One-time quarantine won't help - social distancing until 2022

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Scientists argue that a one-time quarantine will not help bring the pandemic under control. In the absence of a vaccine or effective treatments, COVID-19 outbreaks could continue to flare up into 2025. Much will also depend on whether those who have been ill acquire immunity and, if they do, then for how long.

Perhaps some social distancing measures will need to be periodically introduced until 2022, scientists warn in a study that talks about the possibility of new outbreaks of COVID-19 in the next few years.

In a study published in the journal Science, scientists conclude that a one-time quarantine may not be enough to bring the pandemic under control, and that re-outbreaks of the disease could be much worse without restrictive measures.

In one scenario, in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment, COVID-19 outbreaks could continue until 2025.

Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard University and one of the study co-authors, said: “Infections spread when there are people infected and people with risk factors. Unless a society has strong herd immunity, most people in that society are at risk of infection.”

"Predictions that this pandemic will end in the summer of 2022 is inconsistent with what we know about the spread of infections."

While the UK government has not yet announced plans for a period when the current restrictions will be lifted in its daily communications, new research from Harvard scientists is further confirmation of the growing scientific consensus that we may well need to maintain a physical distancing regime at for a significantly longer time so that the number of new cases does not exceed the number of beds in intensive care units.

Documents released by the government's Emergency Scientific Advisory Group in March indicate that the UK will have to live with alternating periods of stricter and less stringent social distancing throughout the year so that the number of cases requiring intensive care and resuscitation does not exceeded the number of beds in intensive care units.

The prospect of alternating periods of harsher and less harsh social distancing measures raises tough questions about how outreach will be done with at-risk populations, that is, people over 70 and those with chronic illnesses.

It is possible that the authorities can periodically ease restrictions on the population, while keeping the number of new infections within the limits that the health system can handle. However, among members of the population, the high risk of infection will remain until a vaccine is developed and highly effective treatments are available to all.

New treatments, a vaccine, or an increase in ICU beds could reduce the need for strict adherence to social distancing measures, as highlighted in the study cited above."But in the absence of them, constant monitoring and periodic introduction of a social distancing regime may have to be carried out until 2022," the authors of the study argue.

As the study showed, the possible number of infections in the next five years and the degree of severity of social distancing measures will primarily depend on the current level of infection in general, as well as on whether those who have recovered from COVID-19 acquire immunity and, if they do, for how long. The authors of the study warn that this is not yet known and for this reason, accurate forecasts of long-term dynamics are impossible.

If acquired immunity is found to be long-term, COVID-19 could disappear five years or more after the first outbreak, the study said. If the acquired immunity persists for about a year, as is the case with other varieties of coronavirus, the most likely outcome will be annual epidemics.

When Lipsich was asked which of the two scenarios he considered more likely, he replied: “It would be reasonable to assume that partial protection could last for about a year. On the other hand, it is quite possible that strong immunity can persist for several years. However, so far all these are only hypotheses."

Nevertheless, according to all the scenarios worked out, if the quarantine regime is of a one-time nature, then after the restrictions are lifted, a new outbreak of the disease will begin.

In order to determine whether people develop strong immunity, it is necessary to carry out mass serological examinations, which will allow us to estimate the percentage of people who have developed protective antibodies.

Other teams of scientists have found evidence that the nature of the immune response varies from person to person: those who have had mild or no symptoms at all have a much weaker immune response.

Professor Marion Koopmans, head of the department of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, whose team is now studying the humoral immune response in people infected with COVID-19, said full and long-term immunity is rare in the case of respiratory viruses. …

“We would like to see - we hope to see - that those who have had the disease once, the next time it will be easier,” - she said before the publication of the results of their study.

Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: “This is a brilliant study that uses mathematical models to study the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission over several years, and contrasts with previously published studies, which were limited to several weeks or months."

“It is important to admit that this is only a model so far. It is consistent with the data we have, but it is still based on a number of assumptions - for example, the assumption of acquired immunity - that have not yet been confirmed. Thus, while the results of this study should be perceived as one of the possible scenarios, and not as an accurate forecast."