The revival of the SMERSH counterintelligence service to fight the government

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

It is a great pity that today there is no one to fight this subversive phenomenon promptly and effectively, as well as with some "useful idiots" - useful for Western propaganda. From this there is sometimes a strong nostalgia for SMERSH.

According to the decree of the USSR Main Defense Committee of April 21, 1943, the SMERSH organization was entrusted with the following tasks: the fight against espionage, sabotage, terrorist and other subversive activities of foreign intelligence in units and institutions of the Red Army.

Quote from the movie "The Illusion of Deception". Dir. Louis Leterrier. 2013. USA, France

Today we, of course, live in a completely different world, fortunately, without a big war, but, you know, sometimes the absence of something like SMERSH to combat subversion is felt with sadness especially acutely.

For example, now, against the backdrop of a sharp surge of panic hype around "we will all die", individuals decided to "cheer up" the people with a "fatal outflow" of capital from Russian banks. It seems like some 5-6 weeks ago, the Russian economy was assessed as quite stable, and the banking system was stable and even developing normally, and now suddenly, bam, and that's it: the economy is choking, banks are dying, people will be left without hard earned money.

Here is what, for example, a member of the presidium of the Stolypin Club, Vladislav Zhukovsky, writes:

Unprecedented - exactly how? Never before has anyone withdrawn so much money from us at once? Truth? Are we drowning? Let's try to figure it out. To begin with, with basic numbers, without mixing, as the speaker above, round with green, that is, deposits of individuals with corporate ones. Because they are completely different things.

In a booth with an ATM

Quote from the movie "ATM". Dir. David Brooks. 2012. USA, Canada

First, we look at how much money there is in the Russian banking system. According to the official data of the Bank of Russia, as of January 1, 2020, only the top twenty largest banks had more than 22 trillion rubles in deposits of legal entities. And the regulator fixed another 30, 55 trillion rubles on deposits of individuals. By the way, only in December 2019, taking into account the accrued interest, citizens additionally placed in banks 1.078 trillion rubles and 1.3 billion dollars (in all types of currencies).

This alone casts doubt on the validity of the alarm. Even if about the withdrawal of 1.2 trillion rubles is true, it is still less than the interest on deposits of individuals only for the last year. And if you count together with legal ones, then the amount is about nothing at all. Well, yes, in times of crisis, the turnover of many companies, if not completely stopped, then significantly decreased, thereby nullifying profits and forcing them to get into the stash. But the scale of the process so far is not even close not only to any crisis, but even to even the slightest significant problem.

But maybe there is something fatal in the details for Russian banks? In the end, this figure about a trillion rubles came from somewhere. And, at first glance, what is happening even looks like the truth.

According to a study by the Central Bank, 34.6% of the country's population or 50.7 million citizens have deposits in banks. If we exclude minors who cannot have a bank account according to the law, it turns out that almost every second Russian has a deposit. Approximately 9-9.5% of deposits are in the range of up to 100 thousand rubles. 36, 2% - from 100 thousand to 1 million. 11, 9% - from 1 to 1, 4 million 10, 3% - from 1, 4 to 3 million and 32, 6% in the range over 3 million rubles.

And what are they? Yes, actually, nothing. There really is a trillion, but upon closer examination, the figure becomes somewhat dubious. If only because, according to official data, it consists of 700 billion rubles withdrawn from deposits of individuals in March and another 326.9 billion in April.

At least from this it follows that the scale of the "flight" of money of enterprises from banks for two months of the crisis and quarantine was less than 200 billion rubles, which looks like miserable crumbs against the background of the scale of the Russian economy. The GDP of the Russian Federation in 2019 amounted to more than 110 trillion rubles, which means that the business "took from the banks" at most 0, 18% of GDP. Not a crisis never.

Safe

Quote from the movie "The Illusion of Deception". Dir. Louis Leterrier. 2013. USA, France

But maybe it is citizens who are massively cashing out deposits? It’s like a crisis, a drop in income and all that. Moreover, the Association of Russian Banks managed to send a little panicky letter to the head of the Central Bank. In the best traditions - the plaster is removed, the client leaves, boss, everything is lost!

Let's look at smart books, check, and it turns out that as of March 1, 2020, the movement to withdraw funds was noted in a quarter of the 594 million accounts opened by individuals (according to the Deposit Insurance Agency). True, its authors are not pushing more on the negative economic consequences of quarantine, but mumbling about the incorrectness of the introduction of a tax on deposit income. Well, or insufficient informing citizens about the methodology for calculating it.

More detailed excavations also suggest that the crisis is not at all the case. And not in quarantine. Cash withdrawals from deposits with small amounts do take place, but, firstly, such deposits, as mentioned above, are less than 10%, which means that the amount of real cash withdrawal is relatively small, even less than the withdrawal volumes by firms.

Secondly, half of its size is accounted for not so much by going into cash as by closing deposits with the subsequent transfer of the money that was on them to ordinary current or card accounts. That is, these funds have not disappeared from the banking system as a whole.

There is a clear process of simple reformatting of the structure of the investment portfolio of deposits as such. Large deposits, especially in foreign currency and especially in leading banks, which have lowered the interest rate the most (for example, at Sberbank today it averages 0.65% per annum in US dollars) are actively closed. As a result, the outflow of foreign currency deposits from Sberbank in March reached $ 1.4 billion, from VTB - 1.6 billion, from Alfa - 0.45 billion, from Gazprombank - $ 0.229 billion.

In the bank

Quote from the movie "Not caught - not a thief." Dir. Spike Lee. 2006. USA

But this money did not go into the notorious mattress, but went to accounts, including deposit accounts, already in ruble form. Because even with relatively low ruble rates and minus inflation, the effective profitability of ruble deposits is about 2-3%, which is 4, 6 times more profitable than deposits in foreign currency.

As a result, the same Gazprombank speaks of an inflow of ruble deposits of 2.3 billion rubles per month. Alpha press service notes a similar trend. The currency went from large deposits, but not into the pocket, but into ordinary accounts, so it is precisely as a direct outflow that the bank assesses what is happening as an insignificant movement.

But that the depositors additionally brought another 7, 3 billion rubles to their accounts, they state with obvious pleasure. And we still do not remember about VTB, where the actual total outflow of currency amounted to only ridiculous 16, 3 million dollars (yes, it’s millions, this is not a mistake), while in March an additional 42.7 billion came to ruble accounts. rubles.

In a word, even in the segment of individuals' deposits, as real banking statistics say, depositors just into their pockets withdrew no more than 0.6 - 0.8% of the same 1.2 trillion rubles "suddenly moved". Which is about 9.6 billion in rubles, or 8 hundred thousandths of one (!) Percent of Russia's GDP for 2019.

The conclusion from all this suggests itself to be simple. There is no crisis in the banking system. And there is no outflow of deposits from banks, similar to the drying up of the Aral Sea. There is a mutual overlap of three completely different processes.

Banks are quietly trying to spin up the budget for some free subsidies. Money is running. Where exactly - no difference. The main thing is the fact of movement itself. This threatens the stability of the financial system. We must rescue immediately. The budget is obliged to help. Not the fact that it will work, but why not try it?

This is sad, but at least generally understandable. As is not surprising, and the hype raised around the topic by business publications. Unfortunately, we have to admit that by now they have remained more businesslike by inertia.

Quote from the movie "The Dark Knight". Dir. Christopher Nolan. 2008. USA, UK

While in fact every day they turn yellow more and more, from that they slide into a frank hype for the sake of a hype, which can only be maintained through the maximum hysteria of the description of everything around what is happening. After all, most audiences do not usually consider the numbers systematically, content with the final conclusions of "respected business publications."

But what is really bad is the outright alarmism of a significant part of people, presumably, positioning themselves as serious experts of large analytical "thought factories". Not only those who know how to separate the grain from the chaff and calculate the really emerging trends, but also, thanks to the scale of their awareness and the professionally developed habit of always assessing the whole picture as a whole, who are resistant to attempts at panic throwing. But, alas, this is precisely what they do not show.

Rather, on the contrary, they easily pick up and fan the empty panic further. Which, given the scale of their prominence, as well as the reputation of their organizations, begins to border on subversion. Because ultimately any unreasonable, hysterical alarmism has a subversive meaning.

It is a great pity that today there is no one to fight this subversive phenomenon promptly and effectively, as well as with some "useful idiots" - useful for Western propaganda. From this there is sometimes a strong nostalgia for SMERSH.