Happy New Year, with new prices

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

The cost of cellular communications, food and gasoline will increase from January 1 and will grow by 5-10% during the year. The reason is the cumulative effect of VAT and the increase in indirect taxes and fees.

With the chimes striking, most of the products and services in Russia will rise in price: the value added tax will increase - from 18 to 20%. In addition, during the year excise taxes on fuel, tariffs for utilities will be indexed, the labeling of tobacco, shoes, tires, clothing and perfumery will be introduced, and it is also planned to increase the environmental tax and excise taxes on some types of alcohol. All of this will affect consumers. Fontanka learned from experts and market participants what growth in costs should be prepared for

1. Products

The increase in VAT will affect goods that are currently subject to the full rate, that is, 18%. The 10% preferential tax will remain for most food items. But the rise in price will affect food, which is classified as delicacies. These are raw smoked and dry-cured sausages, balyk, carbonade, neck, as well as ice cream, butter, cakes and pastries, caviar, crab meat and fish of valuable commercial species (for example, trout and salmon). The official increase in the price on the shelf with VAT indexation by 2 p.p. will amount to 1.7% - it will happen from January 1. But, according to suppliers, the rise in prices will not stop there. “Other components of the cost of products will grow: for example, logistics services - due to VAT and an increase in excise taxes on fuel,” commented Valery Sergeev, commercial director of the sausage manufacturer Mit Star. The rate of rise in prices will depend on the negotiation campaign with the chains. According to expert estimates, food prices will rise by a total of 3-5%.

Some types of alcoholic beverages may additionally rise in price during the year. Thus, the Ministry of Finance proposes to establish a uniform excise tax on imported and domestic wines and champagne. As a result, the collection from Russian products can grow from 5 to 18 rubles per liter (for still wines) and from 14 to 36 rubles (for sparkling wines). Beer may rise in price due to planned increases in environmental tax. So, for the disposal of aluminum packaging, manufacturers will have to pay eight times more (instead of 2, 4 thousand rubles - 20 thousand rubles per ton), from polymer - 2.5 times more (instead of 3, 8 thousand rubles - 10, 4 thousand rubles per ton). Cigarettes will also rise in price: from March 1, 2019, mandatory labeling of tobacco products will be introduced.

2. Clothing and equipment

Non-food products from January 1 will also automatically rise in price by 1.7% (with the exception of children's goods, medicines and medical products, which will retain the preferential rate of 10%). But, as in the case of food, the cumulative effect over the course of the year can accelerate inflation. This will most strongly affect products with a long supply chain - footwear, household appliances and clothing, experts say. However, the networks promise not to allow the jump. “Manufacturers of goods are already starting to include the factor of increasing VAT in the cost. Retailers, in turn, are more careful about promotional offers and promotions, says Elena Iskratova, director of macroregion management of the united company Svyaznoy-Euroset. In general, prices in the market will rise by 2-5%, she predicts. But an additional burden will be the mandatory labeling: from July 1, 2019 - shoes, from December 1, 2019 - perfumes, tires, outerwear, knitwear, bed linen, photographic equipment.

3. Cellular communication

Cellular operators VimpelCom, MegaFon and Tele2 have already begun notifying their customers of price increases due to changes in VAT. So far, the changes concern a number of corporate and archive tariffs and are in the range of 1-5%, depending on the region and tariff.“Cellular communications in Russia are generally one of the cheapest in the world, operators have a small margin, so they have to react to changes in VAT, inflation, exchange rates, and so on,” explained MegaFon. However, experts expect that the rise in prices will not stop there. “According to a survey that we conducted in November, 81% of mobile and fixed-line operators plan to increase their rates by 8-15%,” said Denis Kuskov, head of the Telecom Daily agency. “The reason is the increase in VAT, the implementation of the Yarovaya law, the ruble exchange rate. The volume of traffic is increasing, in order to store more and more data, market participants must invest in infrastructure development,”he explained. In addition, earlier market participants estimated their costs of canceling national roaming at 6 billion rubles.

4. Gasoline

Despite the government's promise to freeze gasoline and diesel prices by the end of March, fuel prices will rise, market participants say. So, from January 1, in addition to the increase in VAT, there will be an increase in excise taxes and mineral extraction tax (MET). “Only as a result of these factors, the cost rises by 4–5 rubles, that is, by about 10%,” Oleg Ashikhmin, head of the Oil Club, commented to Fontanka. The cost of fuel cards for corporate clients has already gone up, and annual contracts through the public procurement portal are already being concluded at a price of 50-60 rubles per liter, depending on the type of fuel. However, world oil prices remain a factor of uncertainty: if they continue to fall, it will be more profitable for producers to supply fuel to the domestic market, which means that prices at filling stations may decline.

5. Utilities

Payment for housing and communal services will increase twice next year. From January 1 in all regions - by the same 1.7%. Then in July, it was different everywhere, but no more than the federal government allowed. For St. Petersburg, the bar was set at 4.5%, but Smolny expects to keep within 4.3%. For example, in terms of heat and hot water, everything is already clear. If now a gigacalorie costs 1,745 rubles 86 kopecks, then from January the price will rise to 1,775, 45 rubles, and from July - to 1833, 90 rubles. Citizens pay for hot water per cubic meter. meters: now 104, 75 rubles, from January 1 - 106, 53, and from July - 110, 09.

6. Transport

Travel in 2019 will be more expensive. FAS allowed Russian Railways to raise prices by 3.9% from January 1, 2019. As follows from the information on the carrier's website, the mechanics of seasonal indexing will also change. So, in the first week of January for tickets in a reserved seat, you will have to pay 10% more than the base fare (for comparison, in 2018, from January 1 to February 21, there was a 10% reduction factor).

Air tickets may also rise in price. The reason is the rise in the price of aviation kerosene, which, according to experts, accounts for 30% of carriers' costs, as well as the weakening of the ruble. As a result, in 2019, the cost of travel packages for Russians may increase by 10-30 percent, says Maya Lomidze, executive director of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR).

But city transport for St. Petersburg residents will not rise in price: due to the subsidy, they promised to keep the tariff at the level of 2018.

7. Overseas purchases

Shopping will become more expensive abroad as well. From January 1, 2019, the amount of duty-free import for overseas parcels will be halved - from 1 thousand to 500 euros. And the duty-free threshold for goods that citizens personally carry across the border will decrease by three times from January 1, 2019 - from 1,500 to 500 euros. The permissible weight of the imported goods will also be reduced. If earlier it was possible to freely transport 50 kg, now only 25 kg.

If the price or weight of an Internet parcel or personally imported goods exceeds the established thresholds, then the owner will have to pay a duty of 30% of the value of the goods, but not less than 4 euros for each extra kilogram of weight.