Alcohol is implicated in 86% of homicides, 72% of robberies, 64% of sex crimes, 57% of domestic violence and 54% of child abuse cases. With an increase in the sale of vodka by 1%, the increase in the homicide rate among men rises by 1.1%. In Russia / USSR, the minimum homicide rate occurred at the peak of Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign, in 1986.
Yuri Razvodovsky, a researcher at the Research Laboratory of Biomedical Problems of Addiction Treatment at Grodno State Medical University, shows the relationship between the level of vodka consumption and murder by the example of Belarus (Social and Clinical Psychiatry, No. 1, 2006). It can be assumed with a high degree of confidence that such dependence should be observed in Russia as well - in a country with approximately the same level of drunkenness as in Belarus, and with a similar socio-clinical picture of the state of society.
Numerous studies indicate the existence of a relationship between alcohol consumption and verbal aggression, aggressive thoughts, domestic violence, violent injury, sexual aggression, homicide and suicide. There is evidence (Pernanen K. Alcohol in Human Violence. - New York: Guilford Press, 1991), according to which alcohol is involved in 86% of homicides, 72% of robberies, 64% of sexual crimes, 57% of domestic violence and 54% of violence. over children. In Russia, about 80% of murderers and 60% of their victims drank alcohol immediately before the crime was committed. In New York State, 50% of murders are committed while intoxicated.
At the same time, the average level of alcohol in the blood of criminals at the time of the crime was 0.28%, which corresponds to the average degree of alcohol intoxication. The more serious the crime, the more likely it was committed under the influence of alcohol. In trauma departments, patients with violent injuries were found to have blood alcohol 2-5 times more often than patients with injuries of nonviolent etiology.
A positive relationship was found between alcohol consumption and sexual violence. Moreover, the most serious crimes under the influence of alcohol are committed by former intimate partners. Half of the men undergoing alcohol treatment abused their intimate partners during the year prior to hospitalization.
Time series analysis based on homicide rates and consumption rates for various alcoholic beverages in the United States from 1934 to 1994 showed a positive relationship between overall alcohol consumption and homicide rates. This relationship was more pronounced for the white population than for the colored. The study also found that homicide rates among whites rose with increased consumption of hard liquor.
Time series analysis based on data on sales of various types of alcoholic beverages and homicide rates in Belarus for the period from 1970 to 1999 showed that the homicide rate correlates with a high degree of certainty with the level of vodka sales per capita. At the same time, an increase in the level of sales of vodka by 1% is accompanied by an increase in the murder rate by 1.14%.
A typical murder in a state of intoxication is murder on a domestic basis as a result of a quarrel between drinking companions. The most convincing are data that reflect temporal dynamics in different regions, that is, cross-sectional analysis of time series. This analysis, carried out for 48 US states, showed a highly significant relationship between the level of alcohol sales and the rate of rape, assault and robbery. Time series analysis from 1950 to 1995, based on data from 14 European countries, showed that overall alcohol consumption was statistically significantly correlated with homicide rates in 5 countries. The level of beer consumption is positively correlated with the homicide rate in 4 countries, the level of wine consumption in 2 countries, the level of consumption of spirits also in 2 countries. A stronger relationship between overall alcohol consumption and homicide rates was found in the Nordic countries, and weaker in Southern Europe.
These data support the hypothesis that the homicide rate is more closely related to the level of alcohol consumption in countries where the intoxication-oriented pattern of alcohol consumption prevails.
Now let's see how these phenomena are connected - the dynamics of sex and age mortality rates as a result of homicides and the dynamics of the level of sales of various types of alcoholic beverages per capita - in Belarus in the period from 1981 to 2001.
Between 1981 and 2001, the level of alcohol sales per capita decreased by 13% (from 10, 2 to 8, 8 liters). As a result of the 1985-1988 anti-alcohol campaign, the overall level of alcohol sales decreased from 9.8 liters in 1984 to 8.28 liters in 1985 (-11%), to 5.8 liters in 1986 (-41%) and up to 4.4 liters in 1987 (-55%). The level of vodka sales for the period under review increased by 37% (from 3.0 to 4.1 liters). Between 1984 and 1987, this figure fell by 34%. The level of wine sales in the period from 1981 to 2001 decreased by 36% (from 5.9 to 3.8 liters. The level of beer sales in the period from 1981 to 2001 decreased by 31% (from 1.3 to 0.9 liters) The growth in the level of sales of vodka against the background of a sharp decline in the level of sales of wine, which was observed in the second half of the 80s and the first half of the 90s of the last century, led to a predominance of strong alcoholic beverages in the sales structure, which was reflected in the level of violent mortality.
The homicide rate in the period from 1981 to 2001 among men increased by 2, 4 times (from 6, 6 to 15, 7 per 100 thousand population), and among women - by 2, 2 times (from 3, 4 to 7, 3 per 100 thousand population). Between 1981 and 1986, this figure fell by 12% among men and by 24% among women.
The data indicate a multidirectional dynamics of the homicide rate among men in the period under review: a sharp decline in this indicator during the 1985-1988 anti-alcohol campaign, a sharp increase in the first half of the 90s, followed by a stabilization of this indicator. The lowest male homicide rate was recorded in 1986. This indicator reached its peak in 1998 and exceeded the level of 1986 by 3, 1 times. The dynamics of the homicide rate among women generally corresponds to the dynamics of this indicator among men: a sharp decline during the anti-alcohol campaign, a sharp increase in the first half of the 90s of the last century. The lowest female homicide rate was recorded in 1986, and the highest was recorded in 1995. Compared to the minimum level, this indicator has grown 2.9 times.
From the equation we derived, it follows that an increase in the level of vodka sales by one liter is accompanied by an increase in the homicide rate among men by 3, 3 cases per 100 thousand population. With an increase in vodka sales by 1%, the homicide rate among men is projected to rise by 1.1%.
One of the most effective ways to combat “non-professional crime” is to drastically reduce vodka consumption. With a decrease in this indicator by 2, 2, 2 times, the level of murders and other violent crimes may fall - as was the case in the anti-alcohol campaign under Gorbachev.