What will the collapse of the United States be like - the revelations of analyst Peter Yeltsov

2024 Author: Seth Attwood | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-16 15:55

The American edition of Politiko has formulated "the best way to deal with Russia" for the United States - to wait until it explodes from within. But real analysts around the world are already calculating what will happen when the United States collapses.

In Politico, a certain Peter Eltsov outlined a number of his thoughts on how Americans can cope with the fear of the Russian threat, which "has been at the forefront of the minds of American foreign policy experts and government officials for the past ten years."

Fear and Loathing in Washington

In principle, the revelations of this professor of the Department of International Security at the National Defense University could not have been read after his passage that "this fear has increased especially as a result of the intervention of the Russian government in the 2016 presidential election." To talk about this interference, when the colossal (and costing tens of millions of dollars) efforts of "all the royal cavalry and all the royal army" did not even lead to the shadow of its detection, is suicide for the professional reputation of an expert. And to refer to the fear of him after the actions of Hillary Clinton's team to introduce a false “Russian trace” on the servers of the US Democratic Party have been reliably recorded and identified is suicide for the personal honor and conscience of the same expert.

However, Peter Yeltsov's revelations contain a number of iconic evidence of the helplessness of the US ruling elites in the face of real political challenges, on the one hand, and convulsive grasping at straws of the “correct” ideology, on the other.

It turns out that Russia "today is much weaker than the Romanov Empire, which existed from 1613 to 1917, or the Soviet Union." Because "this vast Eurasian country was unable to create such a national identity that would cover the entire population." That is why "the ticking time bomb of separatism, which causes such fear in Putin, will explode in 10, 20, maximum - in 30 years." And therefore, "the best policy the United States and its closest allies should pursue is a combination of strategic patience and containment … as Russia continues to slowly explode from within without requiring any outside intervention."

Fear and helplessness in Washington

At the same time, however, the American thinker symbolically, as they say, according to Freud, blurts out:

In our modern era, regional nationalism based on populist agendas poses a much more serious threat to liberalism than the new Russian authoritarianism or Putinism.

That is, in fact, the expert was inside the real fear for America. For which, it turns out, it is not so much Russia with its strong power that is terrible as regional separatism that threatens liberalism. And in whom is true liberalism embodied? Not in Russia! Yeltsov is afraid for the United States. And, according to many independent experts, he is doing the right thing.

Political analysts, geopoliticians, and even some professional Americanists have occasionally noted the growing elements of similarity between the present-day United States and the Soviet Union during its decline in the 1980s. The same unrestrained, approaching panic rate on the “only correct” ideology, grotesque, antiproductive defamation of geopolitical competitors, a growing number of ill-considered convulsive decisions in the external and internal political spheres … And most importantly, the weakening of the state's positions both inside and outside, which is increasingly recognized by the elites. And the elites in such cases cannot but act - this is hardwired into unconditional political instincts.

But the historical experience of almost all states shows that the range of options for action in such a situation is not too large. This, on the one hand, is more and more desperate attempts to preserve the state as its own habitat, and on the other, the decision to replace this habitat with a more promising one for survival. The first tendency is actually expressed in the desire to keep the crumbling building with props in the form of a tightening of the regime up to a dictatorship, including, if necessary, a coup d'etat and / or the establishment of a military junta at the head of power. The second, as a rule, results in separatism and the formation of separate states on the rubble of the former.

Of course, there are no complete analogies in history. But also complete novelty - too. Therefore, a number of think tanks are already calculating the variations of the future, after the United States of America collapses under the weight of insoluble contradictions.

Fear and horror after Washington

Where will the increasingly widely anticipated collapse of the United States lead?

We will not take the economy. Because, on the one hand, this is not a science, but a set of utilitarian conclusions from a bitterly acquired experience with a predictive apparatus constantly being in a puddle. And because, on the other hand, there are four theories for three economists, and two out of three adhere to all four.

In any case, not everyone is sure that the collapse of the American state will be followed by an immediate collapse of the dollar. There is also an "old center" of decisions in the City of London, where, in a bad situation, the Federal Reserve System can flow, and a more or less recognized payment unit will be in demand even on the wreckage of the American world until another reserve currency regains its place in the sun or again the dollar will rise.

Although it will shake everyone, of course, strongly.

Much more interesting is what will happen on the geopolitical, so to speak, fronts.

The first thing that most experts agree on is that the NATO bloc will collapse. Simply due to the fact that there are no real defensive tasks for Europe, and the power tool that the alliance served America will no longer be needed. For the presence of a conglomerate of the disunited states of America in place of the United States of America.

After the collapse of the United States, a sharp decline, if not a complete cessation of the hegemonic aspirations of the American elites in the outside world is evident. The center of the "deep state" solutions will move partly to England, partly to Switzerland. Beijing will, of course, want to take over the role of a global player and defender of economic globalism, and, according to the mind, the rulers of the "deep state" would be right to play this game with it. But the Chinese elites have been Chinese for 5 thousand years, and before this massif, which has withstood, despite all the collapse, civil wars and temporary economic degradation, the "deep-diggers" already look rather pale today. And having lost such a military-political instrument as the United States, they will find themselves in bargaining with the Chinese as mere shadows.

Moreover, at the same time they will also lose such a base of theirs as Israel. Here the experts are also practically unanimous: without Washington's holding and protecting hand, this state will rather soon undergo a general attack from its Arab neighbors. And nuclear weapons will not help, although, many are sure, Israel will win this war too. But at such a price that the living will envy those who have suffered.

Only Russia can convince the Arabs to leave a stone unturned from Israel. But he hardly wants to. Because he is unlikely to want to lose a partner like Iran for his sake - and the Persians will clearly join the Arabs, if not at all lead the anti-Israel campaign.

Fear and terror outside of Washington

Moreover, Russia will have no time for it. She will immediately have a lot of worries in the territories temporarily lost in 1991, where, you can be sure, the sides of all unfinished territorial conflicts will go wall to wall. And it will be necessary to somehow humble the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, for a war with useful Turkey and Azerbaijan for the sake of useless pro-Western Armenia is the last thing Moscow will need.

And to this it is necessary to add the suppression of conflicts between Novorossia and Little Russia, between Moldova and Transnistria, between the countries of Central Asia, some kind of reaction to the civil war in Georgia, pacification of the Baltic Nazis in the course of their inevitable under the guise of attempts to expel the Russian population from their countries.

Secondly, Russia will have clear concerns with Europe. There, in the absence of America, three centers of power are inevitably formed: Germany, Britain as the base of a new transnational financial center, and an anarchic, but still an army of migrants, on the move rallied by a network of Islamist terrorist organizations.

And here, in Europe, its eternal nightmare, which began after the Westphalian peace system, will begin to repeat itself: the nightmare of Germany, a geography doomed to exist in a ring of enemies, and the nightmare of Germany's changing enemies, afraid of such a powerful monster in the center of the continent. The phobic nightmare of Europe in the form of a strong Russia will hang over these nightmares. And also its true nightmare is Britain, with its own phobia, never, under any circumstances, allow an excessive (from its point of view) strengthening of any continental state.

Hence - the disintegration of Europe into eternally competing clusters with a background of terrorist attacks and internal wars between migrants, self-defense squads of citizens, gangs of democrats and antifa gangs. Moreover, there are no guarantees that these clusters will consist of the current states. Spain will clearly disintegrate, Belgium - too, and it is highly likely that the Islamists will have power in Brussels, and Flemish, together with Holland, will reach for Germany, unloved, but still the one where the Germans with their inherent ordnung will separate their country from migrants.

True, what will happen to Germany itself is a question. History shows that, as a rule, nationalism wins in wars with aliens. Everyone has already seen what the German nationalist state looks like.

Light and hope in the wreckage of Washington

However, here Russia will have a great historical chance not only to keep Germany from reincarnating the Third Reich, but to realize the ideal geopolitical configuration - the alliance of the German Ordnung and Russian power. Nostalgia for the GDR is still strong among East Germans, and the GDR was once Soviet Russia’s staunchest ally. And in the war against the Islamist rebels, it is the East Germans who will become the backbone of first resistance, and then victory. And you can rely on them.

In addition, Poland, inevitably distraught in such circumstances, itself, as usual, will raise the question of its neutralization by the combined efforts of Germany and Russia. And after that, the whole of Eastern Europe will fall under the influence of such an alliance. Except for the Balkans, where the eternal massacre will continue.

The union of Russia and Germany will no longer be afraid of any coats of Foggy Albion. If only because Berlin in this alliance will get rid of the nightmare of the encircled fortress, and in Russia Anglophilia will no longer have the meaning of an elite political direction. If China is also a member of this alliance - at least through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (for they do not like closer alliances in the Celestial Empire, as they never did) - then this alliance will determine the fate of the planet for a fairly long term.