8 pitfalls in our thinking

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Our consciousness always has a lot of traps and traps ready for us.

If we are not aware of them, these traps can seriously damage our ability to think rationally, leading us into the field of wrong reasoning and stupid decisions. Those of our qualities that are designed to help us choose the path of reasoning, it turns out, lead us to problems.

Now you will learn about the first 5 most dangerous traps and how to avoid them.

1. The inhibitory trap - over-trusting first thoughts

“Does Turkey's population exceed 35 million? What do you think is the population of Turkey?"

The researchers posed this question to a group of individuals, and the population estimates for virtually all of the participants did not significantly exceed 35 million.

Then the question was asked to the second group, but this time the starting number was 100 million. Although both numbers were chosen at random, the estimates for the population of Turkey in the “100 million” group were, without exception, correspondingly higher than those in the “35 million” group.

That is, those who were first asked about 35 million, and then asked to estimate the population of Turkey, were given answers about 35 million, while those who were first asked about 100 million were told about 100 million.

(For those interested: in total, about 78 million inhabitants live in Turkey).

Moral: initial, initial information can have a decisive influence on the entire further process of your thinking: initial impressions, thoughts, assessments or data can "anchor", slow down subsequent thoughts.

This trap is especially dangerous, as it is deliberately used in many situations, such as, for example, experienced sellers who first show us a more expensive product, "anchoring" its price in our subconscious.

How to work with it:

Always view the problem from different perspectives.

Don't get hung up on the original, starting point. Work with your problem before moving on to making a decision.

Reflect on your own, do not rush to consult with others

Get as much data as possible and draw as many conclusions as possible yourself before falling under the influence of other people's anchors.

Use as many sources as possible to obtain information

Collect more opinions on this matter and expand your search. Don't be limited to a single point of view.

2. The Trap of the Status Quo - the desire to preserve the order of things

In one experimental group, gifts were handed out at random: half of the participants received decorative mugs, the other half received large bars of Swiss chocolate.

They were then told that they could easily exchange one gift for another. Logic tells us that at least half of the participants should be dissatisfied with their gift and wish to exchange it, but in fact only 10% of the participants did it!

We tend to act on established patterns of behavior if we do not receive positive incentives that induce us to change these patterns. The status quo automatically takes over any other options.

How to work with it:

Consider the status quo as just another possible scenario.

Don't let yourself get caught up in a stream of thoughts that carries you against the way other people think. Ask yourself if you would have chosen your current situation if it weren't for the status quo.

Be clear about your goals

Assess the situation objectively and clearly understand whether the current state of affairs is serving your goals.

Don't overstate the severity of the effort required to achieve your goals.

Often these efforts are not actually as great as we are inclined to assume.

3. The sunk cost trap - protecting previously made decisions

You have booked a non-refundable soccer match ticket. And then the evening comes, on which the game is scheduled, and you are mortally tired and the weather is raging outside the window. You already regret buying this ticket, because, frankly, you would much more willingly stay at home, light the fireplace and comfortably watch the game on TV. What to do?

It may be difficult to agree with this, but in this case, staying at home is the best option. There is no refund for the ticket, no matter which option you ultimately choose: these are sunk costs and should not influence your decision.

How to work with it:

Don't be afraid to make mistakes.

Understand why admitting past mistakes is unsettling. No one is immune from mistakes, so you should not make a tragedy out of this - it is better to try to learn from your mistakes lessons for the future!

Listen to the opinions of people who were not involved in the previous, erroneous decision

Find people emotionally independent of the previous decision and ask their opinion.

Concentrate on the goal

We make decisions with goals in mind. Don't get attached to a specific series of actions that lead to these goals; always consider the best opportunities to achieve your goals.

4. The confirmation trap - when we wishful thinking

You feel that the dollar is about to drop and now is the time to sell dollars. To verify your assumptions, you call your friend who just sold dollars to find out his reasons.

Congratulations, you've fallen into the trap of the need for confirmation: by looking for information that you think is likely to support your own initial assumption - while diligently avoiding information that defies your expectations.

This distorted perception of reality not only affects where you look for the facts you need, but also how you interpret the findings: we are much less critical of arguments that support our original beliefs, and we resist facts that contradict them.

No matter how objective we consider ourselves when we make our initial decision, our brain - intuitively - immediately switches us to alternatives, forcing us to almost always question our primary option.

How to work with it:

Deal with conflicting information

Study all the facts carefully. Do not neglect data that is contrary to your original beliefs. Be clear about what you are striving for: find alternatives or reassure yourself by confirming your initial assumptions!

Become a Devil's Advocate for a Time

(the devil's advocate is a participant in the discussion, deliberately defending a position that he does not adhere to, in order to provoke a more active discussion and reveal all possible shortcomings of the opposite point of view).

Organize a discussion with the person whose opinion you value against the decision you were initially inclined to make. If you do not have such a person, start building counterarguments yourself. Always study opposing points of view conscientiously (taking into account, by the way, other pitfalls that lie in wait for your thinking, which we are talking about here).

Don't ask leading questions

When asking someone for advice, ask neutral questions to prevent others from simply confirming your point of view. The question "What should I do with dollars?" more efficient than "Should I sell dollars as quickly as possible?"

5. The Incomplete Information Trap - Reconsider Your Guess

Ivan is an introvert (a person who is focused on his inner world). We know that he is either a librarian or a salesman. Who do you think he is most likely to be?

Of course, there is a great temptation here to immediately decide that he is a librarian. Well, really, aren't we used to thinking of salespeople to be pretty arrogant, if not cocky? However, such a rationale may be fundamentally wrong (or at least imprecise).

Such a conclusion would ignore the fact that salespeople outnumber librarians by about 100 to 1. Before we looked at Ivan's personality traits, we only have a 1% chance of being a librarian. (This means that even if all librarians are introverts, there are at least 1% of introverted sellers, which already increases Ivan's chances of being a seller).

This is just a small example of how disregard for a simple element of the available data can steer our reasoning in a completely wrong direction.

How to work with it:

Be clear about your assumptions

Don't take the problem the way it looks at first glance. Remember that to solve each problem, you first of all use the implicit, i.e. implied, not explicitly expressed information - your own assumptions. In fact, it turns out to be not that difficult to verify the veracity of your beliefs, but you must be clear about them.

Always prefer factual data to simplistic thought cliches.

Our biases - such as stereotypes - can be useful in many situations, but we must always be on the lookout for them to be overestimated. Whenever you have a choice, always prioritize facts.

6. The trap of solidarity - EVERYONE does it

In a series of experiments, researchers asked students fairly simple questions in classrooms, and, quite naturally, most students gave the correct answers.

In another group, they asked the same questions, but this time the students were actors who deliberately answered incorrectly. From that point on, many more students began to answer these questions incorrectly, based on the example provided by the research assistants.

This "herd instinct" - to varying degrees - is common to all. Even if we desperately try not to admit it, the actions of other people greatly affect us.

We are afraid to look stupid: when we fail together with many others, it is not considered shameful, but when we fail in splendid isolation, then all the bumps for the mistakes we have made fall only on us. We are always under pressure from the members of the collective, the group we belong to, to make us like everyone else.

This tendency to be like everyone else, and it is notoriously, is successfully exploited in advertising. We are often sold a product not for its valuable qualities, but for how popular it is: if everyone is amicably buying it in bulk, then why not join them?

Herd solidarity is also one of the reasons why, if a book has topped the bestseller list, then “tightly” and for a long time. Because people prefer to buy what "everyone" buys.

How to work with it:

Reduce the influence of others

After analyzing the information, free yourself from the opinions of other people - this is the first thing to do. This is the best way to make a decision without being subconsciously influenced by popular trends.

Beware of "public tutelage"

Always sound the alarm when someone tries to convince you of something, arguing their perseverance mainly by the popularity of the subject of discussion, and not by its real merits.

Have the courage

Be firm in your intention to overcome the pressure of outsiders and defend your point of view, even if it is unpopular. Don't be afraid to point out that the King is naked!

7. The Illusion of Control Trap - A Shot into the Dark

Have you noticed that the vast majority of lottery players prefer to pick their own numbers instead of using the “auto-pick” that the machine sometimes offers (ie a button that picks the numbers for you)? Approx. we are talking about lotteries abroad.

Everyone knows that no matter how we choose the numbers, the chances of winning are not reduced, so why is the tendency among players to choose their own numbers so tenacious?

Curiously, even in a situation that we are completely unable to control, we still have an irrational confidence that we can influence the result. We just like to feel that the situation is under our control.

Of course, the easiest way to illustrate this trap is with gambling, but the tendency to overestimate our ability to control a situation affects almost every aspect of our daily life.

Unfortunately, unlike the lottery example above, the consequences of decisions we make in real life are complex and interrelated. It is always difficult to assess to what extent we are responsible for the results that we get.

While some of the consequences are obviously the result of our own decisions, others are undeniably beyond our direct control.

How to work with it:

Understand that randomness is an integral part of life.

Although it is difficult to imagine, and even more so to admit, many things happen by chance - in the sense that they do not depend on your efforts.

Take responsibility for the things that you can actually influence, but remember that in many cases there is little you can change. Rather than presumptuously expect that the situation will be subject to your control, it is better to consciously think over your actions in case of any of its development.

Beware of prejudice

Consider how often your decisions are based on premises you cannot explain. Make that implicit explicit and scrutinize it - instead of unreasonably hoping to control something you don't even understand.

8. The trap of believing in a coincidence - let's discuss the theory of probability

John Riley is a legend. He won the lottery that had one chance in a million - twice! But the likelihood of such an event is already one in a trillion, which means one of two things - either the lottery is window dressing and trickery, or John came into the sight of Lady Luck. Do you agree?

In fact, neither one nor the other. Let's solve a simple problem: if, over the course of several years, 1000 lottery winners continue to play and play at least 100 times, trying to repeat the "miracle" of winning again, there appears a not so insignificant chance - 10% - that one of they will succeed.

This means that a "miracle" is not only possible - with some effort - its likelihood rises almost to the level of inevitability.

Another classic example: in a group of 23 randomly selected people, at least one couple has the same date of birth (day and month) with a probability of more than 50% (the so-called birthday paradox). Mathematical reality contradicts common beliefs, namely: most people will consider the probability fraction in this case to be less than 50%).

That's what probability theory is.

How to work with it:

Don't overly rely on your instinctive judgment of the situation.

Even if this method of solving the problem worked several times, one day it will not achieve the goal. Make sure you are objective about your gut feelings or are clear about the consequences of trusting them.

see the book Fooled by Randomness.

Beware of Post-Event Odds

It's one thing to look at the fact that someone has won the lottery twice - in retrospect. It is quite another matter when a particular person - selected before the results are obtained - wins: this, in fact, can be regarded as 1 chance in a trillion, and will cause doubts about the legality of the lottery.