Will the planetary water crisis generate new wars?

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

Water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource around the world due to overuse and pollution. As these issues become more acute, tensions that have already begun to grow and continue to increase will affect all of us.

Some people compare water to oil in importance. But unlike oil, water is essential for survival.

A deep dive into the water situation on the planet shows that in the coming decades, every country must develop an attitude towards water as an economic good, a human right and a dwindling resource.

A look at three regions - the United States of America, the Middle East, and China - reveals a number of problems.

By 2025, an estimated two-thirds of the world's population will live in water-depleted areas: the Middle East, North Africa and West Asia, according to the World Resources Institute. Water scarcity is currently recognized as one of the main causes of the war in Syria and is likely to create more conflicts and increase the number of refugees.

China, the most populous country in the world, is also the world's largest water pollutant. After decades of rule under the Maoist slogan "make the high mountains bow their heads and the rivers change course", the giant nation is experiencing an acute shortage of drinking water and sees no way out of this situation.

Recognizing that fresh water can no longer be considered a renewable resource, the United Nations in 2010 established access to clean water and sanitation as a human right and incorporated them into the UN Sustainable Development Goals with the consent of all 193 member states. To ensure universal access to safe drinking water by 2030, the World Bank estimates that more than $ 1.7 trillion will be required.

Border tensions

USA - Canada

The United States is a "high stress" region, according to the World Resources Institute, while Canada is a "low stress" region.

In Canada, which has 20% of the world's fresh water reserves, even a hint of water export is taboo for politicians.

Nonetheless, lax restrictions on domestic water trade in Canada may give rise to accusations of violating the rules of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which prevents member countries from providing domestic companies with better terms than foreign ones. Canada may thus be involved in global water exports as the global situation becomes more desperate, especially in America.

Gary Douyer, a former Canadian ambassador to the United States, predicted in 2014 that over the next couple of years, the US-Canada dispute over water would become so intense that clashes over the Keystone XL pipeline would "look silly."

USA - Mexico

Two major water resources - the Colorado and Rio Grande rivers - separate the United States and Mexico. Special agreements determine how much water is diverted for each country from these sources. But the decline in supplies from Mexico in recent years has angered American stakeholders, who argue that Mexico is prioritizing its own water consumption, while the United States is prioritizing agreed supplies to Mexico.

On the other hand, Mexican stakeholders were outraged by the poor quality of US-supplied water that was not suitable for drinking or agricultural use. The water was kept in tanks and its use was limited.

Communities versus corporations

The proposal to build bottled water factories has met with opposition from communities across North America. McCloud, California, is one example of a small, pristine water town that Nestlé, a large bottling company with 56 brands, yearns for.

Nestlé in 2003 proposed building the largest bottling plant in the country that would extract massive amounts of water from the McCloud catchment for 50 years. That said, hundreds of trucks carrying water would cruise through the city every day, polluting the air and making a lot of noise. The company was forced to abandon its plan in 2009 after six years of local resistance.

The Bottled Water Association notes that bottled water accounts for only a small portion of America's water use and only 0.02% of all water used annually in California.

Pollution

Water pollution isn't just limited to Flint, Michigan. This is a nationwide problem. While lead water dominated the headlines, the study found more than 300 pollutants were found in tap water samples collected over five years, two-thirds of which are "uncontrolled chemicals." Waterways are exposed to chemicals from agricultural runoff and leaks in the system, so 40% of rivers and 46% of lakes in America are too polluted for fishing, swimming, or aquatic life.

Excessive irrigation

Agriculture takes up about 80% of all water consumed in America and over 90% in the western states.

Irrigation water comes from the Ogallala aquifer, which spans eight states - from South Dakota to Texas - and feeds more than a quarter of all irrigated land in the United States. The water is used to grow cattle, corn, cotton and wheat.

But Ogallala is a prime example of a water source that was once thought to be inexhaustible, but is now showing signs of depletion due to erratic drainage. In 1960, its water reserves decreased by 3%; by 2010 - by 30%. In another 50 years, they could be reduced by 69% if current trends continue, say scientists from the University of Kansas.

Efforts to preserve the aquifer are underway, but the situation cannot be quickly remedied. “Once an aquifer is depleted, it will take an average of 500 to 1,300 years for it to recharge,” their report said.

Worn out infrastructure

The deterioration of the water supply infrastructure is a problem throughout the country. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, about 240,000 water and heating mains breaks occur each year. An estimated 75,000 sewers overflow and discharge billions of gallons of untreated wastewater, contaminating recreational waters, causing some 5,500 cases of disease. In order to provide the population with drinking water, it will take more than $ 384 billion over 20 years.

Drought

A severe drought has continued in California for six years. In April 2015, Governor Jerry Brown announced 25% drinking water restrictions for the first time in state history.

Drought also affects the southeast and northeastern regions, thus affecting almost 47% of the country, with a dry winter expected.

Solutions

Efficiency and conservation

California is one of the worst drought-hit states, but Los Angeles is named the second most water efficient city in the world (after Copenhagen) according to the 2016 Arcadis Sustainable Cities Index. San Francisco also ranks high in the rankings. Both cities boast a high level of water reuse.

Conserving water is also an important decision. California's water metering rules and practices allow you to accurately quantify waste.

Wastewater treatment is often the most cost-effective solution in the event of a water crisis.

Cynthia Lane, director of engineering services for the American Water Association, is a strong advocate of wastewater disposal for drinking water, although she noted that "the general public is not at all fascinated by the prospect of drinking treated wastewater."

Desalination faces major challenges as it has to be done on the coast, and the cost of disposing of the residual brine can also be high, Lane explained. Bulk import is another solution. Each region must determine for itself what is more beneficial in terms of economic, social and environmental costs, she said.

For many, the problems in the Middle East are war, oil and human rights. Water is also known to be the key to stability and prosperity. Eight of the ten most water-stressed countries in the world are in the Middle East. They are prone to desertification, falling water tables, perennial droughts, inter-ethnic disputes over water rights, and mismanagement of water resources - all of which add to instability in an already tense region.

Water is politics

In the Middle East, politics and water are closely related. Typical transboundary treatment agreements treat water as a divisible resource. But according to natural resources economist David B. Brooks, agreements can help prevent conflict in the short term, but they do not guarantee sustainable and equitable management of water resources in the long term.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a prime example. During the hot summer of 2016, some 2.8 million Arab West Bank residents and local leaders complained repeatedly about the denial of access to fresh water. Israel accuses the Palestinians of not wanting to sit down to negotiate to decide how to upgrade the outdated infrastructure. Under the Oslo accords, Israel controls water resources. A joint Israeli-Palestinian committee, called upon to resolve these issues, has not been convened even once in five years.

This complex overlap of politics and basic human needs occurs in most of the Middle East.

Jordan basin

The Jordan River, which flows through Lebanon, Syria, Israel, the West Bank and Jordan, is at the center of one of several persistent interstate water conflicts. It has been a source of tension between Israel and Arab states for more than 60 years.

In 1953, Israel initiated a project to build a 130-kilometer pipeline to transport water from the Sea of Galilee in the north to the Negev Desert in the south. Ten years later, when the megaproject was completed, Syria tried to block Israel's access to large volumes of this water by creating a diversion canal that would take 60% of the water from the Jordan River. This was the cause of the 1967 Six Day War.

Water scarcity

The World Health Organization has set a baseline minimum for daily water consumption per person - about two liters per day.

In emergencies such as war, water is needed twice as much. To maintain personal hygiene and proper processing of food, even more is needed - about 5.3 liters per day. Much more is needed for washing clothes and bathing.

Yemen

Yemen's capital Sana'a and other cities are in immediate danger of severe water shortages. This will happen, according to various estimates, after 1 – 10 years if nothing is done.

Most of the water in Yemen comes from underground aquifers. A growing urban population and a preference for more water-intensive cash crops (especially khat, a soft drug) are causing groundwater levels to drop by about 2 meters per year.

The country's water problems are exacerbated by the ongoing civil war and humanitarian disaster. Three quarters of the population, approximately 20 million people, lack access to safe drinking water and / or adequate sanitation.

2.9 million residents of the capital city may become refugees due to lack of water, if the situation does not change.

Syrian drought and civil war

The Middle East has yet to survive the war over water, but water shortages have already exacerbated other factors that triggered the conflict.

While the devastating war in Syria is currently a global issue, the link between conflict and drought has only recently entered public consciousness.

From 2006 to 2010, Syria suffered from the worst drought in 900 years. Due to the drought, livestock died out, food prices jumped and about 1.5 million farmers moved from their parched lands to the cities. The influx of refugees, as well as high unemployment and other factors, sparked civil unrest, which eventually led to a civil war.

The crisis was partly triggered by ill-conceived policies 30 years ago. In the 1970s, President Hafez al-Assad (father of the current President Bashar al-Assad) decreed that Syria should become self-sufficient in terms of agriculture. Farmers dug deeper and deeper wells, drawing water from the country's groundwater until eventually the wells ran dry.

Solutions

Water use

Poor water management has created many problems in the region. Many experts agree that smarter approaches could prevent some of these. For example, research is needed to determine the number of livestock that the land can support. Conservation of water resources can be encouraged through the use of water prices. A pilot drip irrigation project quickly caught on in Syria after farmers saw they could use 30% less water to increase production by 60%.

Desalination

Desalination is a water crisis prevention or solution that has been under development for more than 50 years in the Middle East. Considering that 97% of the planet's water is salt water, this is an attractive option, but it has drawbacks. On the one hand, it is a very energy intensive process, so most of the desalination plants are built in oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain. On the other hand, leftover salt was often dumped back into the ocean, harming marine life.

Israeli researchers recently developed a more efficient system, reverse osmosis desalination, which uses membranes with microscopic pores through which only water can pass, but not larger salt molecules. This system currently provides 55% of the country's water.

China

Global pollution

Chinese authorities estimate that about 80% of groundwater in China is unfit for drinking, and 90% of groundwater in urban areas is polluted. According to official estimates, the waters of two-fifths of China's rivers are unsuitable for agricultural or industrial use.

More than 360 million people, or about a quarter of China's population, lack access to clean water.

Since 1997, water disputes have resulted in tens of thousands of protests each year.

The main sources of water pollution in China are chemical fertilizer, paper and clothing industries.

According to an official report, 70% of China's rivers and lakes are so polluted that they cannot support marine life. The pollution of the Yangtze, the longest river in China, led to the disappearance of the Baiji dolphin, which lived only in this river.

The second largest river, the Yellow River, is known as the cradle of Chinese civilization, it is also called the river of sadness due to devastating floods. Today, 4,000 petrochemical plants on its shores have polluted the waters beyond recovery.

Water scarcity

China is one of the many countries experiencing water shortages. China is home to a fifth of the world's population, but has less than 7% fresh water.

Most of this water, about 80%, is located in the south of the country. However, in North China, agriculture and industry are more developed, and there are also large cities such as Beijing.

While the map shows hundreds of rivers and streams flowing through Beijing, in fact, they have practically all dried up. As recently as the 1980s, Beijing's groundwater was considered inexhaustible, but it is running out faster than it can be replenished, dropping nearly 300 meters over the past 40 years.

In 2005, Wang Shucheng, a former minister of water resources, predicted that Beijing would be without water in 15 years.

The turning of the Chinese rivers

In an effort to remedy the water shortage in northern China, the Chinese authorities have developed a project to transfer water from the South to the North, intending to dig a 4,345 km long canal.

The project, considered a prestigious technical achievement by the regime, has been widely criticized for its high cost ($ 81 billion now) and forcibly relocating hundreds of thousands of people living along the way.

In 2010, thousands of forcibly evicted people in Hubei province protested with little or no notice. Those who resisted were arrested.

Environmentalists say transporting polluted water from the south will not solve the North's problems anyway. One Chinese official even noted that the project would create new environmental problems and "cannot suit everyone."

Most of China's water problems are seen as a consequence of the Communist Party's policies.

"Make the high mountains bow their heads and the rivers change course," was a popular propaganda slogan during the reign of Mao Zedong (1949 – 1976). For this purpose, dams were built on the Yellow River, as well as drainage collectors upstream. The number of dams in China has grown from 22 in 1949 to 87,000 today.

The Mao government aimed to "squeeze the last drop of water out of the North China Plain," says David Pietz, professor of Chinese history at Arizona State University.

During the period of mass industrialization, during the "Great Leap Forward" (1957 – 1962) Mao, a huge amount of wastewater and waste was generated, and all these pollutants were discharged unprocessed into rivers.

For example, the Hai River, which connects Tianjin and Beijing provinces, spilled 1,162 gallons of polluted water per second from 674 drains, making the river cloudy, salty, black and smelly.

Post-Maoist period

As a result of attempts to reform the economy and agriculture after Mao, China's water problems have exacerbated.

With the development of industry throughout the country, water consumption increased rapidly. Due to the lack of environmental regulation, industrial waste is usually discharged untreated into rivers and other bodies of water.

China's growing population and rising living standards are putting pressure on Chinese farmers as well. Villagers quarrel over access to irrigation canals and even commit acts of sabotage.

In 1997, the Yellow River dried up from its mouth to the Bohai Sea 643 kilometers inland.

A 2008 report from Sun Yat-sen University found that 13,000 of the 21,000 petrochemical plants located on the Yangtze and Yellow River dumped billions of tons of wastewater into rivers every year.

Cancer villages

The amount of chemical fertilizers, untreated waste water, heavy metals and other carcinogenic substances discharged into the water bodies of China have led to the emergence of the phenomenon of "cancer villages". A 2005 investigation found that the incidence of cancer in some cancer villages was 19 – 30 times higher than the national average.

Although reports of cancer villages first surfaced in the 1990s, the Chinese authorities only acknowledged their existence in 2013. The State Xinhua News Agency reported that there are over 400 cancer villages.

One example is the village of Setan in Guangdong province, where the cancer death rate has increased at an alarming rate: from 20% from 1991 to 1995; up to 34% from 1996 to 2000; up to 55.6% from 2001 to 2002. The rise in cancer incidence coincided with the start of a pharmaceutical plant near the village.

Mekong River problems

The Mekong River is the lifeblood of Southeast Asia, it originates in the Tibetan plateau and then flows down through Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.

Thanks to the large number of dams built in the upper Mekong River, China imposes severe restrictions on the use of the region's water resources. The country is accused of aggravating the effects of the drought.

Tensions around water remain high, driven by a general lack of transparency (China is not the only country building dams), an inefficient approach to water management, and a lack of an effective coordination mechanism.

Solutions

The debate on solutions for China could be endless given the scale of the challenges.

However, a recent study by The Nature Conservancy found that less than 6% of China's land mass provides 69% of its water. Therefore, it is proposed to focus on small catchments that supply urban areas. Measures to improve water quality in these watersheds include reforestation, better agricultural practices and other conservation best practices.