The space that we have lost

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

"Snob" begins to publish a series of materials devoted to the study of the current situation in Russia in the space industry. In the first part: how to successfully sink your own spacecraft, how are preparations for launching a rocket from Baikonur going, what were the largest accidents of Russian missiles and what caused them.

Why do our missiles fall

The creation of the Russian underwater constellation of space satellites began on December 5, 2010: the Proton-M launch vehicle, launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome, was unable to launch three GLONASS navigation satellites into low-Earth orbit. The rocket, along with the DM-03 upper stage and satellites, crashed into the Pacific Ocean 1,500 kilometers from Honolulu and sank. Not to say that space emergencies have not happened in Russian history before, but for the first time disorder and systemic crisis were so indicative.

What happened? The upper stage DM-03 was used for the first time during this launch; it differed from the previous generation of upper stages with large fuel tanks. The designers did not make the necessary changes to the formula for calculating the refueling with liquid oxygen, and before the start of the DM-03 they refueled more than needed. Due to the additional cargo, the rocket could not pick up the required speed and crashed into the ocean. Roscosmos called this case "a banal and wild incident."

Since that day, the number of these platitudes has only multiplied and the Russian collection of fallen missiles has been replenished. Why is this happening?

How a rocket takes off

The standard procedure for preparing a Proton-M launch vehicle for a space launch follows a strict schedule.

About two months before the start, the rocket components are sent from Moscow to Kazakhstan by train in large-sized wagons. Upper stage "Breeze-M" or DM-03, which plays the role of the fourth stage, is delivered separately. It, like spacecraft, is brought to the cosmodrome by aviation. The train route to Baikonur is being built so that it does not intersect with other trains carrying bulky cargo. There were cases when the cars with such loads clung to each other, and then at least an inspection of the integrity of the rocket was required, and sometimes sending some elements back to Moscow for repair and restoration.

At Baikonur, containers are unloaded in the assembly and testing building. First, each rocket block is tested, then three stages are assembled into a single launch vehicle, and then the entire rocket is tested. This is the main principle of ensuring safety - before and after connecting the various elements of the rocket, additional checks are always carried out.

In the next hall, a satellite is being manipulated similarly, which can be called that only after and if it goes into orbit - for now, it is simply called a "spacecraft." The device is removed from the container, systems are tested and refueled with fuel, which it will use for maneuvering in orbit - to change its position for orientation in space, correct the orbit and go to a safe distance from "space debris". After the checks, the apparatus is docked with the upper stage, then with the launch vehicle and checked again.

Early in the morning, when the sun has not yet risen, the rocket in its entirety is taken to a fuel station. A train with an installation unit, a special system that can hold the rocket in a prone position and lift it, approaches a huge hangar, in which several trains can fit, under the light of searchlights. The rocket is transported slowly so as not to create additional loads. After refueling, a state commission is assembled, which makes a decision on readiness for the removal of the rocket and its installation at the launch site.

After the rocket is brought to the launch pad, the schedule is scheduled by the minute: one listing of all operations takes three pages of text. The main principle is one - constant checks of the spacecraft, upper stage, launch vehicle, launch complex, measuring points that will keep in touch with the rocket during the flight. Communication, power supply, temperature control and other parameters are tested.

Approximately 36 hours before the launch, the cosmodrome turns into an anthill, in which underground life is boiling more actively than visible from the outside. The rocket is installed, at the launch site around it, except for the guards, there is almost no one. But in reality, work is underway in underground structures, in remote buildings. Experts carry out an imitation of rocket refueling, the so-called "dry refueling", in order to check the functionality of the refueling systems. The launch itself is also simulated. At the launch complex, flight programs are laid in the upper stage. It was the mistake made at this stage that caused one of the accidents in 2011.

GEO-IK-2

Eight hours before the launch, the state commission meets again at the Baikonur cosmodrome, which hears a report on the readiness of all systems for launch. All this time, endless checks do not stop for a minute. Sometimes errors are detected a few minutes before the start - in this case, the pre-start counting is interrupted, and the start is postponed to the backup date, usually the next day.

But in 2011, these prelaunch checks revealed no errors, and this led to five accidents. On February 1, just two months after the fall of the GLONASS satellites, the Geo-IK-2 satellite did not enter the calculated orbit due to the fault of the Briz-KM upper stage. Then, in August, the Russian telecommunications satellite Express-AM4 and the transport spacecraft Progress M-12M were lost with a weekly difference. In the case of Express-AM4, an incorrect flight mission was placed in the Briz-M upper stage, which caused the satellite to find itself in an off-design orbit, from where it was brought down six months later and flooded into the Pacific Ocean. Problems of Progress M-12M were attributed to the abnormal operation of the third stage engine.

A few months later, on November 9, the notorious Phobos-Grunt interplanetary station was launched into space using a Zenith rocket. In low-earth orbit, it was supposed to turn on its own engines and enter a flight path to Mars, but this did not happen. It was also impossible to establish communication with the device, and soon Phobos-Grunt left orbit and could be renamed into Earth-Ocean, because it fell into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. The Mars station joined the Russian underwater space constellation.

"Progress M-12M"

In December, the military satellite Meridian was lost due to the destruction of the Soyuz rocket engine during the flight.

Something went wrong

In 2012, the accidents continued. Due to abnormal operation of the Briz-M upper stage, on August 6, the Russian Express-MD2 satellite and the Indonesian Telkom 3 were not launched into orbit. The reason was the clogging of the pressurization line of additional fuel tanks. Again disorder: in the tanks, as the commission calculated, there were metal shavings, which were not removed during manufacture. Three days later, due to improper operation of the Briz-M upper stage, the Russian satellite Yamal-402 was launched into an off-design orbit. He had to get to the desired point on his own.

In January 2013, three military vehicles were lost due to a failure in the orientation system of the Breeze-KM upper stage. A month later, the Intelsat 27 satellite died in an accident, as the onboard source of hydraulic power, which drives the combustion chamber of the engine of the first stage of the Zenit rocket, failed. Finally, on July 2, an event occurred that many could contemplate on live television, and after which Roskosmos refused to conduct these broadcasts. The next "Proton-M" with the next upper stage DM-03 and three more GLONASS satellites took off from the Baikonur cosmodrome. The flight did not last long - only 17 seconds. The rocket fell on the territory of the cosmodrome approximately 2.5 km from the launch complex. It was this launch that the TV presenter commented on with the famous phrase: "It seems that something is going wrong."

The enraged Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who is in charge of the rocket and space industry, promised to look into the situation. “There is a systemic crisis at the enterprise, which led to the degradation of quality,” Rogozin said and added that he intends to carry out consistent reforms.

The commission investigating the causes of the accident found that angular velocity sensors were installed upside down in the Proton-M. Because of this, the rocket, receiving incorrect data, first tried to align the flight trajectory, and then emergency shutdown of the engines and crashed. To prevent this from happening again, Roscosmos decided to change the rectangular shape of the sensors. The question of how, in general, in such a complex technique, any device could be installed in different ways, remained open. After all, even in a regular computer system unit, it is impossible to plug the cable in the wrong side.

"Express-AM4"

In May 2014, due to the fault of the third stage of the Proton-M rocket, the Express-AM4R satellite was lost - a backup device created to replace the Express-AM4, which did not reach orbit in 2011. The cause of the accident was the destruction of a bearing in the turbopump assembly of the rocket's third stage steering engine. "Express-AM4" is generally a kind of space "Kenny" or "Sean Bean" of the Russian space, which dies at any opportunity. Both accidents were a serious blow to the Russian state operator Space Communication, which provides broadcasting of all satellite TV channels in Russia: the Express trains were supposed to cover virtually the entire territory of Russia, the CIS countries and Europe with digital broadcasting.

Three months later, on August 22, 2014, the Russian Soyuz-ST rocket launched from the European Kuru cosmodrome in South America with two satellites of the European navigation system Galileo. The rocket worked correctly, but due to the incorrect operation of the Fregat-MT upper stage - the fuel line was attached to the cooling tubes and froze - the satellites were launched into an off-design orbit.

Three more accidents happened in 2015. When the Progress M-27 cargo vehicle was dispatched to the ISS on April 28 using the Soyuz-2.1a launch vehicle, an explosion occurred due to the “unaccounted for design feature of the launch vehicle and spacecraft connection”, as a specially created emergency commission described the reason. tanks of the third stage. This threw up and damaged the cargo ship. Roscosmos, together with NASA, had to revise the entire cosmonaut flight program to the ISS by the end of the year.

"Kanopus-ST"

Exactly one year after the Proton-M accident with Express-AM4R, on May 16, 2015, the Mexican communications satellite MexSat was destroyed during the flight of the Proton-M launch vehicle. The Investigation Commission recognized the cause of the accident as a structural defect in the rotor shaft of the third stage turbopump unit, which failed due to increased vibrations.

The latest addition to the Russian submarine constellation of satellites was a device that was somehow intended for the ocean - it was supposed to observe the oceans from orbit in optical and microwave radiation and could see the movement of submarines under the water column. The Kanopus-ST satellite was successfully launched into orbit using the new Volga upper stage. So, in any case, the Ministry of Defense managed to inform. However, it does not always happen as our military department claims. The satellite did not separate from the block at the right moment, but separated at an unnecessary one - a few days later, when both of them, falling to the Earth, were slightly "burnt" from friction against the atmosphere. The wreckage of "Canopus-ST" fell in the southern part of the Atlantic.

What a deadly irony.

The designer straightened his shoulders

By comparison, in five years, the United States has chalked up just five launch vehicle accidents. As you can see, Russian accidents often occur through the fault of the so-called "human factor": lack of professionalism, carelessness of performers, lack of supervision and control on the part of inspection officials. And all this is a consequence of the departure of experienced specialists, the loss of the prestige of technical specialties, low salaries and the elimination of "military acceptance" under the Minister of Defense Anatoly Serdyukov, that is, high-quality specialists from the Ministry of Defense who received all the rocket and space technology produced.

“The problem is that increased accident statistics are observed on long-operating rocket technology, the reliability of which should only grow over time. This is a sign that production technologies are outdated, and the organization of labor requires changes,”Ivan Moiseev, head of the Space Policy Institute, told Snob.

In May last year, Dmitry Rogozin demanded an increase in salaries at the Space Center. Khrunichev, one of the leading domestic space enterprises in the country, where the Proton-M launch vehicles and the Briz-M and Briz-KM upper stages, which account for the most accidents, are assembled. According to Rogozin, you cannot demand high quality assembly from people who come to Moscow (the Khrunichev Center occupies 144 hectares in the Filyovskaya floodplain) from the distant Moscow region, live in a hostel and receive 25 thousand rubles. At the same time, according to the results of the inspection of the Center. Khrunichev, the Investigative Committee opened eight criminal cases against the management, revealed the facts of fraud and abuse of power, as a result of which the Center suffered 9 billion rubles in losses in 2014 alone.

“With such a disintegration in the management of enterprises, there is nothing to be surprised at such a high accident rate. Space chiefs have been in their "space" for a long time. I hope that the force of “legal gravity” will lead them to where they should be,”Rogozin said. In the summer of last year, the Basmanny Court of Moscow sent the former deputy head of the Space Center. Khrunichev Alexander Ostroverha. The former head of the center, Vladimir Nesterov, was also charged.

The state corporation "Roscosmos" is now trying to rectify the situation, but the results can be seen in a few years - this is due to the lengthy production time of rocket and space technology. “We have had such cases in history when there was an increased accident rate. In the 1970s, a whole series of Proton accidents occurred, and the necessary regulations were developed. Then the measures taken gave a result - the accident rate dropped to acceptable values. Now we are talking about how to improve the reliability system - this is a large set of measures, but how successfully it will be implemented, it will be possible to speak only in 3-5 years,”said Ivan Moiseev.

But even if the measures taken by Roskosmos are successful, this will have little effect on the overall situation in Russian space: Russia will still remain only a space cab, forced to send foreign satellites into orbit for a foreign population.

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The space that we have lost. Part 2. How Russia Became a Space Carrier

Although Russia has been ranked first in terms of the number of space launches since 2003 - every third rocket that leaves Earth is launched by us - there is not much to rejoice at. All of Earth's astronauts, whether they are Americans, Europeans, Canadians, Russians or Japanese, get into space with the help of Russia, but, oddly enough, there is really no reason for joy. In 2015, 87 launches of space carrier rockets were carried out in the world, of which 29 were launched by Russia, 20 were launched by the United States, and, notably, 19 launches were carried out by China. It is possible that in the coming years the American launch program will be on the third line. So far, nothing threatens us, and Russia will continue to be content with the role of a "space cab" - to launch foreign astronauts and foreign satellites so that foreign operators provide satellite television services to the foreign population.

The volume of the international market for space services is estimated at $ 300-400 billion, and launch services - the launch of satellites using rockets - accounts for only 2% of this market. Thus, Russia's leadership in launches turns into an insignificant 0.7-1% of the entire world market for space services. In other areas of the market, the Russian rocket and space and telecommunications industries are also represented and also occupy a share that does not exceed the level of statistical error. Russia has nothing to boast of neither in telecommunications services and the production of telecommunications equipment, nor in remote sensing of the Earth, nor in the manufacture of spacecraft and space insurance. Why?

The problem is systemic, and it, first of all, is that Russia, in principle, does not produce anything. The manufacture of spacecraft and the manufacture of telecommunications ground equipment requires a developed microelectronic industry. Not only the rocket and space industry suffers from this "disease", but also the military-industrial complex, aircraft and shipbuilders, and the auto industry. A satellite differs from a smartphone in that it uses special radiation-resistant microelectronics, which is also duplicated several times, in case of failures: a multi-billion dollar satellite in orbit cannot be returned to the nearest workshop for repair, like a telephone. With components for both smartphones and satellites in Russia, everything is bad. The production of electronics protected from space radiation is much more complicated and more expensive than the production of consumer electronics, which, however, are not made in our country either. Nobody is in a hurry to sell electronics to us either. Naturally, there is a military production capable of small-scale or individual production of such components, but even the Ministry of Defense prefers to use bypass maneuvers to purchase American components subject to the rules for export of a defense nature (International Traffic in Arms Regulations) - this is how the dual-purpose geodetic spacecraft was assembled " Geo-IR ". In modern Russian civil satellites, the share of foreign components is 70-90% … And if before the introduction of the sanctions the Americans turned a blind eye to this, then after the introduction of the sanctions, many projects in the field of military and civil satellite construction went on time: no one gives the components, and the development and manufacture of their own takes time.

Without its satellites, it is difficult to become an operator of any space services. And if you follow the example of the state operator "Space Communication", thanks to which all satellite TV channels in Russia are broadcast, you want to order the manufacture of a satellite abroad or launch into space using the European Ariane rocket, then the Russian satellite manufacturers will not miss the opportunity to complain about you to the authorities to oblige you to buy only domestic products. And there is not much to buy.

Delta 4 Launch

“When we entered the launch services market in the 1990s, it turned out that our products left over from Soviet times were in demand. No additional investment was required in the development of technology, and the industry tried to survive on old baggage. In the 1990s, we did not produce or design anything, so today we are sitting without new technologies,”explains Pavel Pushkin, CEO of Kosmokurs, a Russian startup in the field of manned space exploration, to Snob. Previously, Pushkin developed the Angara rocket at the Center. Khrunichev, now his Kosmokurs is creating a reusable rocket that can return to earth and land like SpaceX rockets, and a tourist spacecraft for it. If Pushkin's plans are realized, then in 2020 the first commercial flights will start, during which tourists will be able to find themselves in zero gravity for 6 minutes (see the flight diagram here).

Due to the opportunity missed in the 90s, Russia has to be content with the role of a "space cab". This term was introduced in 2007 by the head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Ivanov, who was then the Deputy Prime Minister of the government and oversaw the space industry. Visiting the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara, where the Soyuz launch vehicles are manufactured, he said: “I would like to emphasize: Russia should not turn into a country that provides only launch services - a kind of space carrier”.

Over the past decade, the situation has changed, but not at all in the direction that the country's leadership would like: we began to lose positions even in our main service - carriage.

How much does it cost to launch a rocket

In 2015 alone, there were several high-profile accidents with domestic spacecraft: the Progress transport ship with cargo for astronauts was lost, the Mexican satellite was lost due to the Proton rocket accident, the Canopus satellite was lost due to a failure in the separation system -ST , and in addition three foreign spacecraft, created by various Russian enterprises, were out of order in orbit. Accidents happen every year, and a foreign customer is beginning to lose confidence in Russian rocket and space technology.

Ariane-5

In addition, the cost of these launches is constantly growing: in 2013, the launch of the Proton-M rocket rose in price to $ 100 million and became slightly cheaper than the launch of the European Ariane-5 and the American Delta-4. In addition, China and India were active. Proton is the only domestic heavy rocket capable of launching into space the most popular and profitable satellites for communications, television and the Internet. Due to the growth of the dollar and the "tightening of the belts", the Khrunichev Center was able to reduce the cost of launching Proton - the head of Roscosmos Igor Komarov assures that now the amount is $ 70 million, however, when buying launches in bulk, from five pieces. But new players are entering the market: the company of billionaire and inventor Elon Musk SpaceX plans to start operating a heavy rocket Falcon Heavy this year and promises to sell one launch for $ 90 million, although it is difficult to imagine what price will be closer to sales. The already flying rocket Mask Falcon-9, with a payload, however, less than the Proton, is sold for $ 61, 2 million, which is cheaper than the launch of Proton, European Ariane-5 and American Delta-4. The SpaceX team has already managed to lure away several contracts, which were counted on at the Center. Khrunichev, but this, however, was before the rise in the dollar. Another promising American private entrepreneur, the company of Amazon.com founder Jeffrey Bezos, Blue Origin, was the first in history to land an entire rocket after launch.

In October 2015, the head of Roscosmos said: "Now we occupy 35-40% of the market, and we do not plan to give up our positions." To do this, Roscosmos has only one way out: to continue to reduce the launch price and increase the reliability of missiles, while developing a new generation of launch vehicles. And this is another problem.

The legacy of ancestors

If we have anything to be proud of, it is the fact that our ancestors laid such a potential, such technological perfection in Russian missiles that we did not "eat" them in six decades, during which other countries managed to replace a couple of generations of launch vehicles.

R-7s were launched into space by many satellites, starting with the very first, and all Soviet and Russian cosmonauts.

The Proton rocket will turn 51 this year, and, according to Roscosmos plans, it will not retire until at least 2025. The famous royal "Seven" (R-7 rocket), which was first launched in 1957, also, one might say, continues to fly - in the form of its ideological successor - the Soyuz rocket. The first cosmonaut of the Earth, Yuri Gagarin, went into space on the "Seven". The Soyuz rightfully bears the title of the most reliable rocket in the world. It is with its help that manned spacecraft with astronauts on board and supplies for them on the Progress spacecraft are launched to the International Space Station. After the closure of the Space Shuttle program, only Russia can deliver astronauts to orbit, and in 2017, NASA will pay Russia $ 458 million for the flights of its six astronauts. Last year, various versions of the Soyuz were launched 17 times, which is more than half of all missile launches in the country.

Soyuz is also popular abroad: in order to save money, Europe buys medium-class Soyuz launch vehicles for launches from the French Kourou cosmodrome in South America. In April 2014, Russia and Europe signed a contract for the supply by 2019 of seven Soyuz-ST missiles for a total of about $ 400 million. One of the largest transactions in history was last year's order by the European company Arianspace for 21 Soyuz launch vehicles to launch 672 satellites of the OneWeb mobile satellite communications system from 2017 to 2019. At the same time, Europe has its own light Vega missiles and heavy Ariane missiles, but to launch some vehicles into orbit, it is precisely middle-class missiles that are required.

Russia cannot offer new missiles, either state or private

“We are gradually phasing out the production of Protons, but Angara has not yet been brought to mass production. Due to the crisis, the Center. Khrunichev reduced the price of Protons. But the question is, how long can we hold this price? - Pavel Pushkin asks in a conversation with "Snob". "Due to additional spending on modernization and research and development work, it will be more difficult for Angara to maintain competition without government subsidies." Pushkin says that there is still a chance that the American private SpaceX and Blue Origin will have an effect and significantly reduce the cost of their flights, which means that the cost of Russian launch services will no longer be so attractive. “But in this case, one company may simply not be able to handle all orders,” he adds. His "Kosmokurs", by the way, also wants to use the returned first stage in its project.

For his part, Alexander Ilyin, general designer of another Russian private company, Lin Industrial, which is developing the Taimyr light-class launch vehicle, believes that within five years the Russian share of the launch services market is unlikely to be under threat. “Probably, the share of the Russian Federation will continue to fluctuate between 30% and 50% from year to year. The fact is that reusable rockets are still in the experimental stage, and it is unlikely that serial production will be launched in the next five years,”he says.

These five years could be a sufficient period for our space industry to consolidate its positions and close the gap on all fronts. For example, Alexander Ilyin suggests launching service operators to reduce the cost of each launch of "disposable" missiles, as well as to take unpopular, but necessary measures to reduce inefficient workers in the industry. In parallel, he believes, it is necessary to develop technologies for the reusable use of rocket technology. Such work is already underway, although they are going to be significantly reduced, according to the new cut-down version of the Federal Space Program for 2016-2025. Another way for the industry is a kind of low-tech in the world of the high-tech rocket industry: to reduce the cost of serial products by simplifying them and using ready-made solutions. It is precisely this path that Lin Industrial will follow with the Taimyr rocket: to simplify the rocket design to the utmost, abandon the expensive turbo pump unit, and use only commercially available and inexpensive electronics.

“But the most important factor in maintaining and increasing the share of the Russian Federation in various segments of the space market, in my opinion, is not the development of a specific technology, but a general economic recovery. The country has a sufficient number of engineers who are ready to work in potentially profitable and rapidly growing industries. But if the economy of the Russian Federation continues to fall, then there will be no money in these sectors, as in all others, for development,”Ilyin concludes.

So it turns out that we have nothing to be happy about, except for 87 missile launches. Read about why Russia cannot even create the image of a successful space power and lost the race for science pop, read in the next post.