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Six scientific scenarios for the apocalypse of humanity
Six scientific scenarios for the apocalypse of humanity

Video: Six scientific scenarios for the apocalypse of humanity

Video: Six scientific scenarios for the apocalypse of humanity
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The Finnish TV and Radio Company turned to a futurist scientist to find out how likely this or that scenario of the death of mankind is. Pandemic? Supervolcano? An artificial intelligence riot? The expert comments on six options and says which apocalypse, in his opinion, threatens us first of all.

Humanity is fragile, and there are many dangers lurking around every corner. But how likely is it that it will die in a cloud of radioactive ash or be destroyed by some robot? This question is answered by the futurist Karim Jebari.

Karim Jebari is a futurist at the Swedish Institute for Future Research. We gave him the task to comment on various scenarios that could lead to the death of humanity.

Climate crisis

While the climate crisis, with all these rises in temperature and sea level, could have enormous consequences for humanity, Jebari believes that our species is not in danger.

“The risk that this will lead to the death of humanity is incredibly small,” he says.

A scenario that could have fatal consequences for us can only be admitted if we imagine that the climate of our planet will become as hot as on Venus. But these are only theories of those who like to speculate about the end of the world, and they have no factual basis, assures Dzhebari.

However, the climate crisis is fueling other threats, such as wars and pandemics. In addition, it can affect economic growth, which can also cause additional problems (the same pandemics).

“I think the climate crisis is a very serious problem. Not because high temperatures and wildfires pose a specific threat to humanity, but because the level of risks in general is increasing,”says Jebari.

Eruption of supervolcano

There are about 20 so-called supervolcanoes on our planet - huge cavities in the earth's crust that are filled with magma. The most famous is perhaps the caldera in the US Yellowstone National Park.

Supervolcanic eruptions happen about once every 100,000 years, but they don't happen so regularly that we need to fear for humanity.

When a supervolcano erupts, the earth's crust seems to explode, and the lava flowing out of it destroys all living things around. However, a potential volcanic eruption does not threaten humanity, says Dzhebari.

"The climate change that supervolcanoes caused earlier in history happened much more slowly than the climate change that we ourselves are causing now."

The consequences can be very long-term: the climate will change for thousands or even tens of thousands of years, says Jebari.

When the supervolcano Toba erupted about 75,000 years ago, it is believed that volcanic winters across the planet were triggered. It lasted from six to ten years. Ashes and many other particles that flew into the air simply did not allow the sun's rays to pass through.

Pandemic

Since the coronavirus is raging in the world now, it is simply necessary to mention such classic pandemics as the plague or the Spanish flu.

Karim Jebari says that the virus is usually characterized by either high mortality or severe contagiousness. In cases where the mortality rate is high, a person is usually so sick that, purely physically, he cannot move and infect everyone around. However, there are exceptions, and they are what scare you.

“HIV / AIDS is not very contagious, but it takes a long time to find it. Therefore, a sick person can infect a lot of people,”says Dzhebari.

This is why a new unknown virus with similar properties could pose a threat to humanity.

Other dangerous infectious diseases are those that are carried by animals, such as the plague, which spread through rats. If the animal itself does not suffer too much, the situation becomes quite dangerous for Homo sapiens.

"It would be awful if there was a virus that could be carried by skin bacteria or mites."

However, as long as the economic resources for research and hygiene are available, pandemics in general can be controlled. But if conditions change, the ways to defend against disease will change as well.

“The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are one team. In history, pandemics have often been associated with wars,”explains Djebari.

War

Some time ago, the states of the world took everything at once and started a war. But a lot has changed since the last world war - let's take at least modern weapons and drones.

“We do not know what will happen in a nuclear world war, whether we will be able to control the process of the increasing use of nuclear weapons,” says Jebari.

He assumes that the war can begin with a small nuclear explosion, staged for tactical purposes, and after that, more and more powerful weapons will be used incrementally.

The worst scenario of a nuclear war is associated with the emergence of the so-called firestorms. The explosion in the city of a nuclear bomb creates heat and forms a microclimate with hurricane winds rising high into the stratosphere.

The soot from burning cities can block sunlight, which in turn will lead to a nuclear winter.

"According to new climate models, nuclear winters are a much bigger problem than previously thought."

The average temperature can drop by 10-20 degrees, depending on where you are on the planet. The cold can last up to ten years, which will have a catastrophic effect on agriculture on a global level.

"This kind of nuclear winter, I consider the most likely threat to humanity."

An interesting detail: Finland has one of the largest food reserves in Europe, says Dzhebari.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is already driving many of our day-to-day decisions. For example, when you ask your phone out loud to find a recipe on the Internet or see ads specially selected for you on social networks, it is AI that works for you.

There have long been AIs that outperform humans in specific areas. For example, the world chess champion Garry Kasparov lost to the IBM Deep Blue computer in 1996.

The next step in development will be the creation of the so-called strong artificial intelligence. In other words, a person seeks to create an AI that would be as smart or even smarter than a person in a general sense - that is, in all areas.

A frightening scenario implies that the person loses control of the machine, and it begins to make decisions and improve itself, and we do not even understand this.

But how can AI then kill us, specifically? Examples of Karim Dzhebari, to put it mildly, bloody.

“Imagine that he is programmed to create steel. Then he can figure out that human blood is full of iron and recycle all people, creating steel pipes out of us."

Wonderful. Artificial intelligence, even very complex, thinks very concretely. He does what he is told to do - and not necessarily what we really want him to do.

This is a favorite plot of science fiction writers, but how real is it?

“In my opinion, it is unlikely that this will happen. Already existing technologies with AI are not only very far from superintelligence - they are insufficient in their very paradigm."

Existing technology simply does not have the potential to become better than humans. Their architecture is too limited.

And since all this is pushed back into the distant future, a person, according to Dzhebari, will have time to analyze the risks and create a system that will prevent AI from getting out of control.

Space

The Universe and the galaxies closest to us are a terrible place full of hostile forces that can easily deal with us. There is a widespread hypothesis that the dinosaurs became extinct due to an asteroid. And you know what? Space is still full of asteroids.

“As for asteroids, we have studied the space closest to us quite well. We have a rough idea of where the largest stones are, and we know that they will not collide with us for several centuries,”says Dzhebari.

But we are talking about asteroids, which pose a threat on a planetary scale. As for the smaller celestial bodies, but capable, for example, of destroying the city, then, according to Dzhebari, the risk increases.

"But the likelihood that in the near future humanity will be destroyed by an asteroid, we ruled out."

It's good to hear that space boulders are not threatening us right now. But if we allow ourselves to fantasize, then, of course, it will not hurt to discuss a more fantastic scenario - aliens.

Jebari said it is difficult for him to imagine how a person, for example, could understand potential signals from extraterrestrial life forms.

“Translating from a completely unfamiliar language involves interacting in a familiar context.”

And what will happen if we do not understand each other? There will be a conflict. But who attacks first to gain a tactical advantage?

All these, of course, are only assumptions, practically not based on anything. But speculation can be fun.

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