immediately declared that the imperialists should not be afraid of us - if they do not touch us, then we will not touch them either. How shoud I understand this? No, the timid and short-sighted General Secretary of the CPSU, the imperialists should be afraid of us, only in this case they will not dare to touch us.

Today, the solution to the problems of the Russian Federation is not just the creation of a mobilization economy, this is secondary. A high-tech mobilization economy in the current conditions can only be created by a society with high social efficiency, whose members will have something to fight for and what to protect. Unfortunately, there are fewer and fewer grounds for optimism, and the government’s socioeconomic course, which logically develops Yeltsin’s line of stagnating the economy and eliminating the welfare state, which, by the way, is spelled out in our Constitution, is not particularly encouraging.

Here are some examples of the very recent past. Some time ago, the Russian government announced a draft budget for the next three years. In fact, this is a "development plan type". Why type? Because real development is not expected. Over the past 9 years, the Russian economy, according to official statistics, has grown by as much as 1.7%. Annual growth 0.2%. In reality, I think the growth was negative - remember Khanin's calculations. And 0, 2% is already a statistical error. Maybe a plus or maybe a minus. With such "agility", by 2020 Russia will be overtaken by nominal income per capita not only by China, but also by India and Turkey. In fact, the draft budget presupposes the preservation of economic stagnation. In the first decades of the XXI century, as reported by Nezavisimaya Gazeta dated October 4, this year, China overtook Russia in terms of wages, and Kazakhstan in terms of consumer spending. At the same time, poverty is rapidly growing in our country.

The oligarchs and the government, which, in fact, expresses their interests, do not care about stagnation, because stagnation is their means of solving problems at the expense of the population. The more the economy of the Russian Federation stagnates, the more profit they have, since in order for the economy not to stagnate, it is necessary to produce what is called very simply - the Sovietization of the economy. Therefore, naturally, stagnation suits them.

According to the project, less funds will be allocated to the social sector in 2018 than in 2017: 4, 86 trillion instead of 5 trillion. And we have already been told that in 2019 there will be even less and there will be the most stringent budget for all years of the XXI century. That is, guys, tighten your belts, there is no money, but you hold on! It is clear: if this course is maintained, the government will increase taxes and resort to more or less hidden forms of expropriation. One example is the "dacha story", which caused outrage.

The rich, the oligarchs, most likely, will not be touched, as evidenced by the following fact. The government made a decision, unprecedented in impudence and cynicism: not to transfer to the jurisdiction of Russia those companies, banks and corporations that are systemically important. We are talking about 199 legal entities that account for 70% of Russia's gross product. Some time ago, the president said that it was a disgrace, that nine-tenths of the transactions were carried out outside the legal framework of Russia, everything needed to be returned. The president said one thing, and the government replies to him: nope. And he motivates this as follows: "The repatriation of money for Russian companies from offshore companies will create a systemic risk for the domestic economy and weaken the competitive position of big business in the world economy."

And this only at first glance seems to be nonsense from the point of view of state interests. And from the point of view of the oligarchic segment - the very thing. This decision marks the further offshorization of what is called the Russian economy. By the way, here the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation decided to exclude the British Virgin Islands from the black list of offshore companies. Why? It turns out that most of the yachts of our oligarchs are assigned to the British Virgin Islands. The yachts have been taken care of! The oligarchs will now do everything to hide their money, and it is clear why. At the end of August of this year, the United States passed a law on economic sanctions, which directly ordered the US financial intelligence to collect complete information about the persons in the circle of our president within six months. We are talking about accounts, offshore, financial flows, connections, etc.

We count six months from August 2017 and get the very beginning of 2018. This is already the eve of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation. That is, the Americans, in fact, say: "Who are you, masters of offshore companies with? If you are with the President of the Russian Federation, then you are no longer masters and not apprentices, but you will go with an outstretched hand, or even to a zugunder." Once cunning zapadoids lured thieves from the Russian Federation to their banks, their offshore companies, convincing them that it was there that deposits could be placed. It's supposedly safe, just say: "Cracks, pax, fax!" - and international law will protect you. That is, they sang the song of the fox Alice and the cat Basilio to the thieving-rich Buratino. I will quote:

And they carried money there.

The main thing here is in the land of fools. And now these foxes and kitties threaten, spitting on the promised "crack, pax, fax", to take away the gold previously hidden on the field of miracles. The conditions are simple: "Pinocchio" must pass "Pope Carlo". They will hand over - it will be good for them, so, at least, they promise. However, as you know, Roma tratitoribus non premia - Rome does not pay traitors.

Both the draft budget and the "country history" are shaking the situation and creating instability. Taking into account Ukraine and the American games in Syria, I think we are in for trouble in the very near future. That is why one can say in the words of the rider from Gaidar's "Tale of the Military Secret": "Trouble came, the damned bourgeois attacked us from behind the black mountains. Again the bullets are whistling, and the shells are bursting again." That is, the war is moving towards our borders, and if necessary, it will need to be taken head-on, this is clear. However, in the modern world, only a madman dares to commit aggression against a state with an atomic bomb and a socially effective cohesive society. After all, the calculation of the West, by the way, as in June 1941 with Hitler, is not just a blitzkrieg. Hitler expected that a coup would take place in Moscow, that there would be discord in Moscow - but this did not happen. Recall that Woland was able to hook only those with rottenness, and so that everything does not end as in the story of the Boy-Kibalchish, in order for the broken bourgeois to flee in fear, it is necessary to create a socially effective society as soon as possible. Only it can be the subject of strategic action, the subject of our victory. Just a mobilization economy, just nuclear weapons are not enough. We need a socially efficient society, we need to reduce the level of social inequality. People can kill for money, but no one will die for money. They die for their loved ones, for the Motherland, for the highest ideals. And for those who have them. What are the ideals of the oligarchs and their state?

Unfortunately, time is running out. In 1931, Stalin said: "If we do not run in 10 years what the West ran for 100, they will crush us." I'm not sure if we have 10 years. Fortunately, there is a legacy of Stalin and Beria - this is the atomic bomb, but time is ticking. True, it is ticking under our, as they say now, partners. And the question is who will fall first. Actually, we have already gone through this. In the second half of the 1980s, the question was exactly this: who will fall first - the USSR or the USA (and with them the West)? Moreover, according to closed forecasts - American and ours - the United States should have fallen. However, the North Atlantic elite outplayed the late Soviet elite - stupid and greedy. The USSR was destroyed, and the Post-West, capitalism in its financial and criminal form, received a bonus: an additional quarter of a century of life, although the very death of systemic anti-capitalism was a sign on the wall for capitalism as a system. Today the situation is repeating itself, only the destruction of the Russian Federation is at stake, much weaker than the USSR even of the 1991 model. However, the present West in many ways resembles a rotten wall - stick it and it will fall apart. You just need to know where to poke and how - so that it does not collapse in a landslide, but collapses gradually, but inevitably, and so that he has no time for us. Finally, there is the wonderful principle of judo: use the opponent's strength against himself. There is a lot. But the main thing that should be is will. The will to live, fight and win.