Belarus: How can you count the number of protesters?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

On Sunday, August 23, another action took place in Minsk - a huge crowd under white-red-white flags, despite the blocked entrances and approaches, gathered on Independence Square in Minsk and, almost without losing in numbers, managed to get to the intersection of Pobediteley Avenues and Masherov. According to our calculations, more than 100 thousand people gathered at Independence Square and adjacent streets at 15.30. But today in the Telegram channel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs a message appeared that in fact the number of participants did not exceed 20 thousand. Since the counting of people in a crowd is usually approximate, we tried to establish an approximate number from video and photographs from above.

People began to gather on Independence Square after 13.30 - they were heading here from different districts of Minsk: from Novaya Borovaya and Grushevka, the Pushkinskaya and Avtozavodskaya metro stations, Chelyuskintsev park and other places. And although it was raining outside, the number of participants did not decrease.

By three o'clock, there were already several tens of thousands of people on Independence Square, but people still continued to gather. There was not enough space - the demonstrators took to the carriageway of Independence Avenue.

At about 3.30 pm, according to the estimates of the journalists present there, at least one hundred thousand people gathered on the square, although the passages here were blocked from the side of the overpass on Moskovskaya Street, Sovetskaya and Myasnikov Streets.

This is how it looked from above.

Today in the Telegram-channel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs there was a message that “in Minsk and other regional centers, citizens gathered from 12.00 to participate in the previously announced protest action. The maximum number of people gathered in the capital is about 20 thousand people, Brest and Grodno - no more than three thousand people.

After the gathering, citizens with white-red-white flags, banners and other paraphernalia marched along the streets and avenues of the cities. In the capital, square became the main gathering place. Independence, from which the protesters proceeded to the obelisk “Minsk - Hero City”. At the intersection of Pobediteley Avenue and Masherov Avenue, the number of participants did not exceed 15 thousand."

How many people were on the square and Independence Avenue?

So, let's look at the photos taken from above. It can be seen that at 15.00-15.30 people occupied the entire Independence Square - the crowd stretched from the building of the BSPU named after Maxim Tank and to the post office (while people tried not to occupy green spaces).

At the same time, new people approached the square - the column gradually thinned out, however, it reached the KGB building, as well as the house at 23, Independence Avenue.

So, we remember that for counting the number of people in a crowd there is a classic scheme - the Jacobs formula, according to which the approximate density of the crowd and the area are estimated, which are then multiplied.

Herbert Jacobs, who was a professor of journalism at the University of California at Berkeley in the 60s, derived estimates of crowd density A, B, C:

• A - people stand shoulder to shoulder. Density - approximately 4, 3 people per square meter.
• B is a dense crowd, but you can walk between people. Density - about 2.5 people per square meter.
• C - people stand at arm's length. Density is approximately 1 person per square meter.

Jacobs's method can be applied to any territory. To do this, you should find out the parameters of the site on which the event will take place, or estimate its size based on photographs from a drone or visual cues like "the crowd stood from this fence to that lantern."

First, we outline the area, and then we remember how people stood on it - tightly, shoulder to shoulder, or between them it was possible to walk freely. Since the crowd is usually heterogeneous, it will be useful to divide the area into conditional cells called Q₁, Q₂, Q₃where people stand with the same density.

Let's say in cell Q₁people stood shoulder to shoulder - this is grade A. In cell Q₂between people it was possible to squeeze - this is B. And in cell Q₃was completely free - this is C.

After examining the photos and videos, we distributed the density of the crowd as follows: on the square itself, people stood very tightly, shoulder to shoulder, then the crowd thinned out - it is already possible to walk between people. On Nezalezhnosti Avenue, on the stretch to the KGB building, people walked quite freely - at arm's length, and then there was a rare crowd.

As a result, it turns out that the action on this Sunday could have been attended by 177 thousand people.

But remember: no method will give one hundred percent guarantee - there is always a possibility that those who thought were wrong. Therefore, statisticians always operate with approximate values.