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What the USSR could become in 2019
What the USSR could become in 2019
Anonim

What the world could become if at key moments a different choice from the existing one was made.

I know that history has no subjunctive mood. But I think that it is necessary to "pump over variants" of historical events in order not to make serious mistakes in the future. Besides, it's just interesting.

Today I will give the probable statistics of the achievements of the USSR for 2019, which is derived from the data on the development of the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s.

1. Population of the USSR in 2019

As of January 1992, the population of the USSR was 294 million, and in January 1979 the Soviet population was 262 million.

Based on these data, we derive the arithmetic average of the population growth of the Union per year (divide 32 by 13). This gives an annual increase of about 2.46 million people a year.

And now we will carry out simple calculations, and we will do this without adjusting for the annual increase in population, taking into account the increase in the total population of the country, improved health care and life expectancy.

We get: (2019 - 1992) x 2, 46 = 66, 42

Add the result to 294 million and we get 360 million people.

That is, if the USSR had survived, its population today, without taking into account the progression, would have amounted to over a third of a billion people!

2. Economy (GDP) of the USSR in 2019

If we proceed from the official exchange rate of the ruble, then the GDP of the USSR in 1990 was 1,050 trillion rubles, or 1.7 trillion dollars. By other standards (according to the "atlas method"), the GDP was 1 trillion. Doll.

And it was the second largest in the world after the United States, whose GDP in 1990 was 6 trillion. Doll

By the way, GDP in terms of PPP (purchasing power) in the USSR in 1990 was only 2 times less than in the United States - (according to the CIA), in the Union it was 2.7 trillion. dollars, and in the USA - 5 trillion. Doll.

Now imagine that instead of the collapse of the USSR, Gorbachev and Yeltsin are following the path of preserving the country, reorganizing the army, stopping lending to foreign socialist countries and diversifying the economy. In this case, the country's GDP in 2019 could become at least the second or third in the world, and compete with the United States and China.

And if we take into account today's huge US debt of 22 trillion dollars, then the USSR and China could become the real leaders of the planet. And without debts, with state standards, free medicine and education.

In figures, if you look at the data of the USSR WFP in 1970 and 1980, it turns out that our economy has doubled during the Brezhnev "stagnant" 10 years, from $ 450 billion to $ 900 billion.

If we leave the same numbers without an arithmetic progression over the years, then the USSR GDP would increase as follows (at the official rate):

  • 1990 = 1.7 trillion. Doll.
  • 1990-2000: 1.7 x 2 = 3.4 trillion. Doll.
  • 2000-2010: 3, 4 x 2 = 6, 8 trillion. Doll.
  • 2010-2019: 6.8 x 1.8 = 12.24 trillion. Doll.

Or 34 thousand dollars a year for each inhabitant, which even by today's standards can be correlated with per capita income with some developed countries.

This is what the country of the USSR would have become in 2019 if it were not for the desire to come to "Western democracy", which in the end turned out to be the dictates of the United States and claimed the lives of millions of residents throughout the post-Soviet space.

The calculations, of course, are presented roughly, but my task is to give not an extremely accurate figure, but a general idea of ​​possible achievements.

3. General achievements and life in the USSR in 2019

Let's simulate a situation in which the republics of the USSR did not have to fall into the abyss of the 1990s and then get out of it in the 2000s.

What would have happened if the USSR had reformed the army and industry, retained technology, turned its face to the production of consumer goods, but at the same time would have retained GOSTs and other privileges of the USSR?

3.1 Space

Mastering the Moon. There is money, there is technology, there is Baikonur. I think, for example, that in 2019 the USSR would have already produced Helium-3 on the Moon, which is 1000 times more efficient than conventional nuclear fuel in a nuclear power plant.

3.2 Technology

Our education, free training, would lead to the development of robotics, a breakthrough in medicine, etc.

3.3 People in the USSR

A Georgian, Tuvan, Ukrainian, Yakut and Russian would sit at the same table and celebrate Victory Day, Birthdays and other anniversaries. And no enmity, no civil strife, civil wars, tears and other things.

This is what the USSR could have become in 2019.

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