Average life expectancy in Russia and in the world

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Paraphrasing the catch phrase of Ilf and Petrov from the novel “12 Chairs”, we can say “the statistician knows everything … about demography”. About how long people live and how life expectancy has changed with the development of mankind. Statistical methods give a general picture of the state of society and make it possible to predict expected changes.

Methodology for determining the average life expectancy

Average life expectancy (ALE) is a forecast statistically calculated using the theory of probability, which shows how many years on average people who are born or are at a certain age will live. The calculation is carried out for a given calendar year, with the assumption that the mortality rate for all age groups will remain the same as at the time of the study. Despite the conventions, the indicator is stable and not subject to sharp fluctuations. The law of large numbers, another tool for statistical research, plays a role.

In fact, the average life expectancy is an indicator of the mortality rate of the population. The first calculation methods appeared in ancient times and improved with the development of mathematics, statistics and demography. For example, they began to separately or differently take into account infant mortality. In developed countries, it is small and does not distort the overall picture. The situation looks different in poor countries, where the infant mortality rate is high, but most of those who survived the most risky period of the first three years then retain good health and ability to work until old age. If life expectancy was calculated as the arithmetic average of all the dead, then a number would be obtained that does not really reflect the mortality rate of the working-age population.

The worst situation in Africa, except for its northern part, is 40-50 years old. Live longest in Europe, North America, Australia and Japan - 70-90 years

The methodology used in Russia covers age groups from 0 to 110 years old. You can get acquainted with the algorithm by the link. In the Russian methodology, arithmetic averages for groups are used as an intermediate result for further calculations, where stepwise through the formulas of the theory of probability, an indicator is gradually derived by which one can judge the demographic situation in the country.

It is sometimes mistakenly believed that ALE is the average age of deaths during the year. Indeed, the registry office sends such information to Rosstat in the form of tables. The statistics of the registry offices on the deceased is used for calculations as one of many inputs. The final results may coincide, but this is extremely rare.

In literature and scientific use, two terms are used:

• average life expectancy,
• life expectancy.

They are synonymous and mean the same thing. The second - a tracing paper from English life expectancy, entered Russian speech and became more often used as scientific cooperation with demographers from all over the world expanded.

Russia in historical perspective

Despite the difficult internal situation in Russia, associated with the protracted economic crisis and external influences due to sanctions from a number of countries and organizations, 2015 was marked by a demographic record. The average life expectancy for men was 65, 9 for women - 76, 5, total - 71, 4 years. Never before have Russians lived so long.

Life expectancy directly depends on the policy of the country's leadership

The results of 2016 will be summed up by March 2017, but already now, according to preliminary calculations, the overall indicator is expected to increase by at least 8 months. If the forecast is correct, the male indicator will approach 66.8, and for women - 77.2 years.

All data are publicly available on the Rosstat website (Federal State Statistics Service).

There, by going to the appropriate section, you can make an interactive selection by years, periods of time and population groups.

Table: life expectancy at birth in Russia

Years	All population			Urban population			Rural population
	Total	men	women	Total	men	women	Total	men	women
1896–1897	30, 54	29, 43	31, 69	29, 77	27, 62	32, 24	30, 63	29, 66	31, 66
(across 50 provinces of European Russia)
1926–1927	42, 93	40, 23	45, 61	43, 92	40, 37	47, 50	42, 86	40, 39	45, 30
(in the European part of the RSFSR)
1961–1962	68, 75	63, 78	72, 38	68, 69	63, 86	72, 48	68, 62	63, 40	72, 33
1970–1971	68, 93	63, 21	73, 55	68, 51	63, 76	73, 47	68, 13	61, 78	73, 39
1980–1981	67, 61	61, 53	73, 09	68, 09	62, 39	73, 18	66, 02	59, 30	72, 47
1990	69, 19	63, 73	74, 30	69, 55	64, 31	74, 34	67, 97	62, 03	73, 95
1995	64, 52	58, 12	71, 59	64, 70	58, 30	71, 64	63, 99	57, 64	71, 40
2000	65, 34	59, 03	72, 26	65, 69	59, 35	72, 46	64, 34	58, 14	71, 66
2001	65, 23	58, 92	72, 17	65, 57	59, 23	72, 37	64, 25	58, 07	71, 57
2002	64, 95	58, 68	71, 90	65, 40	59, 09	72, 18	63, 68	57, 54	71, 09
2003	64, 84	58, 53	71, 85	65, 36	59, 01	72, 20	63, 34	57, 20	70, 81
2004	65, 31	58, 91	72, 36	65, 87	59, 42	72, 73	63, 77	57, 56	71, 27
2005	65, 37	58, 92	72, 47	66, 10	59, 58	72, 99	63, 45	57, 22	71, 06
2006	66, 69	60, 43	73, 34	67, 43	61, 12	73, 88	64, 74	58, 69	71, 86
2007	67, 61	61, 46	74, 02	68, 37	62, 20	74, 54	65, 59	59, 57	72, 56
2008	67, 99	61, 92	74, 28	68, 77	62, 67	74, 83	65, 93	60, 00	72, 77
2009	68, 78	62, 87	74, 79	69, 57	63, 65	75, 34	66, 67	60, 86	73, 27
2010	68, 94	63, 09	74, 88	69, 69	63, 82	75, 39	66, 92	61, 19	73, 42
2011	69, 83	64, 04	75, 61	70, 51	64, 67	76, 10	67, 99	62, 40	74, 21
2012	70, 24	64, 56	75, 86	70, 83	65, 10	76, 27	68, 61	63, 12	74, 66
2013	70, 76	65, 13	76, 30	71, 33	65, 64	76, 70	69, 18	63, 75	75, 13
2014	70, 93	65, 29	76, 47	71, 44	65, 75	76, 83	69, 49	64, 07	75, 43
2015	71, 39	65, 92	76, 71	71, 91	66, 38	77, 09	69, 90	64, 67	75, 59

The table was compiled as of 2016-12-08 Starting from 2014, the data taking into account the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

In pre-revolutionary Russia, the average life expectancy was about 30 years. The First World War and the Civil War only exacerbated the situation, after which during the Soviet era there was a steady growth as social problems were solved and life improved. Even the monstrous losses in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45 did not change the trend. By 1950, the indicator was: women - 62, men - 54 years old.

Gender graphs of lifespan for the period 1961-2013

By 1990, the USSR had reached its demographic peak, with a total nationwide of 69.2 years. This was followed by the collapse of the Soviet state, and a demographic crisis began in the Russian Federation. In the 90s, the sad term "Russian cross" appeared, which was used to describe the intersection of the curves - the growing mortality rate and the falling birth rate. The population decline was 1 million people a year, it seemed that Russia was dying out.

The turning point came in the 2000s. The country has risen. By 2012, the birth rate exceeded the death rate. Rosstat noted a shift in the average life expectancy of the population, which for the first time became more than 70 years.

Disaster of 1991-92, death rate exceeded birth rate

Russia has a huge, unevenly populated territory. The Federation consists of 85 regions with different levels of development, incomes of the population and quality of social services. Accordingly, the life expectancy in them is not the same. Traditionally, they live for a long time in the Caucasus and in the capitals - Moscow and St. Petersburg, the worst of all is in Tuva and Chukotka.

Table: Life expectancy by regions of the Russian Federation in 2013

№№	Region of Russia	Both sexes	Men	Women		№№	Region of Russia	Both sexes	Men	Women
1	The Republic of Ingushetia	78, 84	75, 97	81, 32		43	Kostroma region	69, 86	64, 31	75, 29
2	Moscow city	76, 37	72, 31	80, 17		44	Ivanovo region	69, 84	63, 90	75, 42
3	The Republic of Dagestan	75, 63	72, 31	78, 82		45	Sverdlovsk region	69, 81	63, 64	75, 86
4	St. Petersburg	74, 22	69, 43	78, 38		46	Altai region	69, 77	64, 11	75, 44
5	Republic of North Ossetia-Alania	73, 94	68, 46	79, 06		47	Bryansk region	69, 75	63, 32	76, 32
6	Karachay-Cherkess Republic	73, 94	69, 21	78, 33		48	Omsk region	69, 74	63, 86	75, 57
7	Kabardino-Balkar Republic	73, 71	69, 03	78, 08		49	Republic of Bashkortostan	69, 63	63, 66	75, 84
8	Chechen Republic	73, 20	70, 23	76, 01		50	Chelyabinsk region	69, 52	63, 48	75, 46
9	Stavropol region	72, 75	67, 91	77, 27		51	Nizhny Novgorod Region	69, 42	63, 06	75, 75
10	Krasnodar region	72, 29	67, 16	77, 27		52	Tula region	69, 41	63, 22	75, 57
11	Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra	72, 23	67, 27	77, 08		53	Samara Region	69, 40	63, 28	75, 50
12	Belgorod region	72, 16	66, 86	77, 32		54	Vologodskaya Oblast	69, 35	63, 21	75, 63
13	Republic of Tatarstan	72, 12	66, 35	77, 73		55	Mari El Republic	69, 30	62, 82	76, 13
14	Republic of Adygea	71, 80	66, 55	76, 97		56	Komi Republic	69, 27	63, 22	75, 39
15	Penza region	71, 54	65, 47	77, 52		57	Republic of Karelia	69, 19	63, 17	75, 05
16	Volgograd region	71, 42	66, 11	76, 57		58	Vladimir region	69, 13	62, 78	75, 44
17	Rostov region	71, 39	66, 34	76, 28		59	The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)	69, 13	63, 54	75, 00
18	Tyumen region	71, 35	65, 97	76, 72		60	Krasnoyarsk region	69, 06	63, 35	74, 77
19	Republic of Kalmykia	71, 35	65, 65	77, 25		61	Orenburg region	68, 90	63, 10	74, 82
20	Astrakhan region	71, 34	65, 91	76, 72		62	Smolensk region	68, 90	62, 93	74, 97
21	Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District	71, 23	66, 53	75, 88		63	Perm Territory	68, 75	62, 61	74, 89
22	Tambov Region	70, 93	64, 87	77, 15		64	The Republic of Khakassia	68, 57	62, 95	74, 14
23	Voronezh region	70, 89	64, 81	77, 03		65	Kurgan region	68, 27	61, 93	74, 97
24	Chuvash Republic	70, 79	64, 59	77, 19		66	Primorsky Krai	68, 19	62, 77	73, 92
25	Moscow region	70, 78	65, 10	76, 30		67	Tver region	68, 13	62, 28	74, 03
26	Ryazan Oblast	70, 74	64, 77	76, 61		68	Kamchatka Krai	67, 98	62, 59	74, 07
27	Saratov region	70, 67	65, 01	76, 19		69	Khabarovsk region	67, 92	62, 13	73, 96
28	Lipetsk region	70, 66	64, 56	76, 77		70	Pskov region	67, 82	61, 81	74, 05
29	The Republic of Mordovia	70, 56	64, 79	76, 39		71	Kemerovo region	67, 72	61, 50	74, 04
30	Kaliningrad region	70, 51	65, 10	75, 68		72	Sakhalin Region	67, 70	62, 17	73, 53
31	Ulyanovsk region	70, 50	64, 64	76, 30		73	Novgorod region	67, 67	60, 89	74, 75
32	Murmansk region	70, 46	65, 15	75, 26		74	The Republic of Buryatia	67, 67	62, 32	73, 06
33	Yaroslavskaya oblast	70, 45	64, 25	76, 37		75	Altai Republic	67, 34	61, 48	73, 44
34	Leningrad region	70, 36	64, 73	76, 05		76	Magadan Region	67, 12	61, 84	72, 77
35	Tomsk region	70, 33	64, 78	75, 90		77	Transbaikal region	67, 11	61, 47	73, 10
36	Kirov region	70, 26	64, 31	76, 29		78	Irkutsk region	66, 72	60, 32	73, 28
37	Oryol Region	70, 22	64, 36	75, 92		79	Amur region	66, 38	60, 59	72, 59
38	Novosibirsk region	70, 19	64, 29	76, 13		80	Nenets Autonomous District	65, 76	60, 22	75, 21
39	Arkhangelsk region	70, 16	64, 11	76, 27		81	Jewish Autonomous Region	64, 94	58, 84	71, 66
40	Kursk region	70, 14	64, 27	76, 00		82	Chukotka Autonomous Region	62, 11	58, 65	66, 42
41	Kaluga region	70, 02	64, 43	75, 51		83	Tyva Republic	61, 79	56, 37	67, 51
42	Udmurtia	69, 92	63, 52	76, 33		Note: Crimea and Sevastopol, which entered the Russian Federation in 2014, are not taken into account.

The situation is clearly shown on the map of Russia

Life expectancy in the regions of the Russian Federation in 2011

Statistical data, presented in the form of tables, graphs and presentations, are tools for the executive and legislative branches to assist in decision-making in domestic politics and economics.

Russia and the world

Life expectancy depends on many factors, the most significant of which are:

• heredity;
• quality of food;
• level of health care;
• working and living conditions;
• ecological situation and climatic features;
• education of the population;
• habits and traditions rooted in the people;
• domestic and foreign policy of the authorities.

Historically, Russia was inferior in life expectancy to its neighbors. The gap continues to this day. Main reasons:

• harsh climate and great distances;
• wars, epidemics and political upheavals of the 20th century;
• mistakes of the country's leadership, anti-people policy at the end of eras.

Interested in the standard of living in different parts of the world? Read about Mongolia: //emigrant.guru/kuda/osobennosti-zhizni-v-mongolii-i-voprosyi-immigratsii.html

In 2010, according to the UN, the Russian life expectancy of 66, 7 years was at the modest 136th place in the world ranking. Of the republics of the former USSR, the situation turned out to be worse only in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

In 2015, the indicator improved, Russia is still in the second hundred, but already in 110th place. For 5 years, the rise by 26 points, in numerical terms - 70, 5 years.

Table: UN rating on life expectancy of the population

Rating	The country	both sexes	husband.	wives	m. rank	f. rank
1	Japan	83, 7	80, 5	86, 8	7	1
2	Switzerland	83, 1	80, 0	86, 1	1	6
3	Singapore	83, 0	80, 0	85, 0	10	2
4	Australia	82, 8	80, 9	84, 8	3	7
5	Spain	82, 8	80, 1	85, 5	9	3
6	Iceland	82, 7	81, 2	84, 1	2	10
7	Italy	82, 7	80, 5	84, 8	6	8
8	Israel	82, 5	80, 6	84, 3	5	9
9	France	82, 4	79, 4	85, 4	4	5
10	Sweden	82, 4	80, 7	84, 0	16	12

Russia is among the countries with LE in the range of 71, 1–69, 7 years.

Table: Russia in the UN ranking

106	Kyrgyzstan	71, 1	67, 2	75, 1	111	102
107	Egypt	70, 9	68, 8	73, 2	100	111
108	Bolivia	70, 7	68, 2	73, 3	103	110
109	DPRK	70, 6	67, 0	74, 0	113	108
110	Russia	70, 5	64, 7	76, 3	127	89
111	Kazakhstan	70, 5	65, 7	74, 7	123	106
112	Belize	70, 1	67, 5	73, 1	110	114
113	Fiji	69, 9	67, 0	73, 1	114	115
114	Butane	69, 8	69, 5	70, 1	97	126
115	Tajikistan	69, 7	66, 6	73, 6	116	109

Considering such "positive" factors as the size of the Russian economy, the volume of foreign trade, the amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves, the position of the Russian Federation in the UN rating can be called depressing, inappropriate to the possibilities, unless, of course, we take into account the positive dynamics of the last five years.

The main reason for Russia's lagging behind many prosperous countries in life expectancy is that the level of poverty and uneven, and sometimes even inequitable, distribution of income are still high. Millions of people do not receive the guarantees of social protection declared by the Constitution of the Russian Federation. Crime, drug addiction, alcoholism, suicidal moods lead to early and sudden death. Lack of oversight by supervisory authorities over health and safety on the roads contributes to the loss of population. Deficiencies in the work of medical institutions, catering establishments, the inadequacy of food products to GOST standards reduce the quality of life, which leads to a deterioration in the health of the population in all regions. There are many problems and everything needs to be addressed.

Prospects for life expectancy in the Russian Federation

The demographic situation is very sensitive to external influences and internal processes in society. In order for the positive trends of recent years to be preserved and not reversed, constant attention of the state leadership is required on the entire range of problems.

The outlook for the moment is optimistic

1. The economy is showing stability. The country's leadership declares a further increase in the well-being of the people.
2. Medical statistics show a decrease in mortality in oncology, tuberculosis and cardiovascular diseases.
3. Refusal of smoking and alcohol abuse is cultivated among the population. The number of supporters of a healthy lifestyle is increasing. There is a mass character in sports and physical education.
4. In 2017, an improvement in the foreign policy situation and a decrease in tensions with NATO countries are expected.

There are many factors, some may increase, others weaken. Statistical studies of demographic processes will make it possible to concretize them.

Eduard Gavrilov

The Russian government is confident that in the near future Russia will continue to grow in the UN rating

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

Russian Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova

If the government really fulfills its plans to actually increase the income of the population and improve the quality of life, then life expectancy will continue to grow. The population can help the government to fulfill this demographic task by taking care of their health, giving up bad habits and actively engaging in physical education and sports.

The Russian public regularly puts forward a proposal to make the indicator of average life expectancy in the regions the main one for determining the effectiveness of the work of local authorities. The initiative did not find legislative support, but was not removed from the agenda. After all, the mortality rate and the value of survival for all groups of the population clearly show the state of society and the social security of its citizens.