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TOP-14 forecasts of technology development from reputable analysts
TOP-14 forecasts of technology development from reputable analysts
Anonim

The traditional annual event was held in London last week, at which CCS Insight presented its forecasts for the development of technology and society as a whole for the next 10 years. Some abstract assumptions can be found in this list, but there are also specific predictions. In total, 90 of them were made, but we will talk about the 14 most interesting and promising for us. And at the same time we will figure out what kind of company it is, and why its analysts generally have forecasts about our future.

What is CCS Insight

CCS Insight is a UK-based forecasting and analytics organization. It includes specialists who have worked with technology for a long time. The CCS Insight website even flaunts an entry stating that they carefully select their specialists and they have all worked in the areas of technology for at least 15 years.

Some of the CCS Insight forecasts are publicly available, for example, those given in this article, and the other part is made for specific requests for businessmen, investors and other people who need to know how this or that direction will develop.

Every year CCS Insight participates in a conference where its eminent analysts share their thoughts on the near future. This year, in addition to company representatives, the conference was attended by many famous representatives of business and technology companies, for example:

  • Cristiano Amon (President of Qualcomm)
  • Stefan Streit (Director of Marketing at TCL)
  • Olaf Swantey (CEO of Sunrise)
  • Daniel Rausch (Vice President of Smart Home at Amazon)

Below are examples of what may change in the future, with a brief description of the pros and cons of such changes.

Apple Privacy

Apple launches its 'Apple Privacy' brand in 2020

Pros:As usual, the advantages of all Apple innovations become clear only after a while. If the technology really works, it will be possible to talk about increased security. Apple is the company with the best talent in the world, and they rarely make mistakes. There have been cases of iCloud data leaks, but accounts were not protected by two-factor authentication. Otherwise, from a security point of view, Apple can be trusted.

Minuses:The only downsides are that Apple will gain even greater market influence. But these minuses will easily translate into pluses, if other market players can catch up and competition starts.

Who benefits from it:It will be beneficial for everyone, since security is never superfluous. Only those who want to take advantage of vulnerabilities and will not be able to, since they will be closed will not be happy about this.

Checking the status of the smartphone

In 2020, at least five operators will start offering subscribers an annual “health check” of their smartphones.

Pros:Recently, according to research, users have switched to updating their smartphone every three years. This is due to higher prices for flagships and a slowdown in technology development. The emergence of a large number of service centers will simplify minor repairs. For example, battery replacement. Even Apple has decided to expand its network of authorized service centers by certifying all third-party services who want this.

Minuses:On the one hand, the emergence of a large number of services leads to competition and a decrease in prices, and on the other hand, a change in their status to “official” will lead to an increase in the cost of services. The second will definitely be a minus.

Who benefits from it: This will be beneficial, first of all, for users.Even with the price increase, they will have easier access to quality smartphone repairs. As a result, they do not have to frequently change their expensive gadget.

When will 5G start working

The emergence of a large number of 5G smartphones on the market in 2020 will lead to a drop in their prices.

Pros: The advantages of reducing the price are obvious - the price will be lower. Is it bad? And the good news is that the emergence of a large number of devices with support for fifth generation networks will lead to infrastructure growth. The situation can become an avalanche. Users buy smartphones - operators build networks - users buy more smartphones - operators build more networks … And so on.

Minuses: It is difficult to find disadvantages in such a development of events. Moreover, even despite the development of new technology, old devices will not stop working, since they will be compatible with new networks, they simply will not be able to use their full potential.

Who benefits from it: Again, consumers will benefit, but operators and manufacturers will not be at a loss either. The former will receive an increase in traffic, and the latter will receive an increase in sales of various devices, such as portable routers and smart home gadgets.

Mass facial recognition system

In 2021, a reliable system for detecting potential intruders in a crowd will appear.

Pros: Crowd detection systems already exist and even know how to make predictions based on artificial intelligence. But they are often wrong. It turns out that any person can be “snatched” from the crowd for testing. As a result, he will miss the train or plane, or simply waste a lot of time. With a system that doesn't make mistakes, such situations will be almost ruled out.

Minuses: It will be difficult to find cons in such a system. Especially if it works correctly.

Who benefits from it: It will be much easier for law enforcement agencies to conduct investigations and preventive work. Ultimately, the common people should benefit from improved security. If everything works as intended, and there is no abuse that many are talking about, the benefits will be just that.

Fighting fake videos

In 2021, there will be a system for detecting fake videos.

Pros: The way artificial intelligence and other video processing tools can transform one person into another video is simply intimidating. To combat such videos, Google wants to create a special tool by 2021. There is no need to talk about individual advantages. For honest people in such a system of defining fakes, in general, there are only solid pluses.

Minuses: If you do not want to deceive anyone, then there will be no drawbacks in such a means of fighting fakes. After all, fake records can be used not only for a joke or a practical joke, but also to defame a person, and even for false accusations of crimes.

Who benefits from it: The anti-fake video tool will benefit anyone who might be harmed by them. And, of course, Google itself. If she masters this task, then she significantly raises her authority.

5G networks from Amazon

In 2021, Amazon will acquire the exclusive right to use 5G networks in at least one country.

Pros: There are rarely many benefits to be found in monopoly.

Minuses: Amazon is a cool company, but it is good where there is competition. If there is no competition in the communication market, the quality of communication will not be the best.

Who benefits from it: First of all, it will be beneficial for Amazon itself, which will receive all the cream from the market. Everyone will want to use 5G. Even if the quality is not the best, Amazon will still be in the black.

New Netflix series

In 2022, Netflix will have to look for new ways to promote as the audience stops growing.

Pros: Perhaps, new interesting features will be invented, or something from the old one has simply been worked out, but in any case, the content will not become worse from this.

Minuses: The disadvantages in this situation can only be for the company, since it will need to invest in something new.There are no more cons.

Who benefits from it: Simple consumers will benefit from this, who will receive new content or even more competition with other services. There, and Apple TV + is already a little stronger. In general, it will be interesting.

Automatic system for fixing violations

In 2022, artificial intelligence will be able to replace live judges at major sporting events.

Pros: In theory, the likelihood of errors will be lower, especially if real people double-check the decisions made by the computer.

Minuses: Cons come from pros. Now refereeing mistakes are unpleasant, but sometimes they bring very interesting elements into the game. For example, a randomly scored extra goal makes the match much more interesting. If these mistakes do not occur, the human factor will go away, which sometimes should be in any business.

Who benefits from it: First of all, oddly enough, it is beneficial to bookmakers. They will be able to accept bets without the need for adjustments for random events. Secondly, strong athletes will benefit from this, as it will be more difficult to sue them by accident or “almost accidentally”.

Samsung Galaxy Glasses

Samsung will release Galaxy Glasses in 2022.

Pros: At one time, when many were developing VR (virtual reality), Tim Cook said that he believes more in AR (augmented reality). After a couple of years, Apple began to demonstrate that these weren't just words. As a result, she again turned out to be a locomotive. There were developments in the AR sphere before that, but now it has become hysterical. Everyone wants AR. The good news is that the technology is convenient, if not overused, and with the advent of new gadgets, it will spread even more.

Minuses: The human brain is not yet ready for the fact that it sees something that does not exist. You walk in glasses, you see an advertising pole, but it is not. So you can start to confuse real objects with fictional ones. There have been such experiments and their results are thought-provoking.

Who benefits from it: If Apple doesn't have time to release its solution, it will be beneficial for Samsung. If the market is already formed, it will be difficult for the company, but we, ordinary consumers, will benefit from the competition.

Testing workers

By 2023, developer psychometric testing will become commonplace. This is especially true for software developers.

Pros: Employers will get more productive workers who can produce great results. All this will lead to better products and shorter lead times.

Minuses: It is not a fact that testing will take into account all the characteristics of the employee's personality. It may turn out that a minor feature of the psyche will alienate not a far-sighted employer, but it is she who makes a genius out of a person. It is too dangerous to try to bring such a broad concept as a person to a common standard.

Who benefits from it: If the system works smoothly, it will be beneficial, first of all, to employers and good workers. The only question is what to do not very good workers. Will they lose their chances at all? Maybe yes.

A new type of wearable device

By 2023, the lack of differences in datasets will force wearable device manufacturers to pay users for their data.

Pros: Since the development of wearable electronics will sooner or later hit its ceiling, and in the laboratory it will not be possible to calculate all the use cases, development based on user data will be a significant step forward. So the gadgets will get better and show more consistent results.

Minuses: Manufacturers already have access to some of the user data. It's just that now they are impersonal and too confused. Accessing specific users and paying them for their data is likely to impact product prices. However, the price increase is unlikely to be so significant.

Who benefits from it: Again, we - consumers will be in the black. Improving the quality of any product is beneficial, first of all, to us.

When will home robots appear?

By 2025, every fiftieth household in developed countries will have a home robot.

Pros: A home robot is good. Better yet, technology will make it available almost everywhere.

Minuses: The main thing is that home robots really help. Personally, I doubt that in 6 years it will be possible to improve the technology of their production so that they become truly irreplaceable helpers. And another question, are robots, for example, robotic vacuum cleaners considered robots? Even now they already exist, at least in every fiftieth house.

Who benefits from it: The emergence of a new type of device is not as beneficial to the consumer as competition in the market for already existing and almost irreplaceable gadgets, for example, smartphones. It turns out that, first of all, robots will become profitable for producers who will finally start harvesting from their long-term investments.

Brain-computer interface

By 2027, the brain-computer interface will move from the medical field to the commercial one.

Pros: This spread of technology will lead to the emergence of new devices and gadgets. Including, it can help in communicating with robots from the previous paragraph. In addition, the expansion of technology will allow people with disabilities to use such interfaces, which will make their lives more fulfilling.

Minuses: The main disadvantage will again be some misunderstanding of the coming too quickly future. How ready our brain will be for such innovations. If this works fine and does not cause any harm, there will be no downsides to this phenomenon.

Who benefits from it: The emergence of such a way of communicating with a computer will be beneficial to manufacturers of gadgets, which can significantly expand their functionality. It can also empower people with disabilities.

Virtual reality in the fight against the environment

By 2029, the development of virtual reality and environmental care will reduce the number of business travel by 20 percent.

Pros: Since analysts give such a forecast, having weighed all the factors, this means that we will get two pluses at once. Firstly, humanity will start to care more about the environment, and secondly, virtual reality technologies will reach a new level in these 10 years.

Minuses: The development of instant messengers, telephony and other means of communication has already led to the fact that we almost never meet with each other, preferring to communicate remotely. The advent of virtual reality will be another pebble in the garden in order to finally lock up at home. As a result, we will communicate with the world through virtual reality, with a robot through a brain interface, and order food remotely. Not such a good prospect.

Who benefits from it: Let's not talk about sad things. The development of technology is beneficial to everyone. As well as the fight for the environment. We all have to live in this world and we have nothing else yet.

Forecast for 10 years

In addition to the specific forecasts for the next decade, given above, more general issues were discussed at the conference. For example, they talked a lot about the heavy burden on the world economy. This will affect all countries, not just developed or developing countries.

They also talked about technological nationalism. Experts called such a strange term situations when the governments of countries use large technology companies as an instrument of their policy. China and Huawei were cited as examples.

In general, it was noted that in 2010, technology companies accumulated $ 1 trillion in profit, and in 2019, already $ 1.7 trillion. This suggests that such companies are gaining more and more weight and once again confirm the manufacturability of our time.

The urgency of the fight for the environment was separately noted just against the background of the growth of such companies and the transition to even greater consumption of energy, which must be obtained somehow. Even a simple transition to 5G networks will require significantly higher energy costs.Therefore, we need to think about how to get energy without harming the already “shaken health” of our planet.

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