How to save savings in the face of the devaluation of the ruble?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has lost against the dollar 7%, and in 2013 also 10% with consistently high oil prices - over $ 107.6 per barrel. By the end of the year, it will lose at least 2-3 rubles against the American and European currencies at such a pace, having renewed its absolute historical lows this time. In February, a slight strengthening is possible in connection with the Olympics - tourists and athletes are bringing in foreign currency.

However, already in March, a repetition of currency panic and chaos is extremely likely - in March, in particular, there will be a multi-year peak in payments by the state, banks and companies on external debt, which reached a record in $ 723 billion … dollars - almost $ 21 billion … to be paid to all subjects of the Russian low-value-added economy pipes. Many times more than those paid in January $ 6 billion … and $ 11 billion., paid in February.

Against the background of tightening monetary policy in the US and the EU, it is far from a fact that all borrowers will be able to refinance their loans on favorable terms - a surge in foreign currency is almost guaranteed. Moreover, from above 80% external debt is accounted for by Russian industrial and trading companies, in particular, metallurgists who have fallen into a debt loop and are on the verge of bankruptcy, whose net debts are dozens of times higher than their profits. The West will be extremely reluctant to refinance Russian metallurgical "zombies" and semi-bankrupts. Once again, a long line will line up supposedly deffectively effective oligarchs with outstretched hands to the supposedly "ineffective state" - at the expense of taxpayers' pockets, as it was already in 2008-2009, they will save the ruling offshore aristocracy, which during the years of the "fat 2000s" exported abroad and offshore not only their capital, but and children with families.

This will be superimposed on the intensification of the crisis in the economy and the decline in production, simultaneously with the intensification of capital flight - only in January more than $ 17 billion … - half of the volume planned by the Government for the whole year. Apparently, by the end of 2014, the 2011 anti-record will be broken. ($ 86 billion.) and only a few will fail to get close to the absolute anti-record of 2008. ($ 133 billion.). In January alone, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation spent over $ 7.8 billion and € 580 million to support the ruble - a record since the spring of the crisis 2009. In 2013, no more than $ 26 billion … which caused concern among experts. At this rate, Russia's foreign exchange reserves are depleted by $ 75-90 billion … by the end of this year.

However, the ruble is falling and will continue to fall - we have entered the era of the end of the super cycle on commodity exchanges: oil and metals will no longer grow exponentially, and the ruble will lose 8-15% annually amid stagnating energy prices and increased capital outflow to all other channels: servicing external loans and paying dividends to foreign creditors and offshore shareholders (over $ 65 billion … net investment loss), migrant remittances ($ 11 billion.), import of services (net outflow in the amount of $ 57 billion.), capital flight (of the order $ 60-70 billion.) etc.

This is a brand new reality, in which we have to live and for which we are not ready. Worse, the Government is absolutely unprepared for this reality, already in February hastily revising its key macroeconomic forecasts for inflation, exchange rates, capital flight, GDP and investment growth, etc. for the worse.

Already in the spring of 2014, the ruble may fall to 35.5-36 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year it runs the risk of falling to 36.5-37 rubles, which will provoke a rolling rise in the price of all imported goods and services by 10-15%: from food food and clothing that we depend on for 50 and 75% respectively, to medicines, cars and household appliances, for which the dependence is critical. The rise in import prices will hit the middle class and low-income strata of society the hardest, and inflation, instead of the promised 4.5-5%, will only officially amount to at least 7%. In reality, essential goods and services will rise in price by 10-12%, which will most painfully hit the pockets of ordinary citizens who have not been able to find a place for themselves on the stranded Russian "oil and gas Titanic". Inflation is primarily a tax on the poor and a trough for speculators and those who control the movement of budget flows.

The question arises: how to keep your savings and not suffer from the inevitable devaluation of the ruble? There are several tips for minimizing losses from devaluation depreciation of savings and income.

Firstly, it is necessary to refuse loans and borrowings for the purchase of non-essential goods. It is necessary to change the consumer model of behavior - to stop collecting consumer loans for the purchase of unnecessary equipment. It is important to try to reorient towards the consumption of products of domestic producers - yes, it is difficult to find a substitute for imported goods comparable in quality and taste, but it is still possible. Russian-made products will rise in price much more slowly than imports. This will save the family budget.

The same applies to tourist recreation - Sochi and a number of other "fashionable" Russian places are already uncompetitive against the background of Turkey, Egypt and even Greece and Spain either in price or in quality of service. However, it is quite possible to find places suitable for recreation not far from home - rivers, lakes, tourist centers, sports camps, health resorts, etc. This will save a significant amount of money for those who cannot afford the extra luxury. And such in Russia from 50 to 70% of Russians - only 17% of citizens have passports … A 70% compatriots never went abroad at all.

Secondly, consumption should be reduced. and to increase savings - the raw-material low-value economy of Russia has entered a crisis state and no real growth in the incomes of Russians is expected. It is necessary to have a certain amount of funds for a "rainy day" - relatives may get sick, children go to study at a university, etc.

Thirdly, in no case should you leave work and go nowhere.without a guaranteed alternative with a stable income. By mid-2014, the labor market will deteriorate markedly as the recession deepens and the downturn in industry and investment deepens. The workplace is becoming a luxury, just like in the mid-90s - you have to hold on to it until there is no better alternative. With a formally low official unemployment rate of 5.4% of the economically active population, Russia has high hidden unemployment due to downtime at work, unpaid vacations, delays in the payment of wages, etc. Easier in this direction until it becomes for sure.

Fourth, do not take out a mortgage under any circumstances and other long-term loans in foreign currency and at a floating interest rate - the ruble entered a protracted fall against the euro and the dollar, and interest rates will only grow both in Russia and in the world. Many Russians fell into debt bondage by taking out mortgages in the Swiss franc or Japanese yen in the spring and summer of 2008, when the ruble renewed its highs against foreign currencies, and then faced a multiple increase in debt service payments due to a 60% devaluation of the ruble and an increase interest rates.

Fifth, 73% of Russians with incomes below average (i.e. less than 30 thousand rubles) there are practically no savings. They have practically nothing to hide and save. Whoever has it - transfer at least half of the amount into dollars and euros. With more exotic currencies - Japanese yen, Norwegian and Swedish krona, Swiss franc, etc. - it is better not to get involved without the help of professionals, because it is necessary to understand the specifics of the foreign exchange market and the macroeconomic situation in the world.

There is a small reserve "for a rainy day" - it is better to put money on deposits in banks that are part of the deposit insurance system under the DIA - deposits of less than 700 thousand rubles.rubles are guaranteed insured. It makes sense to split savings into amounts less than 700 thousand and carry them to banks of not the first magnitude - deposits of both state banks and private commercial banks from the second and third hundred guaranteed by the state … As long as the state has money in reserves (over 6 trillion rubles, i.e. there is a margin of safety in the system for 2-3 years), there is no need to fear for this money - the government will be forced to return it safe and sound. And even small interest on deposits will make it possible to lose less on inflation.

Sixth, it is advisable to invest in yourself, loved ones and their children - in education, retraining, refresher courses, health, etc. The only way to minimize losses from the crisis and increase the chances of success is to engage in modernizing oneself … Improving your work skills and professionalism is the basis for success in the face of economic downturn and job losses. The best investment is in yourself. They will almost certainly pay off. Together with maintaining an optimistic mood, it will help you get through tough times with minimal cost.

Seventh, it is pointless to buy food in stores - although the rise in prices will noticeably accelerate, it will be stretched over time and will not be avalanche-like. Shock devaluation and hyperinflation of the 1998 model (the ruble fell 4 times in six months) is not currently threatened - the state has another $ 490 billion in foreign exchange reserves and, for political reasons, will not allow a very strong collapse of the ruble exchange rate. By that time, food products will simply deteriorate and disappear. The exception is canned food (stew), cereals and sugar. They can be purchased in advance. However, their share in the daily ration of a person is not so large as to seriously clog the cellars and refrigerators with this food.

Eighth, if there is an acute and really urgent need to replace durable goods, then it makes sense to do it now - in March, retail chains will change price tags for cars, electronics, household appliances and other imported goods. Car dealers are already promising a 10-15% rise in price, even despite the unchanged pricing policy of the auto concerns themselves. It is better to buy these goods today, refraining from senseless purchases and purchases in the second and third rounds of obviously unnecessary things and "status" toys - smartphones, laptops, tablet computers, etc. In the conditions of the crisis and the economy, the fashion of changing phones every six months or a year is becoming a thing of the past, and cars - every three years, following fashion trends and trends. It is necessary to reduce non-productive costs - they erode the family budget the most.

Ninth, for those who have funds, do not purchase precious metals and stones, as well as jewelry made from them. They will not preserve the purchasing power of savings. With the exception of rare, collectible, extremely expensive items and rare things, precious stones (including diamonds) become a very illiquid asset with an unclear market value. This is a dead weight … The situation is similar with gold - yes, over the past 12 years, during the inflation of bubbles in the financial markets and the growing emission of the main reserve currencies, gold has risen in price by 3.5 times. However, over the past 2.5 years - from August 2011 to January 2014 - gold has lost at least 37% in price, dropping from $ 1925 to $ 1250-1300 per troy ounce. Potentially, it can rise in price to the level of $ 3.5-4 thousand, but so far the market is very tightly controlled by the monetary authorities of the United States and the EU - gold is not allowed to rise in price, so as not to weaken the position of the dollar and the euro as reserve currencies. How long it will last is hard to say.

The situation is similar with other precious metals - having become a financial asset, prices for which are set speculators in the derivatives market, precious metals began to depend on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the direction of movement of speculative capital. The curtailment of programs to buy out "bad" assets and government bonds in the United States plays against gold, platinum, silver, palladium. They rise in price exclusively in the midst of crises and high inflation. Today, it is much more likely that we can talk about deflation in financial markets and deflation of bubbles.

Tenth, invest in real estate makes sense only in case of urgent need to improve living conditions. Consider residential property as an investment asset that will protect against devaluation and inflation, extremely wrong and dangerous … Even in Moscow, apartments ceased to rise in price with rare exceptions 2 years ago - the average price per square meter in January 2014 was at the level of August 2011 and amounted to about 5 thousand dollars. From a peak value of 5.5 thousand dollars per square meters, prices began to fall back at the end of 2012 with stably high energy prices and will continue to fall in the near future as the recession deepens in the Russian double-circuit pipe economy. Worse, house prices in Moscow have not been able to renew the maximum of the summer of 2008, when the square cost $ 6, 1 thousand. Since then, prices in dollars have fallen by 18%.

In Russian rubles, prices for residential real estate are at the levels of five years ago - about 173-175 thousand rubles per square meter. However, taking into account the official and very underestimated accumulated inflation losses of residential property investors in Moscow for 5 years amounted to 41%! Savings have almost doubled in value!

The only attractive investment object is economy class housing in the so-called New Moscow in the southwestern direction (where prices are being raised to average in the capital), as well as expensive and exclusive business class and luxury housing in prestigious districts of the center of Moscow. However, for the overwhelming majority of ordinary Muscovites, not to mention the residents of the regions, this housing remains an unaffordable luxury. Similar trends in most constituent entities of the regions, with the exception of those where the state started very corrupt and financially opaque "Olympic construction", artificially creates a rush demand for housing and inflates bubbles.

The price of residential real estate in Russia, and even more so in Moscow, is a derivative of the price of oil on world markets and does not depend on the competitiveness of the domestic economy and industry, but on the work of the printing press in the United States, the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the sentiments of large international financial speculators. Yes, in the last month and a half there has been a surge in activity in the real estate market. However, this is a convulsive attempt by wealthy Russians to somehow save their savings in the face of stagnation and recession.

It is worth remembering that even according to official estimates, for almost 80% of Russians with monthly incomes of less than 40 thousand rubles, residential real estate remains an unattainable dream - they cannot afford to improve their living conditions even at the expense of a mortgage: extremely high interest rates, low income levels, a high down payment and extremely high prices per square meter deprive them of this opportunity … The commercial real estate market is of greater interest, however, for the overwhelming majority of Russians, it is, in principle, inaccessible.

Eleventh, don't invest on your own Saving in the financial markets is an extremely dangerous operation in which 9 out of 10 newcomers will lose their money: in conditions of turbulence and increased volatility, even experienced asset managers incur losses. Moreover, you do not need to carry the last money or borrowed funds to the exchange - you can burn out even more than in a casino. The risks are comparable and even less calculated. At best, you can consider investing abroad - in the USA and Europe, where due to the strengthening of local reserve currencies …

In other words, Russia is entering a zone of turbulence, when you cannot rely on anyone but yourself, your relatives and friends - the state will not save the savings of Russians. As it did not do it either in 1992, or in 1998, or in 2008-2009.

It is necessary to understand that oil and gas doping has exhausted itself, the model "Growth without development" on foreign loans and the production and technological safety margin of the Soviet era went bankrupt. While the state is trying to keep the sinking "oil and gas Titanic" afloat with an archaic-de-industrialized raw materials economy, everything is getting narrower.

Until the state system is healed and there is no transition to a policy of development and creation from talking about modernization and innovation, there is no hope for the best. In this kind of situation, you have to rely only on yourself and on your common sense. At least in the next few years, we have no other alternative.

Vladislav Zhukovsky